LA-Gov (PPP): Vitter set to make runoff, but trails Edwards in general

[136or142]

Could someone explain to me why Vitter is doing so badly? I'm not well-versed in Louisiana politics.

Just google either diaper and Vitter or Diaper Dave.

[136or142]

Whaaaaat

But anyway yeah, the source is pretty shady...

Prior to the 2014 election, PPP was probably the most highly regarded pollster, despite being a Democratic Party aligned firm. I don't think one bad election (which other pollsters also suffered, though not as badly as PPP) automatically makes them suspect, especially as there is no evidence that PPP deliberately manipulated their polls in 2014.

I'm not sure these numbers are completely accurate either, but I wrote here months ago that just because Diaper Dave was able to escape completely unscathed in his 2010 U.S Senate race by saying "God and my wife have forgiven me" and then refusing to answer any more questions on his dealings with prostitutes did not mean he would be able to this time around.

2010 was a wave Republican year and it's one thing for people to be willing to vote for a U.S Senator like David Vitter they'll see on television or read about maybe once a week at most, it's quite another to vote for a person like David Vitter as governor when they'll see him on television virtually every day.  Also, my belief, not that I have any evidence to back it up, but just from what I observe, is that many voters are willing to have a lower standard of behavior for a legislator as opposed to an executive.

[136or142]

So what a minute, all the Republicans get a combined 56% to Edward's 28% in the primary, but Vitter and the others are tied or losing in the runoff?? I'm calling complete bullsh**t.

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.

What

No clue why they think LA is trending D, but the 56 to 28 thing means that just because a voter is supporting a republican in the jungle doesn't mean they will vote for any republican in the runoff. Gov. Races are less partisan than Senate Races, and in fact, I wouldn't be attached to one party for the jungle and runoff if I lived in the state. My endorsement is for Dardenne, and I'd be ok with Angelle, but if the runoff is Vitter vs. Edwards, I'll endorse Edwards.

Also, regarding PPP, they were actually the most accurate 2014 pollster if you look at only gubernatorial races. And this happens to be a gubernatorial race. So, while this poll may be inaccurate, stop treating PPP like it's Magellan (R) or something.

Not every Republican jungle voter is going to vote Republican, but most of them will. If they don't, I will be shocked and apologize for being wrong, but I don't see how it would happen. PPP is a good pollster, but again, this happens to be a poll for Democrats anyway. I'm not going to just trust PPP like  its the God of polling or some sh**t.They can be wrong too. But lets look at some numbers:

All the results have between 12-20% undecided. Given the OP, how does, for example, Dardenne only get 42% out of the 56% total Republican jungle support. 14% of the Angelle/Vitter vote goes to Edwards? Vitter only gets 38% of 56%? So 18% of Angelle/Dardenne (out of 29%!) goes to Edwards AND some undecideds push Edward's way as well?

I don't find that realistic. At all. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I'd like to see more polls in the month there is left.

I agree with that.  The assumption is that it's Dardenne voters who are moving to Bel Edwards.  So, where does Bel Edwards gain his support from in the run off against Dardenne?  The only possibility I can think of is that Vitter voters are saying they would support Bel Edwards as a protest against Dardenne being too moderate for them.

At the end of the day, those Vitter voters would almost certainly vote for Dardenne if they vote at all.

That said, that in no way negates the theory that a lot of Dardenne voters (and some Angelle voters) might easily vote for Bel Edwards over Vitter and that Bel Edwards could defeat Vitter.