If Trump runs as an independent...
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  If Trump runs as an independent...
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Author Topic: If Trump runs as an independent...  (Read 734 times)
Kyle J. Costello
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« on: August 26, 2015, 03:15:15 PM »

In 1920, Republican Warren Harding exceeded Democrat Cox's votes by a record-setting 26 percent margin.
Do you think Clinton could break that record in case Trump runs as an independent?
Is it even possible that the Dems win States like Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, or Alabama through the kindness of Trump?
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Kyle J. Costello
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2015, 03:19:02 PM »

Who would he choose as his running mate?
In which states would he campaign?
And are there any states where he could exceed Bush or Clinton, or even both?
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Likely Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2015, 03:23:10 PM »

MOD TALK: Kyle you started two topics essentially about the same thing so I merged them....and welcome to the Forum
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madelka
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2015, 05:19:11 PM »



Clinton: 498 electoral votes   Bush: 35 electoral votes  Trump: 5 electoral votes
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Kyle J. Costello
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2015, 07:19:03 PM »

Would Clinton break Harding's record in that scenario?
Which states would Trump visit?
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2015, 07:37:59 PM »

Trump would visit all 50 states like a real American, instead of catering to a bunch of entitled losers in the swing states.
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AelroseB
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2015, 07:38:51 PM »

Trump's peak:


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AelroseB
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2015, 07:39:58 PM »

Also, Ron Paul stumps for Trump in the South.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2015, 07:42:29 PM »

Here's a map I made a while back for a Clinton-46, Bush-30, Trump-20 election:

Had some time, so I made a Clinton 46, Bush 30, Trump 20 map based on the 2012 results. On this map, Trump gets 72% of his support from Romney voters and 28% from Obama voters:



Clinton/Heinrich 46% 372 EV
Bush/Martinez 30% 117 EV
Trump/Ventura 20% 49 EV

This is based on a Trump vote distribution something like this:


30% - Well below average (~5%)
40% - Below average (~15%)
50% - Above average (~25%)
60% - Well above average (~35)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2015, 08:28:51 PM »

Agreed on Arizona being one of his best states, but I think he'd have a better chance at winning EV in Appalachia than in the Deep South or Texas (Texas R's are unusually pro-immigrant all things considered).  Conservadems are one of his strongest demographics.  He would throw GA and possibly MS to the Dem.  I think this is Trump's 3rd party ceiling:





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