Australia General Discussion 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ECSA has released the notional TPPs for the 15 seats with non-standard 2PPs. So we now have the official state 2PP:
Liberal - 51.9 (-1.1)
Labor - 48.1 (+1.1)

[Lachi]

It's really weir to see an opposition party win government despite having a swing against it. Only in SA I guess.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It's really weir to see an opposition party win government despite having a swing against it. Only in SA I guess.

I can think of a good few state elections where a party gained seats despite suffering a statewide swing against them, however I don't think there has been any previous examples of winning government with a swing against them. However I might go through them because I have a niggling feeling that it happened before.

[Lachi]

The proposed redistributions for the ACT and Victoria have been released, and under the new maps, would wipe out the government's majority, with Labor notionally picking up 3 seats, 2 new seats, 1 existing seat.

One new seat has been created in Victoria and a new seat in the ACT, bring them up to 38 and 3 respectively. This, along with the SA redistribution next Friday eliminating a seat there will raise the size of the HoR to 151 members.

VIC maps:
http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2017/vic/proposed-report/index.htm

ACT maps:
http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2017/act/proposed-report/index.htm

[Lachi]

VIC Major Changes:
New seat created in the NW suburbs of Melbourne, named Fraser, after the Fmr. PM Malcolm Fraser.
4 seats have had name changes:
-Corangamite changed to Cox
-Murray changed to Nicholls
-McMillan changed to Monash
-Melbourne Ports changed to Macnamara

Substantial boundary changes have changed the margins of many seats, flipping the seat of Dunkley, centred around Frankston, notionally Labor with a 2PP of 51.0, with the seat of Cox now on a margin, depending on the method used, of LIB 50.02% to LAB 50.1%.

Macnamara is now looking much better for the greens in 2019, they are now only 2.35% behind on primary, and with Danby being a very unpopular member, could see that seat flip in 2019 even if Labor is having a good night. Labor might want to think about ditching him in favor of a progressive candidate if they want to hold this seat in the future.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the ACT, there's only one actual way of doing it, and the AEC have done that. Fenner becoming solely Belconnen-Gungahlin, Canberra being the new seat in reality, taking in Canberra Central, North Woden and a Bite out of SE Belconnen, and the new seat (in name) taking in Tuggeranong, Weston and Southern Woden
Also, I hope that Labor pre-selects a woman for the Tuggeranong seat, as if they preselect a man the poor man will endlessly be nicknamed Mr Bean.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It's good for Labor in Victoria, they get the new seat of Fraser, While Dunkley and (barely) Cox flip to Labor. If a Liberal or NXT seat is abolished in SA then the notionals for the next election are Liberal 73 Labor 73. That is very good for Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

More in depth in Victoria:
The pattern is the usual pattern, the rural seats all grow, and shift closer to the city, the suburban seats are rotated to accommodate a new seat, while the inner city seats don't change at all. This time the new seat of Fraser is located, as expected, in the fast growing Western suburbs.
The rural seats of Wannon, Mallee, Nicholls (renamed Murray), Indi and Gippsland all continue on their slow march towards Melbourne. Wannon takes a good chunk of Corangamite, which is renamed Cox, which in return means the renamed Cox takes the rest of the Bellarine peninsula from the Geeling based Corio. In the east the slow westward march of Gippsland affects McMillan, which is renamed Monash and takes the East coast of Western Port (yes, it is a lazy name) from Flinders, which replaces it with Mornington. Meanwhile McMillan loses Pakenham to La Trobe, which compensates the gain by losing Sherbrooke to Casey. McEwen, the fastest growing seat in the state, loses its rural north, including Seymour, to Nicholls, and also loses the fast growing northern suburbs of Hume to Calwell. The new seat of Fraser is centred on Brimbank, taking roughly equal chunks from overpopulated Maribyrnong, Gellibrand, Gorton and Calwell. Gellibrand compensates by taking Eastern Wyndham from Lalor, bringing Lalor back to quota. Batman and Wills stay basically the same, while Melbourne loses Ascot Vale to Maribyrnong. Melbourne Ports hardly changes, but is renamed to MacNamara. Scullin loses Diamond Creek to Jagajaga, which likewise loses Eltham to Menzies. Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein and Aston suffer only superficial changes, while Deakin shifts east, taking Kilsyth from La Trobe in exchange for losing Blackburn to Chisholm, which swaps Oakleigh to Hotham for Glen Waverley from Bruce. Hotham and Bruce are both radically redrawn, Hotham loses its southern half, including Springvale and Cheltenham to Isaacs in exchange for Oakleigh from Chisolm and Mulgrave from Bruce. Bruce loses it's northern half, Glen Waverley to Chisholm and Mulgrave to Hotham, and takes Endeavour Hills and West Narre Warren from Holt, which, in exchange for losing its northern half to Bruce gains a chunk of Flinders. Isaacs, which gains Springvale and Cheltenham from Hotham loses Carrum Downs to Dunkley, which likewise loses Mornington to Flinders.

