“Neither of the NPR employees voted for Bush”

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How many times do we have to go through this.....

Bush won those with an undergrad degree by several points, while Kerry won those with a high school education by a point.   Kerry did win those with post graduate degrees - but enough of those would be lawyers to tip that balance.

That having been said, I don't believe that individuals with college degrees are smarter than those of us who don't have them.  Its just that the above argument makes a whole lot more sense than yours.

Those who can, do.
Those who can't, teach.

Most people with graduate degrees are not lawyers.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I was surprised to see that California, hardly Bush country, was in the bottom ten.

http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-550.pdf

You can thank Prop 13, which was passed by anti-tax zealots, for that. Also, CA has a lot of immigrants.

Another this, is a HS diploma equivalent from state to staet? I have the feeling a NY HS diploma is more meaningful than an AL one.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CA's educational system fell apart long before that, jfern.  They were the first to adopt the experimental education methods from the 60s and early 70s.  They are now among the last to drop these widely discredited programs.

What experimental education methods? I've haeard that CA had pretty good schools before Prop. 13 was passed in 1978.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Shira is correct, the educated states, measured by the 2002 data on what percentage of people 25 or older have a bachelor's degree, tended to vote for Kerry.

Perhaps some states with high HS graduation rates and low rates of bachelor's degrees did not do a good job of preparing their kids for college.

Maryland        37.6
Colorado    35.7
Virginia    34.6
Massachusetts    34.3
Connecticut    32.6
New Jersey    31.4
Vermont            30.8
Minnesota    30.5
New Hampshire    30.1
Rhode Island    30.1
Delaware    29.5
Kansas            29.1
New York    28.8
Washington    28.3
California    27.9
Illinois    27.3
Nebraska    27.1
Oregon            27.1
Hawaii            26.8
Utah            26.8
Missouri    26.7
Arizona            26.3
Texas            26.2
Pennsylvania    26.1
Florida            25.7
Alaska            25.6
New Mexico    25.4
North Dakota    25.3
Georgia            25.0
Wisconsin    24.7
Ohio            24.5
Maine            23.8
Indiana            23.7
Montana            23.6
South Dakota    23.6
South Carolina    23.3
Iowa            23.1
Alabama            22.7
Michigan    22.5
North Carolina    22.4
Louisiana    22.1
Nevada            22.1
Kentucky    21.6
Tennessee    21.5
Idaho            20.9
Mississippi    20.9
Oklahoma    20.4
Wyoming            19.6
Arkansas    18.3
West Virginia    15.9

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CA's educational system fell apart long before that, jfern.  They were the first to adopt the experimental education methods from the 60s and early 70s.  They are now among the last to drop these widely discredited programs.

What experimental education methods? I've haeard that CA had pretty good schools before Prop. 13 was passed in 1978.

Personal grammar (there is no proper grammar, write how you want), personal spelling (same as above, for spelling), hands off science instruction (let the kids loose in a field so they can learn biology) and a variety of other hair-brained, highly unsuccessful programs got their start in California before Prop 13 ever saw the ballot box.  Some schools still practice them.

I agree, those sound dumb, although a limited number of field trips in a biology class isn't a bad idea.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Shira is correct, the educated states, measured by the 2002 data on what percentage of people 25 or older have a bachelor's degree, tended to vote for Kerry.

Perhaps some states with high HS graduation rates and low rates of bachelor's degrees did not do a good job of preparing their kids for college.

Assuming that ranking is correct, we don't find a strong relationship

The bolded ones are Bush states:

