Wisconsin 2016

[Bismarck]

Many people here think that the midwest is trending R. Polls show Wisconsin massively trending D. What do you guys think will actually happen?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No change (stays D+2), but:

Ohio: R+1 --> R+2
Pennsylvania: D+1 --> EVEN
Michigan: D+4--> D+2
Iowa: D+1 --> R+1
Minnesota: D+2 --> D+ 1
Illinois: D+8 --> D+4
Indiana: R+5 --> R+6

Other regions obviously go Democratic versus the nation as a whole, but it may be largely in big safe states like New York, California, Washington, and Massachusetts (in addition to New Hampshire and Virginia).

[ElectionsGuy]

I think the backlash against Walker is affecting the whole plate of races. This Democratic trend thing is worth keeping an eye on but likely to be temporary. I don't expect a major change.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

there might well be reverse coattails from feingold wrecking ron johnson

[Gass3268]

I think the backlash against Walker is affecting the whole plate of races. This Democratic trend thing is worth keeping an eye on but likely to be temporary. I don't expect a major change.

Its rather unfortunate (or fortunate, depending on your political viewpoint) that the competitive State Senate Districts (17-Southwest, 19-Appleton, and possibly 23-Chippewa Falls) are always during the midterm elections. Btw, I really hate the state legislature maps.

[sg0508]

As usual, it will on the GOP's radar, they will lose there somewhere between 5-10 points.