FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: everyone (except Florida) loves Big Ben

[MT Treasurer]

B-b-b-b-but wait! According to election analysts on Atlas and Larry Sabato (who never gets it wrong!!!1!), PA will vote at least 1000000 points to the left of turbo-elastic New Hampshire because muh inelasticity, muh demographics, muh presidential year and muh party identification.

Seriously though, I doubt the FL and PA numbers are right. Clinton was trailing Rubio in FL by 12 points in the last QU poll conducted 2 months ago. There's no reason to believe that her numbers have gotten so much better since then. Also, PA isn't going to be more Republican than FL. Just no. However, it will definitely be competitive IMO. (PPP will poll PA this weekend, so we're going to get a clearer picture of what's going on in the state).

[MT Treasurer]

Lol. Hate to sound like HillOfANight here, but In the Florida poll, Bush is winning the Hispanic sample 44-39, yet only leads Clinton by 1. Like I said before, their PA and FL numbers are junk.

I assume you know that Pubs do much better with Hispanics in Florida than elsewhere, right? My impression is that Pubs do best with Hispanics in Florida (Cubans), second best in Texas (the culture, and they tend to come from the more conservative parts of Mexico, and many have been US citizens for two, three or more generations now), and third best in Arizona (unusually high percentage of Evangelical Protestant Hispanics there).

I know, but I was talking about this poll. If Bush is winning the Hispanic sample by 5 points (which is 26 points better than what Romney did in 2012!) and Whites by 19 points (which -surpisingly- is 5 points worse than how Romney did in 2012), he should be ahead by 3 points (45.3%-42.2%), not 1. I think it's fair to assume that Bush/Rubio/Carson are currently ahead by 4 or 5 in FL. Clinton isn't doing that much better than Obama among Whites in FL (especially in comparison to PA), which was "confirmed" by other polls as well (including PPP).