Candidate likeliest to win in the 2016 Republican nomination?

[NeverAgain]

We're 11 1/2 months out, so at this point who do you think has the best shot?

[Horsemask]

Can't believe I'm saying it, but I guess Donald Trump

[Mehmentum]

Can't believe I'm saying it, but I guess Donald Trump

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Sadly Donald Trump...

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I give up. Honestly, I have no clue anymore. Trump is doing quite well, but I'm still not sure about his chances.

[°Leprechaun]

Rubio, Bush, Walker, and Carson probably have the best shot. Trump maybe, but I tend to think that over time his support will decline and that there are more anti-Trump Republican voters than pro-Trump voters. I have no idea. Maybe Kasich, but most of the others probably have little chance.
 It is definitely to soon to know. I also don't think Carson or Trump could beat Clinton. I don't know who could beat Sanders, because most the polls assume Clinton will be the nominee, so there is little to go on.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I was saying Rubio for about 4 months, but I think I can officially say Trump now without being biased. Glad I ironically bought PredictIt shares for him!

[Rockefeller GOP]

Can't believe I'm saying it, but I guess Donald Trump

[Figueira]

Rubio. But before I vote, why are people suddenly saying Trump now?

[Mehmentum]

Rubio. But before I vote, why are people suddenly saying Trump now?

A series of very good polls for him.

Monmouth has him at 30% in SC, PPP has him at 35% in NH, and Gravis has him at 40% nationally.

[°Leprechaun]

Rubio, Kasich, Bush and Walker also come from important swing states which could help in them in the general but won't help them that much in the primaries. Carson may help with southern states in the general although I don't see him winning if he gets the nomination because his views are not mainstream enough.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Rubio. But before I vote, why are people suddenly saying Trump now?

Trump is running the show now. By threatening to run as an independent, he has the effective power to decide who will be the next president. If he wins the nomination, he chooses himself. If he doesn't, he chooses Clinton.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

As I have been saying for months, a complete Bush-Walker-Rubio tossup.  The next tier would be Fiorina, Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.

[Figueira]

Meh, I'll still go with Rubio. But Trump shockingly has a decent chance.

[Suburbia]

Rubio as of now. Bush seems uninspiring.

[Craigo]

Rubio. But before I vote, why are people suddenly saying Trump now?

Trump is running the show now. By threatening to run as an independent, he has the effective power to decide who will be the next president. If he wins the nomination, he chooses himself. If he doesn't, he chooses Clinton.

If he chooses either, he elects a Dem.

Still Bush, Walker, or Rubio, with Trump a distant fourth.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump will not win the nomination. I'm not going after the polls, I'm going after my instinct and past precedent of Republican nominations. There's usually a strain of anti-establishment or outsider want in the party in the first few months. But I admit, its extremely strong this time, so I think the party will nominate a compromise candidate, like Walker or Rubio, but won't nominate 100% establishment butt buddies like Kasich or Bush. I voted Walker, but if his campaign keeps going in the direction its going now my vote will soon be Rubio.

[dudeabides]

[Higgs]

Paul

I wish, sadly his numbers aren't the same as they were in 2013.

Realistically I think the establishment eventually coalesces around one candidate to be the anti Trump. I don't see Jeb making it very far so I see the go to guy as Rubio.

[DonaldTrumpForLife]

Trump has already won. He'll win easily and win the general

TRUMP 2016!!! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!!!!!!!

[JMT]

I still think it'll be Walker. He can raise a ton of money and is liked by both the establishment and tea party voters. Walker was far ahead in Iowa before Donald Trump came out of nowhere to be in the lead, and I truly think likely voters will not vote for Donald Trump in the end despite his popularity now. I think Walker could still pull off an Iowa win, have a decent showing in NH, and ride that momentum to receive the nomination.

[pho]

You're in denial if still believe the groundswell for Trump is just a passing fancy of an anxious disaffecteds. Trump is leading everywhere, by Clintonesque margins in some polls—he's the legitimate front runner.

[Craigo]

I still think it'll be Walker. He can raise a ton of money and is liked by both the establishment and tea party voters. Walker was far ahead in Iowa before Donald Trump came out of nowhere to be in the lead, and I truly think likely voters will not vote for Donald Trump in the end despite his popularity now. I think Walker could still pull off an Iowa win, have a decent showing in NH, and ride that momentum to receive the nomination.

I'd be higher on Walker if his campaigning skills were sharper. You can get away with being a bit of a dud in general elections where the divisions are much more sharply drawn, or in primaries if you have a massive cash and organizational edge. Neither applies here. Same goes Bush, who if anything has been even worse. These two are squandering their built-in advantages. Still, they both have a better shot than anyone else.

[JMT]

I understand Trump is leading by large margins just about everywhere at the moment. I'm not denying he's currently the front runner, he is. But its still only August. In the last presidential election, Rick Perry was the frontrunner in August and led Romney just about everywhere, and he clearly imploded. Sure, Trump has more support than Perry did, but the question asked which candidate is the likeliest to win the nomination. And I think once states actually start voting, it'll end up being Scott Walker.

[pho]

I still think it'll be Walker. He can raise a ton of money and is liked by both the establishment and tea party voters. Walker was far ahead in Iowa before Donald Trump came out of nowhere to be in the lead, and I truly think likely voters will not vote for Donald Trump in the end despite his popularity now. I think Walker could still pull off an Iowa win, have a decent showing in NH, and ride that momentum to receive the nomination.

If Walker can raise a ton of money, then why hasn't he? The most recent estimate I saw was $26 million, which is peanuts compared to what Bush is raising and less even than Cruz.

Walkers campaign is nosediving and his desperation is bubbling to the surface, hence his full 360 on immigration this week. A savvier pol could turn it around, but Walker isn't ready for prime time and it shows.