LA-Gov (PPP): Vitter set to make runoff, but trails Edwards in general
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 16, 2021, 11:16:14 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2021 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  LA-Gov (PPP): Vitter set to make runoff, but trails Edwards in general
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: LA-Gov (PPP): Vitter set to make runoff, but trails Edwards in general  (Read 5122 times)
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,788
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 24, 2015, 10:48:50 AM »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/vitter-badly-damaged-highly-vulnerable-in-runoff-election.html

Primary:

Edwards 28%
Vitter 27%
Angelle 15%
Dardenne 14%

General:

Edwards 40%
Dardenne 42%

Edwards 40%
Angelle 40%

Edwards 50%
Vitter 38%


Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,340
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2015, 11:07:27 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2015, 11:18:44 AM by Miles »

Pretty awesome, if true. If worth noting, though, that this was done for an anti-Vitter PAC.

Almost 30% of Republicans voting for Edwards over Vitter is actually believable, as it describes many Dardenne supporters.

Vitter's prospects might not be as bad as this, but there are certainly signs he's taking things for granted (skipping debates, and generally not being as visible as the others).
Logged
Talleyrand
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2015, 11:07:57 AM »

PPP is set to get another mark on their increasingly disastrous record in the past few years. Pathetic!
Logged
Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,073
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2015, 11:55:49 AM »

I don't trust PPP's for-profit polls, but this is still terrible for Vitter.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,494
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2015, 12:48:43 PM »

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.
Logged
mds32
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,089
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2015, 01:17:15 PM »

That is just sad. I truly thought the Democrats were booted out after Landrieu.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,445
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2015, 01:43:53 PM »

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.
Basically this
Logged
pikachu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,764
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2015, 01:52:55 PM »

Could someone explain to me why Vitter is doing so badly? I'm not well-versed in Louisiana politics.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,852
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2015, 03:07:41 PM »

So what a minute, all the Republicans get a combined 56% to Edward's 28% in the primary, but Vitter and the others are tied or losing in the runoff?? I'm calling complete bullsh**t.

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.

What Huh
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,455
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2015, 05:22:26 PM »

Could someone explain to me why Vitter is doing so badly? I'm not well-versed in Louisiana politics.

Just google either diaper and Vitter or Diaper Dave.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,372
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2015, 05:35:14 PM »

Whaaaaat

But anyway yeah, the source is pretty shady...
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,455
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2015, 06:04:18 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2015, 06:09:08 PM by Adam T »

Whaaaaat

But anyway yeah, the source is pretty shady...

Prior to the 2014 election, PPP was probably the most highly regarded pollster, despite being a Democratic Party aligned firm. I don't think one bad election (which other pollsters also suffered, though not as badly as PPP) automatically makes them suspect, especially as there is no evidence that PPP deliberately manipulated their polls in 2014.

I'm not sure these numbers are completely accurate either, but I wrote here months ago that just because Diaper Dave was able to escape completely unscathed in his 2010 U.S Senate race by saying "God and my wife have forgiven me" and then refusing to answer any more questions on his dealings with prostitutes did not mean he would be able to this time around.

2010 was a wave Republican year and it's one thing for people to be willing to vote for a U.S Senator like David Vitter they'll see on television or read about maybe once a week at most, it's quite another to vote for a person like David Vitter as governor when they'll see him on television virtually every day.  Also, my belief, not that I have any evidence to back it up, but just from what I observe, is that many voters are willing to have a lower standard of behavior for a legislator as opposed to an executive.
Logged
Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,073
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2015, 06:06:46 PM »

So what a minute, all the Republicans get a combined 56% to Edward's 28% in the primary, but Vitter and the others are tied or losing in the runoff?? I'm calling complete bullsh**t.

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.

