ABC News/Wash Post: Clinton leads Trump
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Author Topic: ABC News/Wash Post: Clinton leads Trump  (Read 1880 times)
Skye
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« on: September 13, 2015, 10:07:16 AM »
Clinton 46
Trump 43

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http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1171a12016ClintonTrump.pdf
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2015, 10:08:53 AM »
I stopped reading when they said Trump is "anti-establishment."

They make it sound like Trump is someone who actually has to work for a living.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2015, 10:17:33 AM »
Good; Clinton is on the right track in def Trump.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2015, 04:03:17 PM »
Quote from: OC on September 13, 2015, 10:17:33 AM
Good; Clinton is on the right track in def Trump.

How on earth is the right track?!  She was leading him by large margins when he entered the race, and now she's only leading by four. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2015, 06:28:01 PM »
Trump was also trailing Walker in Iowa by double digits when she w was leading by a huge margin.

She still is favored over Trump, but clearly Jeb is more electable than Trump with his connection to Latinos.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2015, 08:07:09 PM »
That's some lead...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2015, 08:07:47 PM »
Trump would probably beat Clinton and Sanders. I think Biden is the Democrat's only hope against him.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2015, 10:08:40 PM »
The 46-43% margin is for registered voters, but 51-39% for all adults.

For registered voters, the gender gap is incredibly large.  Trump is +15% among men while Clinton is +21% among women.

We also have, by region…

Midwest: Trump +10%
Northeast: Clinton +31%
South: Trump +11%
West: Clinton +25%
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2015, 12:12:38 AM »
hardly call that a lead...
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2015, 03:21:59 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on September 13, 2015, 10:08:40 PM
The 46-43% margin is for registered voters, but 51-39% for all adults.

How much of that is due to non-citizens who can't register to vote?
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2015, 08:51:45 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on September 13, 2015, 10:08:40 PM
The 46-43% margin is for registered voters, but 51-39% for all adults.

For registered voters, the gender gap is incredibly large.  Trump is +15% among men while Clinton is +21% among women.

We also have, by region…

Midwest: Trump +10%
Northeast: Clinton +31%
South: Trump +11%
West: Clinton +25%


This suggests Trump could win the electoral college while losing the popular vote, if the poll is accurate, and remains accurate on election day. A ten point lead suggests Trump would win everything in the Midwest other than Illinois, no?
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2015, 10:22:10 AM »
Quote from: Torie on September 14, 2015, 08:51:45 AM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on September 13, 2015, 10:08:40 PM
The 46-43% margin is for registered voters, but 51-39% for all adults.

For registered voters, the gender gap is incredibly large.  Trump is +15% among men while Clinton is +21% among women.

We also have, by region…

Midwest: Trump +10%
Northeast: Clinton +31%
South: Trump +11%
West: Clinton +25%


This suggests Trump could win the electoral college while losing the popular vote, if the poll is accurate, and remains accurate on election day. A ten point lead suggests Trump would win everything in the Midwest other than Illinois, no?
Maybe. The Midwest was Obama +4. With a swing that big, perhaps your statement could become true.
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Zanas
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2015, 07:04:20 AM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on September 14, 2015, 10:22:10 AM
Quote from: Torie on September 14, 2015, 08:51:45 AM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on September 13, 2015, 10:08:40 PM
The 46-43% margin is for registered voters, but 51-39% for all adults.

For registered voters, the gender gap is incredibly large.  Trump is +15% among men while Clinton is +21% among women.

We also have, by region…

Midwest: Trump +10%
Northeast: Clinton +31%
South: Trump +11%
West: Clinton +25%


This suggests Trump could win the electoral college while losing the popular vote, if the poll is accurate, and remains accurate on election day. A ten point lead suggests Trump would win everything in the Midwest other than Illinois, no?
Maybe. The Midwest was Obama +4. With a swing that big, perhaps your statement could become true.
One should be pretty wary of subsamples.
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Bureaucat
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2015, 08:13:36 AM »
What's really interesting about this poll are the breakdowns by education and gender.

Non-college men are R+21; non-college women D+3
College men are R+2; college women are D+48

So while the overall gender gap in the poll is 36, which would be 14 more than ever recorded, the gap between college men and non-college women is only 5 points; the gender gap between college women and non-college men is 69 points.

If men are Mars and women Venus, college women and non-college men, are not on different planets, but in alternate universes.
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