So we know it'll be Edwards and Vitter in the runoff. That's what needs to be tested. The undecideds need to be tested for who they voted for in 2012, 2014 and who they're "leaning" towards, etc. for us to get an accurate picture here.
From the PPP poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/LouisianaPollSeptember2015.pdfEdwards/Vitter: (50/38 Edwards overall)
Vitter gets:
- 58% of the Romney vote, 11% of the Obama vote, 22% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 59% of the Republican vote, 18% of the Democratic vote, 40% of the Independent Vote
Edwards gets:
- 32% of the Romney vote, 83% of the Obama vote, 37% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 28% of the Republican vote, 74% of the Democratic Vote, 43% of the Independent vote
Undecided gets:
- 10% of the Romney vote, 6% of the Obama vote, 41% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote
- 14% of the Republican vote, 8% of the Democratic vote, 17% of the Independent Vote
Edwards/Angelle: (40/40 tie overall)
Angelle gets:
- 64% of the Romney vote, 8% of the Obama vote, 24% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 64% of the Republican vote, 19% of the Democratic Vote, 36% of the Independent Vote
Edwards gets:
- 20% of the Romney vote, 75% of the Obama vote, 21% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 18% of the Republican vote, 62% of the Democratic Vote, 36% of the Independent Vote
Undecided gets:
- 16% of the Romney vote, 17% of the Obama vote, 55% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote
- 18% of the Republican vote, 19% of the Democratic Vote, 29% of the Independent Vote
Edwards/Dardenne: (42/40 Dardenne overall)
Dardenne gets:
- 61% of the Romney vote, 16% of the Obama vote, 23% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 62% of the Republican vote, 23% of the Democratic vote, 41% of the Independent Vote
Edwards gets:
- 24% of the Romney vote, 72% of the Obama vote, 17% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 19% of the Republican vote, 62% of the Democratic vote, 35% of the Independent Vote
Undecided gets:
- 14% of the Romney vote, 12% of the Obama vote, 60% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 19% of the Republican vote, 15% of the Democratic vote, and 24% of the Independent Vote
So, the undecideds lean republican in 2 out of the 3 runoffs (but not by a lot), and are equally divided in the Angelle scenario.