Maryland        37.6
Colorado    35.7
Virginia    34.6
Massachusetts    34.3
Connecticut    32.6
New Jersey    31.4
Vermont            30.8
Minnesota    30.5
New Hampshire    30.1
Rhode Island    30.1
Delaware    29.5
Kansas            29.1
New York    28.8
Washington    28.3
California    27.9
Illinois    27.3
Nebraska    27.1
Oregon            27.1
Hawaii            26.8
Utah            26.8
Missouri    26.7
Arizona            26.3
Texas            26.2
Pennsylvania    26.1
Florida            25.7
Alaska            25.6
New Mexico    25.4
North Dakota    25.3
Georgia            25.0
Wisconsin    24.7
Ohio            24.5
Maine            23.8
Indiana            23.7
Montana            23.6
South Dakota    23.6
South Carolina    23.3
Iowa            23.1
Alabama            22.7
Michigan    22.5
North Carolina    22.4
Louisiana    22.1
Nevada            22.1
Kentucky    21.6
Tennessee    21.5
Idaho            20.9
Mississippi    20.9
Oklahoma    20.4
Wyoming            19.6
Arkansas    18.3
West Virginia    15.9

You also have the situation of Bush winning more states.  Even if you go into the really close states (NH, WI, NV, AZ), there really isn't a correlation.  We should be seeing all of those grouped around the same educational level; that is not the case.

It does illustrate the Northeast, Pacific Rim breakdown reasonably well.

I would like to see a link and where DC ranks.

It's a significant difference, even though you screwed up Michigan.

15/19 of the most educated went for Kerry.
4/31 of the least educated went for Kerry.

If it was truly random, the probability of that would be 19 choose 15 * 31 choose 4 / 50 choose 19 = 4.011 * 10^-6.

That gives us most of the one sided test probability 4.157 * 10^-6

Due to symmetry, the two sided test is then 8.314*10^-6

True, the 19 / 31 I picked was somewhat arbitrary, although it's also the number of states that went for Kerry and Bush respectively. Still we have a strong correlation between ranking (note that I never used the actual percentage) and who they voted for.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's a significant difference, even though you screwed up Michigan.

15/19 of the most educated went for Kerry.
4/31 of the least educated went for Kerry.

If it was truly random, the probability of that would be 19 choose 15 * 31 choose 4 / 50 choose 19 = 4.011 * 10^-6.

That gives us most of the one sided test probability 4.157 * 10^-6

Due to symmetry, the two sided test is then 8.314*10^-6

True, the 19 / 31 I picked was somewhat arbitrary, although it's also the number of states that went for Kerry and Bush respectively. Still we have a strong correlation between ranking (note that I never used the actual percentage) and who they voted for.

Wrong again, at it's your model that is wrong.  These are not random and we know the data.

We know that there were these four states that were relatively close, NM, NV, NH, WI.  If the premise is correct, then they should have similar educational levels.

NM has 25.4% college graduate levels, which is -10.3 points below the the highest Bush state , CO (35.7%) and +9.5 above the lowest Bush state (WV, 15.9%)

NV is at 22.1% -13.6 from high, and +6.3 from low.

NH (30.1%) is -7.6 from Kerry's high (MD 37.6, more from DC 45%+) and +8.6 from the low (MI 22.5%).

WI (24.7%) is -12.9 from Kerry's high and +2.2 of the low.

Now, comparing the states you have the highest NH (30.1) with the losest NV (22.1%) with an 8 point difference (which is actually larger than some of the difference between some of the "Kerry carried" results).  You shouldn't have this if education was a major factor.  Those four states should have had similar education levels.

I said assuming they were random. Oh, well, you'll say I'm wrong on statistics just out of principle.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Shira is correct, the educated states, measured by the 2002 data on what percentage of people 25 or older have a bachelor's degree, tended to vote for Kerry.

Perhaps some states with high HS graduation rates and low rates of bachelor's degrees did not do a good job of preparing their kids for college.