What Huh

No clue why they think LA is trending D, but the 56 to 28 thing means that just because a voter is supporting a republican in the jungle doesn't mean they will vote for any republican in the runoff. Gov. Races are less partisan than Senate Races, and in fact, I wouldn't be attached to one party for the jungle and runoff if I lived in the state. My endorsement is for Dardenne, and I'd be ok with Angelle, but if the runoff is Vitter vs. Edwards, I'll endorse Edwards.

Also, regarding PPP, they were actually the most accurate 2014 pollster if you look at only gubernatorial races. And this happens to be a gubernatorial race. So, while this poll may be inaccurate, stop treating PPP like it's Magellan (R) or something.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,340
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2015, 06:13:49 PM »

^ It trended Democratic in 2012. A lot of it had to do with Katrina evacuees voting again who weren't settled back in for the 2008 election, though.
Logged
Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 56,016
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2015, 07:50:51 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2015, 07:54:08 PM by OC »

Vitter has a small edge, Edwards is exceedingly a good candidate. Blacks unlike the Senate race in 2014, maybe the balance of power. Turnout was low due to the inevitable GOP takeover. Along with MD, TX, MS & La itself have a substantial amount of blacks in the state. Tossup for me.
Logged
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2015, 08:01:45 PM »

Vitter is gonna wish Edwards was wearing a diaper when Edwards takes a dump on him this election.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,852
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2015, 09:08:42 PM »

^ It trended Democratic in 2012. A lot of it had to do with Katrina evacuees voting again who weren't settled back in for the 2008 election, though.

Pretty much all the McCain people voted Romney or didn't vote, and there was a higher black turnout to make it slight swing D. When you look at Louisiana in the long term, it strongly suggests Republicans will keep winning, and the state has strongly trended Republican in the past decade, shedding all its Democratic control in 2010/2011 and finally their last Democratic Senator in 2014.

I would think those white Catholics are a bit more flexible than their protestant counterparts, but Edwards would need 30% of the white vote to win. How much did Landrieu win? About 20%? I don't have any reason to believe he would do better.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,852
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2015, 09:18:44 PM »

So what a minute, all the Republicans get a combined 56% to Edward's 28% in the primary, but Vitter and the others are tied or losing in the runoff?? I'm calling complete bullsh**t.

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.

What Huh

No clue why they think LA is trending D, but the 56 to 28 thing means that just because a voter is supporting a republican in the jungle doesn't mean they will vote for any republican in the runoff. Gov. Races are less partisan than Senate Races, and in fact, I wouldn't be attached to one party for the jungle and runoff if I lived in the state. My endorsement is for Dardenne, and I'd be ok with Angelle, but if the runoff is Vitter vs. Edwards, I'll endorse Edwards.

Also, regarding PPP, they were actually the most accurate 2014 pollster if you look at only gubernatorial races. And this happens to be a gubernatorial race. So, while this poll may be inaccurate, stop treating PPP like it's Magellan (R) or something.

Not every Republican jungle voter is going to vote Republican, but most of them will. If they don't, I will be shocked and apologize for being wrong, but I don't see how it would happen. PPP is a good pollster, but again, this happens to be a poll for Democrats anyway. I'm not going to just trust PPP like  its the God of polling or some sh**t.They can be wrong too. But lets look at some numbers:

All the results have between 12-20% undecided. Given the OP, how does, for example, Dardenne only get 42% out of the 56% total Republican jungle support. 14% of the Angelle/Vitter vote goes to Edwards? Vitter only gets 38% of 56%? So 18% of Angelle/Dardenne (out of 29%!) goes to Edwards AND some undecideds push Edward's way as well?

I don't find that realistic. At all. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I'd like to see more polls in the month there is left.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,455
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2015, 05:51:16 AM »

So what a minute, all the Republicans get a combined 56% to Edward's 28% in the primary, but Vitter and the others are tied or losing in the runoff?? I'm calling complete bullsh**t.

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.

