Would Bernie be defeated in a landslide?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Conservative turnout would be through the roof if Sanders wins the nomination.

people don't (generally) turn out against candidates. conservative turnout might be high against sanders if the candidate is donald trump or cruz, but it won't be if the candidate is kasich or ¿yeb?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Conservative turnout would be through the roof if Sanders wins the nomination.

people don't (generally) turn out against candidates. conservative turnout might be high against sanders if the candidate is donald trump or cruz, but it won't be if the candidate is kasich or ¿yeb?

I don't think people here understand that being a self-proclaimed Socialist will convince almost everyone who is even remotely conservative to rush to the polls.

[Kingpoleon]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Conservative turnout would be through the roof if Sanders wins the nomination.

people don't (generally) turn out against candidates. conservative turnout might be high against sanders if the candidate is donald trump or cruz, but it won't be if the candidate is kasich or ¿yeb?

I don't think people here understand that being a self-proclaimed Socialist will convince almost everyone who is even remotely conservative to rush to the polls.

please. conservative demonisation of sanders literally can't get worse than conservative demonisation of obama, and you can ask president romney where all that high conservative turnout got him.

let's not forget that it was already an article of faith among most conservatives that obama is a socialist.

[Mister Mets]

We've yet to see socialists get elected in most states, so that would be a major hurdle. Oregon, Maryland, llinois and New Jersey (to name a few) haven't gone for a socialist yet, let alone potential tipping point states like Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

[Spamage]

We've yet to see socialists get elected in most states, so that would be a major hurdle. Oregon, Maryland, llinois and New Jersey (to name a few) haven't gone for a socialist yet, let alone potential tipping point states like Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

Sanders is a great fit for Oregon, perhaps even better than Obama.  I find it highly doubtful he'd lose here.

[Skye]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

This map is hilarious.

[Mr. Reactionary]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

This map is hilarious.

You don't think Sanders can win Indiana while simultaneously losing Washington?

[Intell]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

Whatever.

[DrScholl]

He'd do as well as Kerry did, give or take a state. I don't see him reaching 270 should he be the nominee.

[/]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

LOL

[Cory]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

Yeah, maybe in 1896.

[OSR stands with Israel]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

LOL

This map could have been Kennedy vs Ford 1976

[Erc]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised at something on this order of magnitude (though I will agree that Illinois is perhaps a stretch).

[Adam Griffin]

Once again, the out-of-touch Atlas Forum strikes again!

Most seem aware of the fact that there is political polarization in this country and that the left has a relative bias built into the EC, yet simultaneously project scenarios in which there is so much political fluidity that Republicans can barnstorm their way to a landslide victory (something they haven't done in nearly 30 years) in a country that continues to move further leftward on economics relative to the period in which the last landslide R victory happened - against somebody who is socially non-offensive and who advocates for economics that were not controversial in the slightest over most of the past century, no less.

(god that was a long sentence)

The Republicans couldn't even come close to beating an unpopular black man with a milquetoast record in an economy with >7% unemployment by running Middle America/independents' 20th century wet dream of a white bread presidential candidate.

The whole "self-avowed socialist" tripe doesn't matter, either, as the Republicans have completely exhausted the extent of the effect such marketing against a candidate like Sanders would have today because they have been identifying (very loudly, might I add) Democrats and the Democratic nominee for President as socialist for the better part of a decade. The boy who cried wolf, etc etc - if you want an Atlas-relevant example of how this won't matter one bit, then click here.

New Hampshire won't abandon Sanders; they're quite used to his approach from a variety of relevant candidates and elected officials. I think some may be under-estimating just how much latent racism exists in that part of the country. For every Democratic leaner he'll lose for 'SOCIALISM!', he'll gain one for being a white messenger of leftist policies. A similar sentiment applies to IA, and to the Upper Midwest in general, where "socialism" historically has had a stronger presence and where the narrative of it being bad - even with the cultural and political changes present - is going to stick even less so than nationally. I tend to think that he'll even do remarkably well in Ohio, but a Republican would likely pull off a victory there. PA isn't in danger of flipping in a presidential year any time soon, period.

