LA-Gov (PPP): Vitter set to make runoff, but trails Edwards in general

[ElectionsGuy]

So what a minute, all the Republicans get a combined 56% to Edward's 28% in the primary, but Vitter and the others are tied or losing in the runoff?? I'm calling complete bullsh**t.

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.

What

[ElectionsGuy]

^ It trended Democratic in 2012. A lot of it had to do with Katrina evacuees voting again who weren't settled back in for the 2008 election, though.

Pretty much all the McCain people voted Romney or didn't vote, and there was a higher black turnout to make it slight swing D. When you look at Louisiana in the long term, it strongly suggests Republicans will keep winning, and the state has strongly trended Republican in the past decade, shedding all its Democratic control in 2010/2011 and finally their last Democratic Senator in 2014.

I would think those white Catholics are a bit more flexible than their protestant counterparts, but Edwards would need 30% of the white vote to win. How much did Landrieu win? About 20%? I don't have any reason to believe he would do better.

[ElectionsGuy]

So what a minute, all the Republicans get a combined 56% to Edward's 28% in the primary, but Vitter and the others are tied or losing in the runoff?? I'm calling complete bullsh**t.

LA is a state that is trending Democratic pretty fast, but this is still a questionable poll. Moving this to Leans R, though. A runoff (with lower White turnout) is probably not good news for the Republican candidate.

What

No clue why they think LA is trending D, but the 56 to 28 thing means that just because a voter is supporting a republican in the jungle doesn't mean they will vote for any republican in the runoff. Gov. Races are less partisan than Senate Races, and in fact, I wouldn't be attached to one party for the jungle and runoff if I lived in the state. My endorsement is for Dardenne, and I'd be ok with Angelle, but if the runoff is Vitter vs. Edwards, I'll endorse Edwards.

Also, regarding PPP, they were actually the most accurate 2014 pollster if you look at only gubernatorial races. And this happens to be a gubernatorial race. So, while this poll may be inaccurate, stop treating PPP like it's Magellan (R) or something.

Not every Republican jungle voter is going to vote Republican, but most of them will. If they don't, I will be shocked and apologize for being wrong, but I don't see how it would happen. PPP is a good pollster, but again, this happens to be a poll for Democrats anyway. I'm not going to just trust PPP like  its the God of polling or some sh**t.They can be wrong too. But lets look at some numbers:

All the results have between 12-20% undecided. Given the OP, how does, for example, Dardenne only get 42% out of the 56% total Republican jungle support. 14% of the Angelle/Vitter vote goes to Edwards? Vitter only gets 38% of 56%? So 18% of Angelle/Dardenne (out of 29%!) goes to Edwards AND some undecideds push Edward's way as well?

I don't find that realistic. At all. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I'd like to see more polls in the month there is left.