WI/IL Clarity Campaign Labs: Duckworth+4, Feingold+8 (user search)
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  WI/IL Clarity Campaign Labs: Duckworth+4, Feingold+8 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI/IL Clarity Campaign Labs: Duckworth+4, Feingold+8  (Read 4655 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: September 17, 2015, 02:57:38 PM »

Terrible numbers for Duckworth, good ones for Feingold.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2015, 11:48:33 AM »

I still think Ron Johnson is much more vulnerable than Kirk. Wisconsin is one of the most inelastic states in the country (the Mississippi of the North, if you want) and it's just very hard to see a progressive, liberal electorate that voted for Tammy Baldwin over Tommy Thompson reelect a conservative like Johnson. Illinois at least has moderate Democratic-leaning voters that are willing to split to their ticket and unlike almost all the red state Democrats, Kirk IS an actual moderate (in fact, he's hardly a Republican). I'd be shocked if he lost by more than 4 or 5 points. Both races will be interesting to watch, I'm still convinced that at least one of them will win reelection (still rooting for Johnson because he's a decent Senator who at least has the guts to legislate as a Republican and Feingold is a fraud). My ratings at this point:
WI: Leans D (Johnson probably has to pull a Heitkamp to win this race, possible but unlikely at this point in time)
IL: Toss-up (This forum really overestimates how vulnerable Kirk is)

No. How does someone like JB Van Hollen (R) win by 16 points in the same year Doug LaFollette (D) wins by 3? Its a state that elected Ron Johnson, Tammy Baldwin, Scott Walker, and Barack Obama. Plus, look how much of non-southern Wisconsin swung in 2012! Outside the counties that are obvious strongholds, Wisconsin is in fact elastic.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2015, 06:00:28 PM »

^WI is a Toss-up state in midterm years and a pretty Democratic state at the presidential level. If WI is such an elastic state, why did Thommy Tompson have no crossover appeal at all in 2012? Also, this:



Hardly a sign of elasticity.

Thommy Thompson didn't run a campaign anything near to the effect of when he was governor. He was a huge disappointment, and in today's terms of polarization, he wasn't going to get much farther than Mitt Romney anyway. If you look at some of the rural counties, Baldwin actually outperformed Obama in many of them, but again southern Wisconsin is nearly exactly the same. To address the Walker elections, Walker had to have a lot of cross-over voters from 2008. He took them, and he held them gaining not much else over his elections. Its not like all the people who sit out in midterms are Democrats, and to back up that assertion is an exit poll showed that in the 2012 recall 18% of Walker voters planned on voting for Obama. Its sounds crazy, but its the truth.

I really understand where you're coming from, Wisconsin looks very inelastic on outside, but its really average as a whole.
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