The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[MATTROSE94]

A Kasich vs Sanders race may make New Jersey competitive depending on the type of campaign that both candidates run.

[MATTROSE94]

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal.

Donnelly was already done way before his vote on the Iran deal. He will be lucky to crack 45% in his reelection bid now.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

If the Democrats nominate Evan Bayh for VP, and the GOP nominates Trump or some other whacko (and/or splits between the Tea Party and the establishment), I could see a Democrat carrying Indiana by a slim margin. It would help if the economy tanks under a Republican president, as happened in 2008.

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal. "D" next to his name.

Fixed.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well first we would have to be accepted into the United States

[Antonio the Sixth]

California? If Republicans somehow managed to make themselves attractive to Hispanics.

[DS0816]

If you live in a base state for the Republicans or for the Democrats … "circumstances" for it having emerged as a "tossup" state, for a given presidential election, will result in the party, which normally is on the outs with your home state, winning that presidential election.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

If the Democrats nominate Evan Bayh for VP, and the GOP nominates Trump or some other whacko (and/or splits between the Tea Party and the establishment), I could see a Democrat carrying Indiana by a slim margin. It would help if the economy tanks under a Republican president, as happened in 2008.

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal. "D" next to his name.

Fixed.

Pulling one of my tricks there Truman. Silent Joe will lose to the GOP (Stutzman, Holcomb, Young) by a lot.

[Figueira]

If the Democrats nominate Evan Bayh for VP, and the GOP nominates Trump or some other whacko (and/or splits between the Tea Party and the establishment), I could see a Democrat carrying Indiana by a slim margin. It would help if the economy tanks under a Republican president, as happened in 2008.

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal. "D" next to his name.

Fixed.

Pulling one of my tricks there Truman. Silent Joe will lose to the GOP (Stutzman, Holcomb, Young) by a lot.

Is he wrong, though?

[Clark Kent]

Alright, let me do one for every state (WARNING: Lots of maps):

Utah:

D+51

Wyoming:

D+43

Oklahoma:

D+40

Alabama:

D+37

Idaho:

D+34

Arkansas and West Virginia:

D+27

Kentucky and Louisiana:

D+26

Nebraska:

D+25

Kansas and Tennessee:

D+24

Mississippi:

D+22

Texas, North and South Dakota:

D+20

[Clark Kent]

South Carolina:

D+18

Alaska and Montana:

D+16

Indiana:

D+14

Missouri and Georgia:

D+13

Arizona:

D+12

North Carolina:

D+6

Florida:

D+3

Ohio:

D+1

Virginia and New Hampshire:

EVEN

[Clark Kent]

Colorado and Iowa:

R+1

Pennsylvania and Nevada:

R+2

Wisconsin:

R+3

Minnesota:

R+4

New Mexico and Michigan:

R+5

Oregon:

R+7

Maine:

R+8

Washington:

R+9

Connecticut:

R+12

New Jersey and Illinois:

R+13

Delaware:

R+15

[Clark Kent]

Massachusetts:

R+16

Rhode Island:

R+17

California:

R+19

Maryland and Vermont:

R+25

New York:

R+27

Hawaii:

R+31


I think it's actually impossible for DC to be a tossup in any situation.

[RINO Tom]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

[Figueira]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

MA is currently trending Republican (although I kind of doubt it's a long term trend) so I think it's perfectly plausible for MA to flip before VT, to the extent that it's plausible for either of them to flip in the first place.

[Clark Kent]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

[RINO Tom]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

Fine, then I think you're putting too much weight on Obama era polarization.  WV may vote to the right of KS now, but it has a deeply Democratic tradition and huge Dem infrastructure there.  It'd be much more likely to flip to a moderate Democrat than a state like KS that has such a deep Republican heritage (it hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to DC in over 80 years).  Just my opinion.

[Clark Kent]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

Fine, then I think you're putting too much weight on Obama era polarization.  WV may vote to the right of KS now, but it has a deeply Democratic tradition and huge Dem infrastructure there.  It'd be much more likely to flip to a moderate Democrat than a state like KS that has such a deep Republican heritage (it hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to DC in over 80 years).  Just my opinion.

Unfortunately, there's no real way to factor out Obama's influence.

[Asian Nazi]

What will the circumstances be the next time your state goes tossup?

The general's hand slips and the Seattle metropolitan area is hit by a stray nuke.  As for my reaction, I'd probably be pretty upset since my parents and a lot of my friends would be incinerated in the fireball or doomed to die a slow death due to radiation poisoning.

The state would probably still lean Democrat, but it'd be more like Pennyslvania-esque fool's gold than solid blue.

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

Fine, then I think you're putting too much weight on Obama era polarization.  WV may vote to the right of KS now, but it has a deeply Democratic tradition and huge Dem infrastructure there.  It'd be much more likely to flip to a moderate Democrat than a state like KS that has such a deep Republican heritage (it hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to DC in over 80 years).  Just my opinion.

Unfortunately, there's no real way to factor out Obama's influence.

Sure there is. Look at the 2006, 2004, and 2002 numbers for places such as Vermont/West Virginia.

[Figueira]

What will the circumstances be the next time your state goes tossup?

The general's hand slips and the Seattle metropolitan area is hit by a stray nuke.  As for my reaction, I'd probably be pretty upset since my parents and a lot of my friends would be incinerated in the fireball or doomed to die a slow death due to radiation poisoning.

The state would probably still lean Democrat, but it'd be more like Pennyslvania-esque fool's gold than solid blue.

Great reference, 10/10.

[Goldwater]

Eh, Greens doing well enough to take a lot of votes from the Democrats, maybe?

[bagelman]

Eh, Greens doing well enough to take a lot of votes from the Democrats, maybe?

Like this?

[DS0816]

If a Republican or a Democrat wins the U.S. Popular Vote by 15 percentage points, and we stick with an assumption of partisan voting index and figure that both California and Texas won't carry (because 15 points nationwide is presumably not enough) … is it really accurate to believe a winning Republican or Democrat, with a 15-point national margin that also amounts to an estimated 19,500,000 margin in raw votes, is not going to manage to carry California along with Texas [Republican victor] or Texas along with California [Democratic victor]?

[DS0816]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

Fine, then I think you're putting too much weight on Obama era polarization.  WV may vote to the right of KS now, but it has a deeply Democratic tradition and huge Dem infrastructure there.  It'd be much more likely to flip to a moderate Democrat than a state like KS that has such a deep Republican heritage (it hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to DC in over 80 years).  Just my opinion.

Offsetting that is the fact that Kansas has elected Democratic governors. The state is on a pattern of electing White House opposition party candidates to the governorship in midterm elections. And the state's voters have been doing it since 1990.

It also doesn't help Democrats that Mitt Romney carried every county in 2012 West Virginia; not the case in 2012 Kansas. In 2012 West Virginia, all counties from the 2008 Democratic column which flipped to 2012 Republican were carried by a minimum of 10 percentage points.

My thinking, at this point, is that West Virginia is going the way of Arkansas.

I also think that more 65+ voters, in both states and nationwide, are going to have to die off to get a better idea whether Kansas or West Virginia is more ripe for a winning Democrat, in future presidential elections, in which the result shows one of these two states (but not both) getting carried.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Hillary Clinton says the "N" word on a hot mic around October 15 and refuses to apologize for it. Then evidence comes out that she is a serial killer and had a long-standing affair with Rod Blagojevich and was in on Blagojevich's attempt to sell Obama's Senate seat. The Republicans also nominate a candidate who walks on water and gives a campaign address while walking on Lake Michigan or the Illinois River.

Or an earthquake levels the entire northeastern corner of the state.