Poll of the holidays, Labor Day edition: will Trump still lead by Columbus Day?

[The Mikado]

If Trump is still ahead on Columbus Day, I'll make one of these for Halloween, then Veterans' Day, etc.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, but I think he'll collapse by Christmas.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yes, but his surge will have stopped by then.

[Ljube]

Yes, no question about it.

[Torie]

I've decided I won't make any predictions about Trump. I don't understand the phenomenon at all, and have no idea whether the polls are a serious indicator of actual voting intentions, or a manifestation of ignorance, or just sending a message, as opposed to real voting intentions, and so forth. What I do know is that our political system is in disarray, and does not work very well. So many are looking for a caudillo.

[/]

Yes, probably.

[Maxwell]

I don't know: I think the Carson surge is beginning, and though I don't think Trump will be down and out by then, I think Carson will start leading in some polls.

[Skye]

Voted Yes, hope I'm wrong.

[Ljube]

I've decided I won't make any predictions about Trump. I don't understand the phenomenon at all, and have no idea whether the polls are a serious indicator of actual voting intentions, or a manifestation of ignorance, or just sending a message, as opposed to real voting intentions, and so forth. What I do know is that our political system is in disarray, and does not work very well. So many are looking for a caudillo.

You are old enough to remember Ronald Reagan.
How come you don't understand the Trump phenomenon?

[Kingpoleon]

Voted Yes, hope I'm wrong.

[The Mikado]

I don't know: I think the Carson surge is beginning, and though I don't think Trump will be down and out by then, I think Carson will start leading in some polls.

I think the Carson surge is beginning, but so far, Carson's rise is not coming out of Trump's support. Poll after poll has shown Trump remaining steady or going slightly up while Carson is surging. Carson is, I think, a mixture of being the factional evangelical candidate (now that he's solidly emerging as such that's a good strong base of support right there) plus support coming from people looking for a gentler, less abrasive, wiser face of Trumpism. I think that Carson's support is coming out of the establishment candidates' hides plus Huck's hide, not Trump's.

[Figueira]

Yes, I don't think Trump will ever implode. If he loses the primaries, he'll lose to whomever emerges as the anti-Trump (my guess is Rubio), but I'm not even sure that is a guarantee.

[Ljube]

Yes, I don't think Trump will ever implode. If he loses the primaries, he'll lose to whomever emerges as the anti-Trump (my guess is Rubio), but I'm not even sure that is a guarantee.

The anti-Trump could also be Kasich. He has strong support in New Hampshire and if he won there, he could emerge as the anti-Trump.

[Figueira]

Yes, I don't think Trump will ever implode. If he loses the primaries, he'll lose to whomever emerges as the anti-Trump (my guess is Rubio), but I'm not even sure that is a guarantee.

The anti-Trump could also be Kasich. He has strong support in New Hampshire and if he won there, he could emerge as the anti-Trump.

I wouldn't count out that possibility, but I think some of Kasich's rhetoric might be too moderate-sounding.

[Suburbia]

Yes. I think GOP voters are fed up. They're not going traditional anymore. This fall campaign season will be unorthodox.

[dudeabides]

Four years ago, Rick Perry led the pack during late summer, Herman Cain surged in the early fall, Newt Gingrich was surging by November/December, and then Mitt Romney took the lead and the momentum.

I expect Carson to surge, then maybe Fiorina, then Governor Bush once we get closer to the Iowa Caucus. Whoever wins Iowa will surge, then the New Hampshire winner, then whoever the front-runner will become will surge. Chances are, that's either Bush, Rubio, or Kasich. Scott Walker is running such a terrible campaign that he has ended any chance he had at this, he shouldn't have made stupid statements like the one about the Canadian border, he should have run as an authentic candidate who is unapologetic in his beliefs, he's a total flip-flop now. Huckabee conceded defeat when he announced he would visit Kim Davis in jail. Rand Paul could surprise us.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I expect Trump to remain a contender for some time. He should stay in the lead until at least December. At that point, polls will start to only include 'likely' caucus/primary voters, which may be less likely to vote for Trump than a wider group of 'registered voters' or 'adults identifying as republicans'. At that point, there are 3 possibilities.