Maryland        37.6
Colorado    35.7
Virginia    34.6
Massachusetts    34.3
Connecticut    32.6
New Jersey    31.4
Vermont            30.8
Minnesota    30.5
New Hampshire    30.1
Rhode Island    30.1
Delaware    29.5
Kansas            29.1
New York    28.8
Washington    28.3
California    27.9
Illinois    27.3
Nebraska    27.1
Oregon            27.1
Hawaii            26.8
Utah            26.8
Missouri    26.7
Arizona            26.3
Texas            26.2
Pennsylvania    26.1
Florida            25.7
Alaska            25.6
New Mexico    25.4
North Dakota    25.3
Georgia            25.0
Wisconsin    24.7
Ohio            24.5
Maine            23.8
Indiana            23.7
Montana            23.6
South Dakota    23.6
South Carolina    23.3
Iowa            23.1
Alabama            22.7
Michigan    22.5
North Carolina    22.4
Louisiana    22.1
Nevada            22.1
Kentucky    21.6
Tennessee    21.5
Idaho            20.9
Mississippi    20.9
Oklahoma    20.4
Wyoming            19.6
Arkansas    18.3
West Virginia    15.9

What this doesn't tell you is which people within those so-called educated states voted for Bush, versus Kerry. 

If a state with a high percentage of college grads voted 51% for Kerry and 49% for Bush, while a state with a low percentage of college grads voted 51% for Bush and 49% for Kerry, does that mean that more educated people voted for Kerry?  You can't come to a valid conclusion through a high level state analysis like that.  Exit polls show that college graduates favored Bush, and that is probably more valid than your state-by-state analysis, which doesn't identify the educational status of the large minority of people within the state who voted for the candidate who did not carry that state.

Shira's logic is that of a sixth grader, and her statements are so stupid as to be grating.  She doesn't know s**t from apple butter as far as I'm concerned.

Well, obviously statistics can be mis-interprented. Here's a good example of where it's easy to screw up: AL was better for Bush than MS, MS whites were more pro-Bush, and so were MS blacks. It's only because MS has more blacks that AL was better for Bush.

That aside, here's the exit polls on education:

National
Catagory 1: No HS (4%) Kerry wins 50-49
Catagory 2: HS diploma only (22%) Bush wins 52-47
Catagory 3: Some college, but no bachelors (32%) Bush wins 54-46%
Catagory 4: Bachelors but no post-graduate study (26%) Bush wins 52-46
Catagory 5: Post-graduate study (16%) Kerry wins 55%-44%

Compared to average Kerry runs stronger among #1 (4 points better) and #5 (14 points better). Bush runs better amoung #2 (2 points better), #3 (5 points better), and #4 (3 points better).

The 42% with a bachelors degere in #4 and #5 has a tie, (3 points better for Kerry than average)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

We can look at regions.

East
#1: 4%, Kerry landslides 74-26
#2: 19% Kerry wins 54-45
#3: 29% Kerry wins 51-48
#4: 26% Kerry wins 56-42
#5: 22% Solid Kerry win 62-37

#1+#2+#3: 52%, Kerry wins 54-45
#4+#5: 48% Kerry wins 59-40

Mid-west
#1: 4%, Kerry wins 52-48
#2: 26%, Kerry wins 51-48
#3: 33%, Bush wins 50-49
#4: 22%, Bush wins 55-44
#5: 15% Bush wins 50-48

#1+#2+#3: 63%, Kerry wins 50-49
#4+#5,: 37%, Bush 53-46

South:
#1: 5%, Bush wins 60-39
#2: 23%, Bush wins 56-43
#3: 31%, Bush wins 60-40
#4: 27%, Bush wins 61-38
#5: 14%, Bush wins 54-46

#1+#2+#3: 59%, Bush wins 58-41
#4+#5: 41%, Bush wins 58-41

West:
#1: 4%, Bush wins 52-45
#2: 17%, Bush wins 58-42
#3: 35%, Bush wins 54-45
#4: 28%, Kerry wins 50-47
#5: 17%,  Kerry wins 63-35

#1+#2+#3: 56%, Bush wins 55-44
#4+#5, 44%, Kerry wins 55-43

This does not take into account the quality of education.

The east is #1 in education and #1 in pro-Kerry. It has a moderately strong postive correlation between Kerry and education

The west is #2 in education and #2 in pro-Kerry. It has a very strong postive correlation between Kerry and education

The mid-west is #3 in education and #3 in pro-Kerry. It has a moderately strong negative correlation between Kerry and education

The south is #4 in education and #4 in pro-Kerry. It has basically no correlation between Kerry and education.