LA: JMC: Edwards ahead 9 in primary
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  LA: JMC: Edwards ahead 9 in primary
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Author Topic: LA: JMC: Edwards ahead 9 in primary  (Read 1294 times)
Miles
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« on: October 05, 2015, 02:14:26 PM »

Article.

Edwards 28%
Vitter 19%
Angelle 8%
Dardenne 7%
Other candidate 5%
Undecided 33%
 
This guy has been decent in the past but between not polling the runoff and not pushing undecideds, this seems pretty useless.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2015, 04:42:37 PM »

So we know it'll be Edwards and Vitter in the runoff. That's what needs to be tested. The undecideds need to be tested for who they voted for in 2012, 2014 and who they're "leaning" towards, etc. for us to get an accurate picture here.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2015, 11:10:55 PM »

Vitter needs to hold out until the jungle primary so that he can hand Democrats the keys to the big house is Baton Rouge.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2015, 11:14:39 PM »

33% of undecideds is too much to make any conclusions. Vitter is, undoubtely, toxic, but Obama - too. The question is - who is more toxic for average Louisiana voter, as Vitter will surely make everything possible to "prove" that Edwards is a "second incarnation of Obama"...
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2015, 12:43:22 AM »

So we know it'll be Edwards and Vitter in the runoff. That's what needs to be tested. The undecideds need to be tested for who they voted for in 2012, 2014 and who they're "leaning" towards, etc. for us to get an accurate picture here.

From the PPP poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/LouisianaPollSeptember2015.pdf

Edwards/Vitter: (50/38 Edwards overall)

Vitter gets:
- 58% of the Romney vote, 11% of the Obama vote, 22% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 59% of the Republican vote, 18% of the Democratic vote, 40% of the Independent Vote

Edwards gets:
- 32% of the Romney vote, 83% of the Obama vote, 37% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 28% of the Republican vote, 74% of the Democratic Vote, 43% of the Independent vote

Undecided gets:
- 10% of the Romney vote, 6% of the Obama vote, 41% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote
- 14% of the Republican vote, 8% of the Democratic vote, 17% of the Independent Vote

Edwards/Angelle: (40/40 tie overall)

Angelle gets:
- 64% of the Romney vote, 8% of the Obama vote, 24% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 64% of the Republican vote, 19% of the Democratic Vote, 36% of the Independent Vote

Edwards gets:
- 20% of the Romney vote, 75% of the Obama vote, 21% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 18% of the Republican vote, 62% of the Democratic Vote, 36% of the Independent Vote

Undecided gets:
- 16% of the Romney vote, 17% of the Obama vote, 55% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote
- 18% of the Republican vote, 19% of the Democratic Vote, 29% of the Independent Vote

Edwards/Dardenne: (42/40 Dardenne overall)

Dardenne gets:
- 61% of the Romney vote, 16% of the Obama vote, 23% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 62% of the Republican vote, 23% of the Democratic vote, 41% of the Independent Vote

Edwards gets:
- 24% of the Romney vote, 72% of the Obama vote, 17% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 19% of the Republican vote, 62% of the Democratic vote, 35% of the Independent Vote

Undecided gets:
- 14% of the Romney vote, 12% of the Obama vote, 60% of the Someone else/Don't Remember vote.
- 19% of the Republican vote, 15% of the Democratic vote, and 24% of the Independent Vote

So, the undecideds lean republican in 2 out of the 3 runoffs (but not by a lot), and are equally divided in the Angelle scenario.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2015, 12:54:51 AM »

How someone would vote for Obama and turn around and vote for Vitter is just beyond me.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2015, 03:11:14 AM »

How someone would vote for Obama and turn around and vote for Vitter is just beyond me.

Black conservative, for example (and yes - they exist. And Louisiana's rural Blacks are, generally, less liberal, then their urban or northern counterparts)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2015, 12:06:27 PM »

Vitter isnt Cassidy and Blks were disenchanted due to the bad economy in 2014;  Edwards will energize blk support.
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