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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Another 2040 Election Scenario
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Author Topic: Another 2040 Election Scenario  (Read 1812 times)
Free Bird
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« on: October 02, 2015, 08:54:15 pm »
« edited: October 03, 2015, 12:16:24 am by Free Bird »

Have another scenario. Some background information:

Past Presidents
John Kasich: 2017-2025
Marco Rubio: 2025-2033
Joe Kennedy III: 2033-Present

Present Time Tidbits
. The popularity of Presidents Kasich and Rubio have made moderates even more of a toss up that slightly Tilt R, and Minorities, while still Democratic, are more likely to give the GOP nominee a look. It isn't shocking to see the GOP get 33% of the aggregate minority vote if they win.

. President Kasich finally passed a balanced budget amendment. The 28th Amendment has made way for economic growth, and the debt has finally begun to be paid off.

. Frustrated by three straight upset wins by the GOP in the Presidential field, and Governor Gillespie surpassing the popularity of Mark Warner, the Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, King George, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Warren county Democratic parties, as well as the city councils of the encompassing Independent cities, frustrated at their power slipping despite a still-booming population, bring forth a referendum to secede. It passes with overwhelming support, particularly with the consent of southern Virginia. These counties and cities form Columbia, which becomes the 51st State on January 1st, 2026.

. Under President Kennedy, his popularity with perspective voters due to his name and Republican fatigue leads Democrats to retake Congress completely in 2034. Under this Congress, Puerto Rico quickly becomes the 52nd state in 2036. Despite Hispanics becoming slightly more open to Republicans, it is still a Democratic state.

. WolfPac finally gets its amendment, despite heavy Republican opposition.

. Other current real world trends continue. Certain Southern States like Georgia and Mississippi continue to slowly revert back to their old Democratic ways, with the former being a new swinger. Pennsylvania, Midwest sans partisan Illinois, as well as Maine and New Hampshire, have reverted back to the GOP with its embrace of Libertarianism and growing Blue Collar support. Meanwhile, the west, with the obvious exception of Utah, is the new swing Region. Hispanics trend R sligntly yes, but there are so many now in the region with diverse beliefs, that it doesn't matter.

. Congress is a toss up; basically the same situation as in early 2014, as President Kennedy has declined in popularity to the high 40s versus 60 a year ago due to his embrace of Ted progressivism in an increasingly Libertarian nation.

The Nominees

The Democrat

. 45 years old

. Masters from Seton Hall and Harvard, very much from the lawyer class

. Senator from New York in the middle of his 2nd term. Quickly rising in the ranks; poised to become Judiciary chairman one day

. Pursued aggressive antitrust legislation, particularly against Apple and The College Board, which President Kennedy broke up at his urging. Other monopolies are also in his sight.

. Besides that and his advocacy for Church taxation, raising corporate taxes, and his support for a French style healthcare system (Kennedy didn't have big enough majorities), is a fiscal Blue Dog, supporting maintaining the BBA and cutting spending and promising to cut income taxes further. Nominated due to Progressivism receiving a major backlash in the now open to everyone Democratic primaries.

. Supports maintaining the Federal Reserve.

. Voted against, but would sign a ban on assault weapons.

. Advocates for a more open border policy

. Feels that globalization and all Current federal departments must be maintained in their current form for the sake of stability

. Biggest promise of campaign is to reign in on government corruption from the inside out and streamline government to be useful to the people, Leslie Knope style.

. Feels the NSA must be reformed, but its programs not outright stopped.

. President he admires the most is Barack Obama

. Supports a Portugal style drug plan, as does his opponent, who reigned in such a plan in New Hampshire to great success

. Running mate is 4 term Florida Senator Patrick Murphy, presumably to ring back in Hispanics. It's working. Florida and the southwest are brutally contested, with Nevada and New Mexico having him up in the mid-teens. The later is also attributed to their shared drug plan ontop of Hispanic voting trends

The Republican

. 51 years old

. No college; began as a radio talk show host before running a grassroots campaign for State Rep

. Former 4 term State Representative, 5 term State Senator, and now outgoing 4 term New Hampshire Governor

. Is considered the culmination of the Free State Project, and the new generation Libertarian darling, after Ron Paul and Rand Paul, sharing the honor with Justin Amash, who was crucial to turning the Midwest to the GOP with his popular governorship.

