Will Hillary win the general election?

[Joe Republic]

Based on how things look right now, Donald Trump will be elected President of the United States next November.  Obviously that's not actually happening, so yes, I still think Hillary will win.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The election is 14 months away. Jesus christ you people need to stop over-reacting.

[Figueira]

Are you voting based on what you WANT to happen or what you THINK will happen?

What I think will happen. What about you?

[bobloblaw]

Id say yes, but by 1-2 points less than Obama in 2012.

She'll also have a 35% approval rating by summer 2017

[politicus]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

[bobloblaw]

If Richard Nixon could 1968 despite all the actual scandals he already had under belt, then so can Hillary.

If he almost won 1960 even.

Nixon had NO scandals in 1968. Outing Alger Hiss wasnt a scandal. Hiss was actually a communist. Like most liberals

[bobloblaw]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

[Blair]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

[bobloblaw]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

2000 3.8% unemployment, 4.5% GDP growth and a $250b surplus. Yet Gore lost anyway.

Please post the poll showing Herman Cain beating Obama

[Blair]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

2000 3.8% unemployment, 4.5% GDP growth and a $250b surplus. Yet Gore lost anyway.

Please post the poll showing Herman Cain beating Obama

Did you not see where I wrote that 2000 was the exception....


http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/10/12/poll-herman-cain-rick-perry-mitt-romney-all-beat-obama

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/herman-cain-beats-president-obama-latest-poll-gop-debate-tap-article-1.966015

http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/17/poll-herman-cain-now-leads-obama/

[MT Treasurer]

Pretty comfortably, yes.  

She's very popular with both minorities and women.    I don't see how the GOP can be competitive in Virginia or Florida either.

LOL

Florida

Bush: 49%
Clinton: 38%

Rubio: 51%
Clinton: 39%

Trump: 43%
Clinton: 41%

Bush: 51%
Biden: 38%

Rubio: 48%
Biden: 42%

Biden: 45%
Trump: 42%

Bush: 54%
Sanders: 35%

Rubio: 52%
Sanders: 36%

Trump: 45%
Sanders: 41%

Clinton: 37%
Bush: 36%
Trump: 19%

That being said,

I'm going to say it will be like the 2000 election all over again, with either Ohio or Florida Virginia or Pennsylvania being too close to call.

She still has the advantage because of Republican stupidity.

[bobloblaw]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

There is no "Third Term Theory" It is FACT that the party in power when they run for a third consecutive term, that party loses a minimum of 4 points in the two party NPV. Years like 1988 are enough to keep the party from losing. But when the incumbent has a 45% approval rating and won the last election by 51.1%, there isnt much room for error much less a elderly hag criminal with no people skills who keeps a server at her home and lies constantly about it.

[bobloblaw]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

2000 3.8% unemployment, 4.5% GDP growth and a $250b surplus. Yet Gore lost anyway.

Please post the poll showing Herman Cain beating Obama

Did you not see where I wrote that 2000 was the exception....


http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/10/12/poll-herman-cain-rick-perry-mitt-romney-all-beat-obama

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/herman-cain-beats-president-obama-latest-poll-gop-debate-tap-article-1.966015

http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/17/poll-herman-cain-now-leads-obama/

Polls of Iowa and NH are more accurate than a Rasmussen poll of national voters.

Fact is IA and NH are the only two states receiving any attention and they both dislike Hillary. The more people are exposed to Hillary, the more they dislike her.

[Blair]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

There is no "Third Term Theory" It is FACT that the party in power when they run for a third consecutive term, that party loses a minimum of 4 points in the two party NPV. Years like 1988 are enough to keep the party from losing. But when the incumbent has a 45% approval rating and won the last election by 51.1%, there isnt much room for error much less a elderly hag criminal with no people skills who keeps a server at her home and lies constantly about it.

I'm sure Hillary talks highly of you too

[bobloblaw]

Dont get me wrong. I think long term and I wouldnt mind at all if Hillary won. By 2020, she'll be run out of DC tarred and feathered.

[bobloblaw]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

There is no "Third Term Theory" It is FACT that the party in power when they run for a third consecutive term, that party loses a minimum of 4 points in the two party NPV. Years like 1988 are enough to keep the party from losing. But when the incumbent has a 45% approval rating and won the last election by 51.1%, there isnt much room for error much less a elderly hag criminal with no people skills who keeps a server at her home and lies constantly about it.

I'm sure Hillary talks highly of you too

If I had Hillary's background, Id have the decency not to run

[WVdemocrat]

I'm gonna predict that she'll win by a margin slightly bigger than Obama's 2012 margin.

[Blair]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

Yes, at least in the electoral college.

Well she cant count on IA and NH. She is trailing now in both.

The Dem party will Rue the day she won.

Oh Yeah I forgot a poll what 14 months before the election is binding. Hermain Cain was beating Obama in 2011 IIRC

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

The third term theory always puzzles me because aside from 2000 (if you ignore Monica) there tends to be a major event that swings the 3rd term to the other party-often a deeply unpopular president.

1960- Economy in recession, Cuba/Missile Gap, the election was so close
1968- America was breaking- MLK/RFK assassinations, Vietnam, Wallace
2008- Recession, Iraq, Bush at 22%

There needs to be a major economic upset or something causing Obama to plummet in the polls to push HRC out of it completely

There is no "Third Term Theory" It is FACT that the party in power when they run for a third consecutive term, that party loses a minimum of 4 points in the two party NPV. Years like 1988 are enough to keep the party from losing. But when the incumbent has a 45% approval rating and won the last election by 51.1%, there isnt much room for error much less a elderly hag criminal with no people skills who keeps a server at her home and lies constantly about it.

I'm sure Hillary talks highly of you too

If I had Hillary's background, Id have the decency not to run

Which justifies you being sexist how?

[NeverAgain]

I'm gonna predict that she'll win by a margin slightly bigger than Obama's 2012 margin.

I'd find that hard to believe as people are Democratically tired + she doesn't have the full Democratic base behind her.

[Podgy the Bear]

I'm gonna predict that she'll win by a margin slightly bigger than Obama's 2012 margin.

I'd find that hard to believe as people are Democratically tired + she doesn't have the full Democratic base behind her.

The full Democratic base will come behind Hillary at election time.  And it will be 300+ EV for her.

[Republican Michigander]

Too early to tell. It depends on the opponent.

Trump gets smoked. Bush probably loses. Kasich probably wins.

[Oak Hills]

I still think she's a slight favorite.  I'll peg her chances at 55% for now.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

I think Clinton is the most likely of anyone from either side to win the general election, but I think her chances of surpassing both the primary and the general are now (slightly) less than 50%.  Two months ago, I would've pegged the probability of both events occurring at 75-85%.  I still think she'd be a reasonably clear favorite in the primary and the general, but her advantages in both have slipped (from 95% primary/85% general to about 80% primary/60% general now). 

[Comrade Funk]

Yes. Only because the Republicans seem hell bent on nominating a moron.

[bobloblaw]

Yes. Only because the Republicans seem hell bent on nominating a moron.

Anyone the GOP nominates is a moron according to the left. Even Eisenhower was a moron compared to Stevenson the liberals said.