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  Talk Elections
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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  SUSA: Conway still up by 5!!!
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Author Topic: SUSA: Conway still up by 5!!!  (Read 4577 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« on: September 30, 2015, 01:06:54 pm »

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/09/30/4064104_bluegerass-poll-jack-conway-maintains.html

Can the pundits put a stop to this "Lean R" garbage now?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2015, 01:28:29 pm »

I'm beginning to come around to Conway being ahead - reading more about this race has made me realize nominating a woman beater or someone who is just chronically unlikable would've actually been a better choice for the GOP than nominating Matt Bevin. He's really running a disastrous campaign - flip flopping, whining to the DNC, putting out a tiny ad buy for no reason.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2015, 01:34:39 pm »
« Edited: September 30, 2015, 01:51:50 pm by RogueBeaver »

Someone needs to dump $20M yesterday. After all the heat and noise, both are at even favs & honesty, no topline change since July. As the Herald-Leader's Sam Youngman and Courier Journal's Joe Gerth noted recently, it's really a "who's running the less awfully crappy campaign" contest.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2015, 01:39:37 pm »

^ Rogue, I love how you throw around random author's like they're household names.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2015, 02:01:10 pm »

They're calling La too LR since its an offyear election. Same with MO gov and OH sen. Dems are tied or leading. Sabato needs to reevaluate  his methology, because Dems are winning.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2015, 02:05:27 pm »

15% undecided seems a little high at this point. In any case, after 2014, SUSA is junk until proven otherwise in KY. But even if this poll is accurate, the race remains a Toss-Up. It is a bad sign for Conway that he hasn't even crossed 45% yet.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2015, 02:25:35 pm »

I still have the feeling Bevin will win
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2015, 02:59:27 pm »

Conway 42
Bevin 37
Curtis 7
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2015, 03:24:02 pm »

There is a reason the RGA pulled ads here.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2015, 03:36:04 pm »

Basically one month until the election and Sabato is somehow still sure the race leans R. WTF
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2015, 03:48:35 pm »

Basically, I've ignored his ratings. As long as the state is in play, I've considered it a tossup. Same with OH senate, La gov and MO gov race.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2015, 04:41:26 pm »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216819.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192495.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124809.0

Every time I see "KY" and "SUSA" together, I always get worried.
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Skye
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2015, 05:04:26 pm »

There's still a month left. Plenty of time for the race to shift or for the undecideds to show their true colors (atlas blue?).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2015, 05:12:22 pm »

There's still a month left. Plenty of time for the race to shift or for the undecideds to show their true colors (atlas blue?).

We don't even know where the race stands because there has been just one poll conducted by a non-joke pollster (PPP showed Bevin up 2). Isn't it funny how the red avatars insist that the MI polls showing the GOP ahead are trash but consider SUSA to be a reliable pollster?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2015, 05:27:50 pm »

I still am surprised that, after the disasterous race he ran against Rand Paul, Kentucky Democrats thought, yea, this is our guy in Jack Conway. He may beat Bevin, but he's an almost certain loss for re-election.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2015, 05:32:00 pm »

I still am surprised that, after the disasterous race he ran against Rand Paul, Kentucky Democrats thought, yea, this is our guy in Jack Conway. He may beat Bevin, but he's an almost certain loss for re-election.

Will the GOP even still exist in 2019?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2015, 05:40:53 pm »

I still am surprised that, after the disasterous race he ran against Rand Paul, Kentucky Democrats thought, yea, this is our guy in Jack Conway. He may beat Bevin, but he's an almost certain loss for re-election.

Will the GOP even still exist in 2019?

Quit trolling. Hillary's not winning in your state.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2015, 05:44:55 pm »

I still am surprised that, after the disasterous race he ran against Rand Paul, Kentucky Democrats thought, yea, this is our guy in Jack Conway. He may beat Bevin, but he's an almost certain loss for re-election.

Will the GOP even still exist in 2019?

Quit trolling. Hillary's not winning in your state.

2019 is not a presidential year.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2015, 06:27:49 pm »

Bevin is a poor candidate and Kentucky has only elected one Republican governor in 40 years. At the state level, Democrats are still able to win the constitutional offices.

The RGA pulled ads for Bevin, which tells you just about all you need to know about the race.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2015, 05:49:25 pm »

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/10/01/kim-davis-should-do-her-job-most-poll-say/73000632/

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I think this bodes well for his tenure as Attorney General.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2015, 07:12:06 pm »

I still think Bevin will win. Conway is only at 42%. He needs to be well above that to secure a win in Kentucky. Republicans break late and heavily for their candidate. If we learned anything from 2014, I think that is it. Plus its SUSA, which has a terrible track record in Kentucky.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2015, 12:47:50 pm »

I doubt Bevin will win, most KY voters dony agree about the Davis decision not to obey SSM ruling.

Voters are om the Dems, not GOP side, here.
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Miles
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2015, 08:14:56 pm »

The downballot results:

SOS:
Grimes (D) - 46%
Knipper (R) - 38%

AG
Beshear (D) - 38%
Westerfield (R) - 38%

Auditor
Edelen (D)- 35%
Harmon (R)- 33%

Treasurer
Ball (R) - 35%
Nelson (D) - 33%

Ag. Commissioner
Quarles (R) - 34%
Spann (D) - 31%
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2015, 08:24:48 pm »

The downballot results:

SOS:
Grimes (D) - 46%
Knipper (R) - 38%

AG
Beshear (D) - 38%
Westerfield (R) - 38%

Auditor
Edelen (D)- 35%
Harmon (R)- 33%

Treasurer
Ball (R) - 35%
Nelson (D) - 33%

Ag. Commissioner
Quarles (R) - 34%
Spann (D) - 31%


Like Westerfield or Harmon have any chance at all. The others actually sound pretty close to what I'd expect.

Of course, Grimes is way ahead, which isn't surprising at all.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2015, 09:23:52 pm »

The downballot results:

SOS:
Grimes (D) - 46%
Knipper (R) - 38%

AG
Beshear (D) - 38%
Westerfield (R) - 38%

Auditor
Edelen (D)- 35%
Harmon (R)- 33%

Treasurer
Ball (R) - 35%
Nelson (D) - 33%

Ag. Commissioner
Quarles (R) - 34%
Spann (D) - 31%


Like Westerfield or Harmon have any chance at all. The others actually sound pretty close to what I'd expect.

Of course, Grimes is way ahead, which isn't surprising at all.

Why is Grimes being way ahead expected? McConnell  clobbered her by the 2nd widest margin of his career. Only in 2002 when Democrats didn't seriously contest the race did McConnell win by more than he did in 2014.
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