1) Trump retains a convincing lead even with the 'real' electorate and effectively locks up the nomination by Super Tuesday
2) Trump falls some, and does well enough in the early states/super tuesday only to remain a contender, not to retain frontrunner status. He battles for the nomination with one or more other candidates until April or later but (probably) loses in the end.
3) Trump implodes and drops out by Super Tuesday. Potentially challenges Gary Johnson for the libertarian nomination.

[The Mikado]

Four years ago, Rick Perry led the pack during late summer, Herman Cain surged in the early fall, Newt Gingrich was surging by November/December, and then Mitt Romney took the lead and the momentum.

This is a pretty ridiculous comparison.




RCP averages vs RCP averages up to this point in 2011.

Note

A. that Trump has been leading for nearly two months now, longer than any of the 2011 flavor of the month candidates. Perry had a huge media wave relating to his Labor Day weekend late entrance into the race that propelled him into #1.

B. More importantly, note how well Mitt Romney was doing even at the height of Perry's surge. By the end of September Mitt will be back over 20% and never drop below that line again, and is closer to 25% for most of the rest of the race, during periods he'll be basically tied with Cain and Gingrich. Trump, on the other hand...is by himself. Jeb Bush is polling about as well as Ron Paul was at this time four years ago, and Carson is just starting to break from the pack.

There's a giant Romney-shaped hole in the 2012-2016 comparison. That and Trump has already proven more durable than any of the flavor of the month candidates: he'll be celebrating two months leading the polling averages next Monday. Gingrich, the longest-lasting of the 2012 guys, made it a month and a half.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Four years ago, Rick Perry led the pack during late summer, Herman Cain surged in the early fall, Newt Gingrich was surging by November/December, and then Mitt Romney took the lead and the momentum.

I expect Carson to surge, then maybe Fiorina, then Governor Bush once we get closer to the Iowa Caucus. Whoever wins Iowa will surge, then the New Hampshire winner, then whoever the front-runner will become will surge. Chances are, that's either Bush, Rubio, or Kasich. Scott Walker is running such a terrible campaign that he has ended any chance he had at this, he shouldn't have made stupid statements like the one about the Canadian border, he should have run as an authentic candidate who is unapologetic in his beliefs, he's a total flip-flop now. Huckabee conceded defeat when he announced he would visit Kim Davis in jail. Rand Paul could surprise us.

I very much believe that the Trump surge is in no small measure fueled by the majority of Republicans being fed up with the Bushes and not wanting another Bush on the ticket to ruin the brand.  They've lived through two (2) separate Bush Presidencies, and in terms of politics, neither ended well. 

I also think that some of the GOP has the good sense to want to stick the Democrats with the "dynasty" issue.  All else aside, Americans, to some extent, look askance at "dynasties", and Hillary's campaign is an attempt at that.  The idea of Hillary vs. Jeb is doubly repulsive to a number of voters in BOTH parties.  I believe that Jeb Bush leaving the race would, in fact, be an event that would take some of the air out of Trump's balloon.

How about it, dudeabides?  Is your Jebby man enough to take one for the team and drop out in order to stop Trump?

[dudeabides]

Four years ago, Rick Perry led the pack during late summer, Herman Cain surged in the early fall, Newt Gingrich was surging by November/December, and then Mitt Romney took the lead and the momentum.

I expect Carson to surge, then maybe Fiorina, then Governor Bush once we get closer to the Iowa Caucus. Whoever wins Iowa will surge, then the New Hampshire winner, then whoever the front-runner will become will surge. Chances are, that's either Bush, Rubio, or Kasich. Scott Walker is running such a terrible campaign that he has ended any chance he had at this, he shouldn't have made stupid statements like the one about the Canadian border, he should have run as an authentic candidate who is unapologetic in his beliefs, he's a total flip-flop now. Huckabee conceded defeat when he announced he would visit Kim Davis in jail. Rand Paul could surprise us.

