Ipsos/Reuters Polls (through DNC week): Clinton +6 (tied 4-way)
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  Ipsos/Reuters Polls (through DNC week): Clinton +6 (tied 4-way)
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Author Topic: Ipsos/Reuters Polls (through DNC week): Clinton +6 (tied 4-way)  (Read 3012 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #25 on: July 29, 2016, 04:26:32 PM »

According to Nate Silver

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/759104860147122183

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What the hell? Angry
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Wells
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« Reply #26 on: July 29, 2016, 04:35:07 PM »

I'm going to say this is a junk poll.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: July 29, 2016, 06:29:28 PM »

OK, now Reuters says Clinton is actually up by 6 (2-way, LV)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1092M5

They really need to get their s--t together.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #28 on: July 29, 2016, 06:31:50 PM »

OK, now Reuters says Clinton is actually up by 6 (2-way, LV)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1092M5

They really need to get their s--t together.
Well that solves the divergence between 2-way and 4-way.. per the link... Two separate polls.

Why would they have two DIFFERENT samples?

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Maxwell
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« Reply #29 on: July 29, 2016, 06:32:11 PM »

Also Trump gained when there was more options. Literally makes no sense.

Reuters is never not gutter trash, even when I like their results.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: July 29, 2016, 06:40:58 PM »

I can only assume that their 2-way and 4-way polls have been two completely separate polls all along. I have changed the OP post to reflect that these are two polls and changed the title to reflect it is 'polls' and not 'poll'. We should just keep this in mind as there are new Reuters polls released in the future. Unlike other polls, you can't really compare the 2-way and 4-way and draw direct conclusions about which candidate is losing votes to the 3rd parties more or less. 
 
 
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #31 on: July 29, 2016, 06:49:44 PM »

OK, now Reuters says Clinton is actually up by 6 (2-way, LV)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1092M5

They really need to get their s--t together.
Well that solves the divergence between 2-way and 4-way.. per the link... Two separate polls.

Why would they have two DIFFERENT samples?

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They probably think, that othervice it might affect the outcome?

If one first chooses X in head-to-head question, one might choose X in 4-way with higher probability than, if there was 4-way question only. Something like this :/
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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #32 on: July 29, 2016, 08:14:29 PM »

Could we please regulate all the weekly tracking polls into one thread? K thanks.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2016, 09:36:17 PM »

OK, now Reuters says Clinton is actually up by 6 (2-way, LV)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1092M5

They really need to get their s--t together.
Well that solves the divergence between 2-way and 4-way.. per the link... Two separate polls.

Why would they have two DIFFERENT samples?

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They probably think, that othervice it might affect the outcome?

If one first chooses X in head-to-head question, one might choose X in 4-way with higher probability than, if there was 4-way question only. Something like this :/
Kudos on figuring that out before Reuters decided to be candid about what they are doing.

I still don't get why you'd want a different poll for the different question. You literally get to basically see the MOE at play with these two different polls more or less.

Most pollsters wouldn't do this because it's a waste of money, for starters.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: July 31, 2016, 02:27:37 AM »

I know Atlasians are desperate for polls, but there's no need to resort to believing junk like Reuters or the LA Times poll that doesn't even have a random sample (basically rule #1 for polling.) Just chill out and wait. I'm sure there will be a deluge of data starting next week.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2016, 01:17:04 PM »

This explains what happened to the methodology of the Reuters poll and how the numbers changed retroactively.

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The source is what it is to you red avatars, but Caddell is widely respected on both side of the aisle when it comes to polling.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/30/exclusive-pat-caddell-blasts-reuters-back-rigging-polls-to-show-clinton-winning/
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heatcharger
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« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2016, 01:23:11 PM »

lol breitbart
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #37 on: July 31, 2016, 01:23:51 PM »

Why would they release a poll showing Trump in the lead then?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #38 on: July 31, 2016, 01:26:39 PM »

Why would they release a poll showing Trump in the lead then?
None of us in the original Reuters thread on polling could figure out why they would do what they did midstream. Changing the methodology in the middle of the two convention weeks especially was very odd. You couldn't accurately measure an apples-to-apples bounce.

And as far as Brietbart goes, it is what it is. It was Caddell's comments that matter here. I believe he was Carter's pollster.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #39 on: July 31, 2016, 01:36:57 PM »

Reuters is trash, but so is Caddell.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #40 on: July 31, 2016, 01:43:18 PM »

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #41 on: July 31, 2016, 01:49:51 PM »

Seriously?, plenty of us red avatars have rightfully called out Reuters for the trash that it is.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #42 on: July 31, 2016, 01:58:17 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2016, 02:07:21 PM by Seriously? »

Seriously?, plenty of us red avatars have rightfully called out Reuters for the trash that it is.
I am well aware. It is what it is with that. This was originally posted in the 2016 election thread, but moved here.

The reason I posted the original article was that it explained what Reuters did to give color as to why the results got screwey, which wasn't Kosher. And trust me, I'd be saying the same exact thing if a pollster did this and put Trump in the lead.

With that said, I know what the opinion of most red avatars on here is about Brietbart, so I was being preemptive. Caddell is no dummy when it comes to polling.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #43 on: July 31, 2016, 05:02:08 PM »

This explains what happened to the methodology of the Reuters poll and how the numbers changed retroactively.

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The source is what it is to you red avatars, but Caddell is widely respected on both side of the aisle when it comes to polling.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/30/exclusive-pat-caddell-blasts-reuters-back-rigging-polls-to-show-clinton-winning/

Lol no he's not. He's the very definition of irrelevant has been.
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