Chance that 2016 Map is Same as 2012

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This has never happened before, but 2016 is looking pretty similar to 2012 when it comes to the probable results (no landslide, etc.).

I say 15-20%.

Discuss

[ElectionsGuy]

Not high (voted 1-5%). Colorado and Iowa already look pretty vulnerable to a flip, and Florida is always ready for a flip.

[TDAS04]

The electoral map is increasingly polarized.  If the Democrat wins by roughly the same popular vote margin as in 2012, I'd say there's a good chance, though that may not happen.  I voted 25-30%.  If the Democrat wins by about 6 points nationally, I think it will be the same except for North Carolina.  If the Democrat wins by 2-3, it will be mostly the same except for Florida and a state such as Ohio, Colorado, or Iowa.

[Figueira]

5-10%.

However, I'd say the 2012 map has a higher chance than almost any other given map.

[muon2]

Suppose we take a mathematical look at this. Each state has a PVI, and it is generally safe to say that once a party has a lead of more than twice a state's PVI then the state will be favored to flip against the PVI lean.

For example NC is an R+3 state. In 2008 Obama led McCain by 7.2% and NC went for Obama by less than 0.3%. In 2012 Obama beat Romney by 3.9% but lost NC by 2.0%. Somewhere around 6% is the tipping point for NC, and it can vary a little due to local factors, perhaps more if a candidate had a particular tie to the state.

In 2012 with a 4% lead, an R+2 state would be expected to be at the tipping point. Indeed FL is R+2 and Obama won by less than a percent of the vote. NC (R+3) and OH (R+1) are the only states within one PVI point of FL. So the good news for a repeat is that if the vote is the margin as 2012 there's really only FL to worry about. If I put a spread of 1% to keep things in the tossup category I would need the vote to be between a 3% to 5% to have only FL in play and it is 50% likely to repeat for the Dems.

In the last 6 elections the Dems lead has ranged from 8.5% down to -2.5% or a span of 11%. If I go back further the spread goes way up and the odds of a repeat go way down so I'll be kind and limit to 1992 forward. My 2% range is 18% of the total range and FL is 50% likely to be Dem in that range, so I would place the generous probability at 9%.

If I go back to 1960 (50 states), I pick up the possibilities for landslides in either direction. The range climbs to 40.8% (+22.6% to -18.2%) and though it's not a linear distribution I'll use it as such to set a lower bound. In this case the chance of a duplicate map is 2.5% or odds of about 40 to 1.

There are a lot of other factors like shifting demographics acting differently in the states as well as home state effects for candidates. Based on that I'm predicting a result on the low end 1-5% chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL; OH and Va flips; leaving CO, NV; Pa as the bellweathers; like Cook PVI shows.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Unlikely, but possible if the Democrat wins by 4 points nationally.  I just think the national popular vote will be between a 1-point Democratic edge and a 3-point Republican one.  If it's close, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado will flip, leaving Pennsylvania and Virginia as bellweathers trending in opposite directions (the GOP needs only 1 of the 2).

[windjammer]

Did it ever happen in the past?

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Did it ever happen in the past?

Nah

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Something like 4%

[°Leprechaun]

5-10% Definitely a possibility; certainly more likely than a 269-269  would be

However, predictions will be very difficult until we know who the nominees of each party will be.
I could see this happening in a Bush-Clinton election which is a possibility but not one that I would predict at this time.

[°Leprechaun]

Also, this could happen if the overall numbers are close, but it is more likely that the election will be either a little closer or that the Democrat will do better than Obama did in 2012.
There is also the possibility that the Republican could win given the uncertainty of everything.

[NeverAgain]

Misvoted, but I say 10-15%. I really think that Obama States will flip pretty easily if the GOP puts up Bush, Rubio, Kasich. But I don't think it's too unlikely as if Hillary is the nominee, (not likely) she would probably have the organization to fight in those states. But if Bern is Dem Nominee... 538 Bern-slide!

[bobloblaw]

This has never happened before, but 2016 is looking pretty similar to 2012 when it comes to the probable results (no landslide, etc.).

I say 15-20%.