I very much believe that the Trump surge is in no small measure fueled by the majority of Republicans being fed up with the Bushes and not wanting another Bush on the ticket to ruin the brand.  They've lived through two (2) separate Bush Presidencies, and in terms of politics, neither ended well. 

I also think that some of the GOP has the good sense to want to stick the Democrats with the "dynasty" issue.  All else aside, Americans, to some extent, look askance at "dynasties", and Hillary's campaign is an attempt at that.  The idea of Hillary vs. Jeb is doubly repulsive to a number of voters in BOTH parties.  I believe that Jeb Bush leaving the race would, in fact, be an event that would take some of the air out of Trump's balloon.

How about it, dudeabides?  Is your Jebby man enough to take one for the team and drop out in order to stop Trump?

People are not supporting Trump to oppose Bush, Rubio is basically Bush on the issues and in terms of who he can appeal to without the last name. People only support Trump because they are scared, angry, not well read, and tired of politicians.

The majority of Republicans are not with Trump, the party is divided. Trump has a plurality, but there are 17 candidates. It's Jeb Bush's job to convince voters he isn't his father or his brother, that process can take some time and we are seeing that in polling. In the end, much like voters saw Bush 43 was not Bush 41 in 2000, Jeb will be judged on his own record and vision, not that of his brother or fathers.

As for the dynasty issue, Americans elected two Bushes because they felt they were the best candidates for the job at the times they ran. It remains to be seen if Americans believe Jeb Bush is the best candidate. I knew going into this process Jeb's path to the GOP nomination would be difficult, I think he is made for a general election just like his father was in 1988.

Do I think Bush would drop out to deny Trump the GOP nomination? Absolutely. He doesn't want a socialist as President. But, I don't see him doing so because in the end, the GOP primary electorate wants to win, they want to with with a champion of free markets, fiscal discipline, and a strong national defense - Governor Bush fits the bill and even if his name were Jeb Smith, he would still.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes; the GOP party isnt the Bush policy on amnesty anymore. Once again the Tea Party has pulled it to right over boarder control.

[Oak Hills]

Dudeabides, please stop calling Trump a socialist.  Do I really have to explain to you why that allegation is absurd?

[heatmaster]

Dudeabides is correct in his analysis of Trump, Trump is a "limousine liberal", his hypocrisy knows no equal. He is a hate monger and leads from behind, unlike Reagan who spoke of optimism and was a lead and comparing Trump to Reagan is simply ludicrous. Ben Carson is more Reaganesque by a country mile. Bush might be 'low energy' by Trump's grandstanding definition,  but I think Trump suffers from ADDS (attention deficit disorder syndrome), he's not a well man. He needs medical, maybe psychiatric help😉 and anyone who is advocating Trump's candidacy, is obviously suffering from delusional notions & should seek help. Anger at the political class isn't a logical solution and supporting Trump, shows you need medical help, have Dr. Carson refer you to a specialist and everything will be okay again. You "Trump supporters"  need to start the healing.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Heatmaster, supporting Trump is not the result of some sort of mental illness or something. He has genuine appeal across many wings of the party and has a legitimate shot at the nomination.

[dudeabides]

Dudeabides, please stop calling Trump a socialist.  Do I really have to explain to you why that allegation is absurd?

Here is where I prove Trump is, in fact, a socialist

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http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/socialism

Trump's positions:

Property rights:

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http://www.nationalreview.com/article/265171/donald-trump-and-eminent-domain-robert-verbruggen

Health Care:

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http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-supports-national-health-care-2011-4

Taxation:

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http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2015/sep/02/jeb-bush/did-donald-trump-propose-biggest-tax-hike-history-/

Trump's position on trade = the same as "Socialist Action", see for yourself:

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http://socialistaction.org/against-free-trade-and-against-protectionism/


I accept your apology.