The previous two posters in your county

[GregTheGreat657]

Herkimer County, New York

OSR (R-OR) 66%
CentristRepublican (I-CA) 34%

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

CR (I, Dem-endorsed) beats Greg (R) 48-44

[Schiff for Senate]

Koopa wins comfortably because she gets most of the Democratic vote (though Democratic turnout is kind of low, so her margin of victory is also lower than the usual 60-point margin). A  lot of third-party support here too.

KoopaDaQuick: 65%
GregTheGreat657: 27%

[GregTheGreat657]

Herkimer County, New York

CentristRepublican (I, R-endorsed) 55%
KoopaDaQuick (I, D-endorsed) 43%

While CentristRepublican is a poor fit for the county's Rust Belt towns where most of the population lives, the fact that he is endorsed by Republican figures in such a solidly Republican county is more than enough to get him over the hump

[Schiff for Senate]

Herkimer County, New York

CentristRepublican (I, R-endorsed) 55%
KoopaDaQuick (I, D-endorsed) 43%

While CentristRepublican is a poor fit for the county's Rust Belt towns where most of the population lives, the fact that he is endorsed by Republican figures in such a solidly Republican county is more than enough to get him over the hump

Would my disavowal of the endorsement of any and all pro-Big-Lie Republicans change this?

[GregTheGreat657]

Herkimer County, New York

CentristRepublican (I, R-endorsed) 55%
KoopaDaQuick (I, D-endorsed) 43%

While CentristRepublican is a poor fit for the county's Rust Belt towns where most of the population lives, the fact that he is endorsed by Republican figures in such a solidly Republican county is more than enough to get him over the hump

Would my disavowal of the endorsement of any and all pro-Big-Lie Republicans change this?

Just the fact that they endorsed you at all, as well as your more conservative stances compared to Koopa would be enough

[Schiff for Senate]

Herkimer County, New York

CentristRepublican (I, R-endorsed) 55%
KoopaDaQuick (I, D-endorsed) 43%

While CentristRepublican is a poor fit for the county's Rust Belt towns where most of the population lives, the fact that he is endorsed by Republican figures in such a solidly Republican county is more than enough to get him over the hump

Would my disavowal of the endorsement of any and all pro-Big-Lie Republicans change this?

Just the fact that they endorsed you at all, as well as your more conservative stances compared to Koopa would be enough

Really? I feel like if I emphasized my anti-Trump, anti-Big-Lie, and generally more left-wing/centrist views, I'd put off most conservatives and get them to stay home, enough for Koopa (with the support of many Democrats, and with Democrats turning out at a decent rate) to eke out a win. On the other hand, given that Herkimer's a more than Trump+30 county, I might just be overestimating my toxicity with the GOP Base.

[GregTheGreat657]

Herkimer County, New York

CentristRepublican (I, R-endorsed) 55%
KoopaDaQuick (I, D-endorsed) 43%

While CentristRepublican is a poor fit for the county's Rust Belt towns where most of the population lives, the fact that he is endorsed by Republican figures in such a solidly Republican county is more than enough to get him over the hump

Would my disavowal of the endorsement of any and all pro-Big-Lie Republicans change this?

Just the fact that they endorsed you at all, as well as your more conservative stances compared to Koopa would be enough

Really? I feel like if I emphasized my anti-Trump, anti-Big-Lie, and generally more left-wing/centrist views, I'd put off most conservatives and get them to stay home, enough for Koopa (with the support of many Democrats, and with Democrats turning out at a decent rate) to eke out a win. On the other hand, given that Herkimer's a more than Trump+30 county, I might just be overestimating my toxicity with the GOP Base.

Some conservatives might begrudgingly vote for you to stop Koopa, who they view as more liberal from getting elected, even if you play up your more liberal or moderate positions, and there has been a WWC realignment since McCain and Romney won the county by high single digits

[OBD]

CR 57%
Greg 38%

Heavy abstentionism narrows the margin somewhat. 

[Vice President Christian Man]

CR 57%
Greg 38%

Heavy abstentionism narrows the margin somewhat. 

OBD: 60%
GTG: 37%

Greg is not a good fit for my county but he could win over some WWC voters if he appeals to them enough.

[beesley]

OBD 55%
Christian Man 36%

[Schiff for Senate]

No offense to Christian Man, but he's a horrible fit for my county. I'd say he wins something like 15% or 16%. Beesley gets about 60%, with the remainder going to some liberal write-in or independents.

[GregTheGreat657]

CR 51%
beesley 45%

[DPKdebator]

Norfolk County, MA

CentristRepublican (D): 63%
GregTheGreat657 (R): 34%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wow! Tough one.

Maybe GregtheGreat 53-47?

[GregTheGreat657]

Herkimer County, New York

DPKdebator 66%
Progressive Pessimist 30.5%

[West_Midlander]

Greg wins w/ 55%

[TPIG]

West_Midlander gets 63% of the vote - Fulton county

[Mr. Smith]

TPIG wins by 55%, because he's more nominally Christian. [Brazos, Tx]

[TDAS04]

TPIG wins by 6-7%.

[West_Midlander]

TDAS wins 60-40 in the D primary.

[Utah Neolib]

Tooele County, Utah
West_Midlander wins, 70-30.