He'd lose VA & FL for obvious reasons, and would probably lose CO (though I think it'd be comparably as close as OH, if not more so). He'd carry CO against someone like Trump for sure (and win the election based on that alone), and maybe even VA in the same scenario.

tl;dr: Sanders has a very narrow margin between his floor and his ceiling; 265 is his floor, 274 would be his likely average against a weak candidate and/or in a favorable climate, and an average of about 305 is his (truly max) ceiling.

Republican - 273 EVs - 49.9%
Sanders - 265 EVs - 48.3%

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

LOL

He'll  definitely  win Indiana  and lose WA-OR against CRUZ. WHATT??

[Bull Moose Base]

Much easier for him to beat the Republican nominee than to beat Hillary (whose views mostly match those of voters) for the nomination. People thought if nominated, Obama couldn't win.

[emailking]

Sanders would obviously lose, and anyone who says otherwise is a hack, but he would not lose in a landslide. People who think that Sanders would lose in a landslide are also hacks.

I think he could win, and that he could lose in a landslide. What does that make me?

[DS0816]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

This map is hilarious.

Part of what is hilarious is the fact that Kingpoleon fails to recognize that every presidential candidate who carried the four instrumental states of the Rust Belt—Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—won those elections. (This includes a 2008 Barack Obama.)

For an eight-point Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, which is a national shift of around 12 percentage points, that's a sh**tty result for the Cruz/Ernst ticket.

And let us not forget that Indiana was a 2012 Republican pickup for the party's losing nominee, Mitt Romney. A 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency would not boast an Electoral College map in which any 2012 Republican-carried state flips the 2016 Democratic column.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

292: Sen. Ted Cruz(R-TX)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 53.1%
246: Sen. Bernie Sanders(D-VT)/Rep. Andre Carson(D-IN) - 45.2%
000: Other - 1.6%

That's Sanders' ceiling.

This map is hilarious.

Part of what is hilarious is the fact that Kingpoleon fails to recognize that every presidential candidate who carried the four instrumental states of the Rust Belt—Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—won those elections. (This includes a 2008 Barack Obama.)

For an eight-point Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, which is a national shift of around 12 percentage points, that's a sh**tty result for the Cruz/Ernst ticket.

And let us not forget that Indiana was a 2012 Republican pickup for the party's losing nominee, Mitt Romney. A 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency would not boast an Electoral College map in which any 2012 Republican-carried state flips the 2016 Democratic column.

He's just trying to create aesthetic maps. OR+WA without CA looks pretty ugly though.

[ObamaThirdTerm]

Kingpoleon that map is terrible!

[Slander and/or Libel]

please. conservative demonisation of sanders literally can't get worse than conservative demonisation of obama, and you can ask president romney where all that high conservative turnout got him.

let's not forget that it was already an article of faith among most conservatives that obama is a socialist.

This is the point that nobody seems to understand. Conservatives have inoculated Sanders against the accusation that he's a socialist. So does the fact that he embraces the term. They call him a socialist, he says, "OK, fine, let's talk about policies," rather than spluttering about arguing over what epithet he should be called.

[Cryptic]

The country is too polarized compared to thirty years ago for anyone to be defeated in a landslide. Even if he did lose, Sanders would get at least around 240 EVs.

[DS0816]

please. conservative demonisation of sanders literally can't get worse than conservative demonisation of obama, and you can ask president romney where all that high conservative turnout got him.

let's not forget that it was already an article of faith among most conservatives that obama is a socialist.

This is the point that nobody seems to understand. Conservatives have inoculated Sanders against the accusation that he's a socialist. So does the fact that he embraces the term. They call him a socialist, he says, "OK, fine, let's talk about policies," rather than spluttering about arguing over what epithet he should be called.

For a lot of people, both Republicans and Democrats, they act like it's 1975 rather than 2015.

They're stuck way in the past.

[SWE]

Conservative turnout would be through the roof if Sanders wins the nomination.

people don't (generally) turn out against candidates. conservative turnout might be high against sanders if the candidate is donald trump or cruz, but it won't be if the candidate is kasich or ¿yeb?

I don't think people here understand that being a self-proclaimed Socialist will convince almost everyone who is even remotely conservative to rush to the polls.

Because conservatives are the ones having an issue with getting their base to turn out?