What Huh

No clue why they think LA is trending D, but the 56 to 28 thing means that just because a voter is supporting a republican in the jungle doesn't mean they will vote for any republican in the runoff. Gov. Races are less partisan than Senate Races, and in fact, I wouldn't be attached to one party for the jungle and runoff if I lived in the state. My endorsement is for Dardenne, and I'd be ok with Angelle, but if the runoff is Vitter vs. Edwards, I'll endorse Edwards.

Also, regarding PPP, they were actually the most accurate 2014 pollster if you look at only gubernatorial races. And this happens to be a gubernatorial race. So, while this poll may be inaccurate, stop treating PPP like it's Magellan (R) or something.

Not every Republican jungle voter is going to vote Republican, but most of them will. If they don't, I will be shocked and apologize for being wrong, but I don't see how it would happen. PPP is a good pollster, but again, this happens to be a poll for Democrats anyway. I'm not going to just trust PPP like  its the God of polling or some sh**t.They can be wrong too. But lets look at some numbers:

All the results have between 12-20% undecided. Given the OP, how does, for example, Dardenne only get 42% out of the 56% total Republican jungle support. 14% of the Angelle/Vitter vote goes to Edwards? Vitter only gets 38% of 56%? So 18% of Angelle/Dardenne (out of 29%!) goes to Edwards AND some undecideds push Edward's way as well?

I don't find that realistic. At all. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I'd like to see more polls in the month there is left.

I agree with that.  The assumption is that it's Dardenne voters who are moving to Bel Edwards.  So, where does Bel Edwards gain his support from in the run off against Dardenne?  The only possibility I can think of is that Vitter voters are saying they would support Bel Edwards as a protest against Dardenne being too moderate for them.

At the end of the day, those Vitter voters would almost certainly vote for Dardenne if they vote at all.

That said, that in no way negates the theory that a lot of Dardenne voters (and some Angelle voters) might easily vote for Bel Edwards over Vitter and that Bel Edwards could defeat Vitter.
Logged
DON FARBIZIO CORBERA
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,379
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2015, 11:25:36 PM »

Vitter has a small edge, Edwards is exceedingly a good candidate. Blacks unlike the Senate race in 2014, maybe the balance of power. Turnout was low due to the inevitable GOP takeover. Along with MD, TX, MS & La itself have a substantial amount of blacks in the state. Tossup for me.

True. Not too many candidates can claim a couple years in prison on their resume!
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,718
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2015, 11:29:32 PM »

Vitter has a small edge, Edwards is exceedingly a good candidate. Blacks unlike the Senate race in 2014, maybe the balance of power. Turnout was low due to the inevitable GOP takeover. Along with MD, TX, MS & La itself have a substantial amount of blacks in the state. Tossup for me.

True. Not too many candidates can claim a couple years in prison on their resume!

When was John Bel Edwards in prison?
Logged
DON FARBIZIO CORBERA
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,379
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2015, 11:38:20 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2015, 11:41:48 PM by smilo »

Vitter has a small edge, Edwards is exceedingly a good candidate. Blacks unlike the Senate race in 2014, maybe the balance of power. Turnout was low due to the inevitable GOP takeover. Along with MD, TX, MS & La itself have a substantial amount of blacks in the state. Tossup for me.

True. Not too many candidates can claim a couple years in prison on their resume!

When was John Bel Edwards in prison?

Haha, I'm an idiot who hasn't been following this obscure race - imagined Edwin Edwards was giving is another shot like 2014 lol.  Did not realize he was ineligible for now.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,445
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2015, 01:54:40 PM »

Vitter has a small edge, Edwards is exceedingly a good candidate. Blacks unlike the Senate race in 2014, maybe the balance of power. Turnout was low due to the inevitable GOP takeover. Along with MD, TX, MS & La itself have a substantial amount of blacks in the state. Tossup for me.

True. Not too many candidates can claim a couple years in prison on their resume!
This isn't the former governor that is running
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,276
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2015, 01:49:45 PM »

Very odd results indeed. We'll have a better idea if Republicans have anything to worry about here after the jungle primary.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.185 seconds with 13 queries.