[Lachi]

You got Nicholls and Murray the wrong way, Murray is being renamed to Nicholls, not the other way around.

Also, I feel sorry for the person who becomes the member for Cox at the next election. hehe

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You got Nicholls and Murray the wrong way, Murray is being renamed to Nicholls, not the other way around.

Also, I feel sorry for the person who becomes the member for Cox at the next election. hehe

No, I just wasn't that clear. By Nicholls (renamed Murray) I meant Nicholls (the seat of Murray has been renamed)

[GoTfan]

Did anyone hear Hanson call the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games "too Aboriginal"?

[GoTfan]

Did anyone hear Hanson call the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games "too Aboriginal"?

She's gone and done it again.

https://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/punjabi/en/article/2018/04/09/international-students-should-have-no-work-rights-pauline-hanson

OMG DA EVUL ASHUNS WILL KILL US ALL!!!!!!!

[Lachi]

This came up on my Facebook just now:

NXT is to be renamed to Centre Alliance.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-10/nick-xenophons-party-drops-his-name/9636598

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This came up on my Facebook just now:

NXT is to be renamed to Centre Alliance.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-10/nick-xenophons-party-drops-his-name/9636598

Dropping the sole reason people vote for them from their name, what a great strategy. (sarcasm)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We have the SA redistribution, and Port Adelaide is abolished.

[Lachi]

If this ends up going through at the Vic. Liberal meeting next month, Labor has won the November election in a landslide.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guy-under-pressure-to-allow-gay-conversion-therapy-for-kids-20180414-p4z9lc.html

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If this ends up going through at the Vic. Liberal meeting next month, Labor has won the November election in a landslide.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guy-under-pressure-to-allow-gay-conversion-therapy-for-kids-20180414-p4z9lc.html

It's times like this I wonder why I'm a Liberal and how can we, as a party, be so supremely stupid.

[Lachi]

Just pointing out that if it went ahead, it would actually be a re-legalization of conversion therapy, it has currently been banned for the last 2-3 years.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Is CNN Fake News?

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/16/health/australia-flesh-eating-ulcer-intl/index.html

WTF? Since when have we had a flesh eating bacteria taking over the country?

CNN is just a marketing agency for globalist fantasy.

You cannot publish a story about this from the USA when no one in Australia knows what you are talking about.

[Lachi]

Is CNN Fake News?

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/16/health/australia-flesh-eating-ulcer-intl/index.html

WTF? Since when have we had a flesh eating bacteria taking over the country?

CNN is just a marketing agency for globalist fantasy.

You cannot publish a story about this from the USA when no one in Australia knows what you are talking about.

It was certainly in the news last night. You might not know about it though, since you probably don't get the Melbourne news.

[MaxQue]

Is CNN Fake News?

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/16/health/australia-flesh-eating-ulcer-intl/index.html

WTF? Since when have we had a flesh eating bacteria taking over the country?

CNN is just a marketing agency for globalist fantasy.

You cannot publish a story about this from the USA when no one in Australia knows what you are talking about.

I think the issue is some Australian sources hiding the information to not embarass the Liberals.

[Lachi]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/20-000-lashes-for-murder-liberal-party-branch-to-debate-proposal-for-corporal-punishment-20180507-p4zdup.html

WHAT THE ACTUAL FK!!!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We've got five by-elections called, Braddon, Fremantle, Longman, Mayo, Perth

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In addition there is the Darling Range by-election for the WA Legislative Assembly

[Lachi]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but unfortunately Australia's 22 year streak of no mass shootings has come to an end, with 7 people; 4 children, 3 adults (including the gunman, who shot himself), were killed on a rural property in the Margaret River region of Western Australia a couple of days ago.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/seven-people-found-dead-in-margaret-river-murder-suicide/9751482