. Makes a FairTax amendment the centerpiece of his campaign, calling the current system, particularly the income tax, an abominable cancer. Even if you eliminate the income tax, he argues, the bureaucracy and corruption of Government and the IRS will still get you, at one point or another. Only supports HEAVY tariffs for companies that outsource.

. Has visited big cities and ghettos to push this plan, saying it will empower their areas to new business and jobs, believing that his lack of a college degree and starting from the bottom can be replicated with anyone. Overall encourages empowerment and rising up in these visits

. Also likes breaking up monopolies to "unclog the pipes of real capitalism."

. Has stated that his litmus test for legislation will be twofold. Is it Constitutional, and does it protect or free up a liberty? If not, veto.

. Extends liberties to animals and the environment, though.

. As such, believes the NSA should be shut down, all gun control measures vetoed and eliminated, most foreign bases closed, and the US's troop presence in other countries rescinded

. Will also cut spending in the style of a new, updated Plan to Restore America. This includes reissuing Executive Order 11110, including gold. He acknowledges the initial pain, but promises the death of the Fed and eventual restoration of the dollar will be worth it.

. Constitutional devotion also leads him to believe that deregulating will allow problems like healthcare and energy to be solved with the free market.

. Has a mutual agreement with his opponent not to demonize, and instead make it about differences in vision and policy.

. Idolizes Founders and feels government's job is to get out of the way and secure personal freedoms, in order to allow the people to control and naturally prosper on their own, citing Pre-Taft Non-Hawk America and before as an example.

. They both are irreligious and refuse to pander, making Republican Iowa and West Virginia a toss up for the first time in 20 and 40 years, and they keep both their messages consistent everywhere.

. Believes in an updated Simpson Mazzoli, ontop of a streamlined legal system. This has secured Texas and the Yellowstone Trio has him in the 70s, but not the rest of the west.

. Selects outgoing Fellow Governor Justin Amash as his running mate

Who wins? Discuss, maps preferred.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2015, 11:31:47 pm »


A narrow GOP victory.

Missisippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, and Maine are the five closest states.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2015, 12:11:54 am »


A narrow GOP victory.

Missisippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, and Maine are the five closest states.

Fascinating, but a New Hampshire governor doesn't win his own state and Maine, which have both gone back to the GOP, and when I state he locked up Texas? Kansas and Oklahoma? Other than that and Illinois and Washington, I could buy it. But how does a Republican lose Utah?

Also, is there anyway to add new States (Puerto Rico and Columbia) to maps?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2015, 01:39:18 am »

To answer your questions, I didn't really think too much about N. H. and Maine. In Utah, Texas, and Arizona, the Hispanic populations have greatly increased. Since President Kasich's record-breaking 48% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, the Hispanic population has always been Likely Dem. While the white vote is less competitive, splitting 58-40 to the Hispanic 55-44 in 2040, the Democratic part of it is bolstered by growing Hispanic populations.

I picture 2036 looking like this:


If you wouldn't mind, I suggest you let me divide the political America here into a few different sections.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2015, 02:01:59 am »

To answer your questions, I didn't really think too much about N. H. and Maine. In Utah, Texas, and Arizona, the Hispanic populations have greatly increased. Since President Kasich's record-breaking 48% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, the Hispanic population has always been Likely Dem. While the white vote is less competitive, splitting 58-40 to the Hispanic 55-44 in 2040, the Democratic part of it is bolstered by growing Hispanic populations.

I picture 2036 looking like this:


If you wouldn't mind, I suggest you let me divide the political America here into a few different sections.

I get ya. Arizona could and probably will fall that way. Even Texas I said had to have actual effort put in it, but the GOP nominee IMO locked it up. But that's just my interpretation, free to do whatever. But Utah? That is THE Republican fortress, and any Hispanic influence would have diminished with the still overwhelming and growing Mormon population and the Governor's easy/liberal stance on immigration, which is also why he got Texas in my interpretation and probably Arizona.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2015, 07:29:30 am »

How do the candidates stand on abortion?
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2015, 01:16:43 pm »


At this point, abortion is a non issue like gay marriage. PP funding has been moved to the states with President Kasich, but other than that, it's become a non issue with the death of the Evangelical GOP
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2015, 05:10:39 pm »


309: Gov. Joseph Brown(R-NH)/Gov. Justin Amash(d-MI)
219: Sen. James Duffy(D-NY)/Sen. Patrick Murphy(D-FL)
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