Discuss

Except Hillary is polling 3-5 or more points under what Obama got in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It wont be; COOK PVI shows 272-266 electors. There has to be better GDP output than 2.4 percent growth; more like 3.5 in order to be a wave. But, if the GOP nominee is definitely Trump and not Jeb, then Hilary can definitely win Va and OH and FL.

Actually;  except for the disasterous setbacks in Senate; we are where we were in 2014; CO being bellweather, while OH was red Va almost turning red while Gov Hickenlooper and Udall in tight races.

[davidredmond14ohio]

70%

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The average looks like about 20 right now, maybe a little more.

[DS0816]

Did it ever happen in the past?

Nah

Correct.

I've mentioned this numerous times.

We have not yet an electoral map, from one election, get duplicated.

[bobloblaw]

It wont be; COOK PVI shows 272-266 electors. There has to be better GDP output than 2.4 percent growth; more like 3.5 in order to be a wave. But, if the GOP nominee is definitely Trump and not Jeb, then Hilary can definitely win Va and OH and FL.

Actually;  except for the disasterous setbacks in Senate; we are where we were in 2014; CO being bellweather, while OH was red Va almost turning red while Gov Hickenlooper and Udall in tight races.

it is amazing that you liberals think Jeb is the best candidate. He is probably among the worst

[°Leprechaun]

For the identical map scenario to occur, Clinton (or Sanders.. etc) would have to win Florida and lose NC. How would that happen if Rubio or Bush win the R. nomination? Could they lose Florida in a close election? Are they unpopular there? Or is Florida trending more in a Democratic direction  than in previous elections. It is certainly a must win state for Republicans and will be one of the biggest prizes.

[°Leprechaun]

It wont be; COOK PVI shows 272-266 electors. There has to be better GDP output than 2.4 percent growth; more like 3.5 in order to be a wave. But, if the GOP nominee is definitely Trump and not Jeb, then Hilary can definitely win Va and OH and FL.

Actually;  except for the disasterous setbacks in Senate; we are where we were in 2014; CO being bellweather, while OH was red Va almost turning red while Gov Hickenlooper and Udall in tight races.

it is amazing that you liberals think Jeb is the best candidate. He is probably among the worst

Hopefully most Republican voters agree with you. If he beats Clinton in the general, it would be as much because of her than because of him. She may be popular with some Democrats, but they overestimate her. The same way some liberals overestimate Bush. Do we really want a repeat of 1992?

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For the identical map scenario to occur, Clinton (or Sanders.. etc) would have to win Florida and lose NC. How would that happen if Rubio or Bush win the R. nomination? Could they lose Florida in a close election? Are they unpopular there? Or is Florida trending more in a Democratic direction  than in previous elections. It is certainly a must win state for Republicans and will be one of the biggest prizes.

Even Bush and Rubio are more likely to win NC than FL, TBH. I don't think the favorite son effect is that strong there.

[Figueira]

It wont be; COOK PVI shows 272-266 electors. There has to be better GDP output than 2.4 percent growth; more like 3.5 in order to be a wave. But, if the GOP nominee is definitely Trump and not Jeb, then Hilary can definitely win Va and OH and FL.

Actually;  except for the disasterous setbacks in Senate; we are where we were in 2014; CO being bellweather, while OH was red Va almost turning red while Gov Hickenlooper and Udall in tight races.

it is amazing that you liberals think Jeb is the best candidate. He is probably among the worst

I'm a "liberal" for your purposes, and I agree with you. He's better than Trump though.

[Lord of the Dome]

The big issue for me here is Florida. I can see all the other states going the same way (even though I think Iowa, Ohio and Colorado are all a bit wobbly I'd still rate them 50-50 this far out) but Florida was so close in 2012 and I would think that the political circumstances would be far more favourable to the Republicans there this coming cycle.

[Crumpets]

The big issue for me here is Florida. I can see all the other states going the same way (even though I think Iowa, Ohio and Colorado are all a bit wobbly I'd still rate them 50-50 this far out) but Florida was so close in 2012 and I would think that the political circumstances would be far more favourable to the Republicans there this coming cycle.

Yes, but I wouldn't discount the huge influx of Puerto Ricans into Florida right now. If anybody but Bush or Rubio is the nominee, I can see it swinging Democratic.