Ohio and Pennsylvania

[Bismarck]

What are the chances that Pennsylvania votes to the right of Ohio? General election and senatorial polls seem to show republicans doing better in Pennsylvania. Is this going to continue or will the states eventually fall back into line?

[TDAS04]

Very unlikely in the next presidential election.  Pennsylvania has consistently voted (though usually slightly) to the left of Ohio going back to 1952, and both states are pretty static.  The Democratic trend in greater Philly should outweigh the GOP trend in western PA.  I'm not sure what demographic trends favor Democrats in Ohio.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably not, but I could see PA voting to the right of VA in 2016.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Long term, both are Lean R states, making up for states like VA going the other way.  Here would be my rough ranking of swing states

MOST GOP:
(North Carolina)- if you even count it as a swing state
Florida
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
Pennsylvania --BELLWETHER STATE---
Virginia
Wisconsin
Michigan
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Maine's 2nd
Nevada
MOST DEM

[Likely Voter]

Pennsylvania is a big question mark right now. It is hard to really compare its trend vs Ohio in the last two cycles because it didnt get nearly the amount of attention from either side as Ohio. Also there is a chance that Obama was just a bad fit for the state. So it may be trending R and becoming more of a tipping point state, or it could end up snapping back to be more akin to Michigan Wisconsin (a state that could go GOP in a wave). 

That being said, I don't see it going to the right of Ohio any time soon if ever.

Regardless the GOP should take it seriously and they should have already started voter registration and other pre-planning in PA to prep for the general. They can't half-ass it like Romney did.  If it truly is trending R it is a game changer in terms of electoral strategy.

[Clark Kent]

Based on where they were relative to the nation as a whole in 2012, and the trend from 2008-2012, I do expect Pennsylvania to be slightly more Republican than Ohio in 2016. It should be pretty much exactly where Virginia was in 2012, while Virginia itself should be more Democratic.

[TJ in Oregon]

I doubt it will be to the right of Ohio because the states are too similar for their voting to diverge much differently. Whatever Republican tactics will make inroads in PA will also help them in OH. PA has been trending toward the Republicans, and they really ought to seriously contest it from the start, but it will very likely vote about 2 points more Democratic than Ohio (which was the difference in 2012) because PA's Democratic nodes (mostly Philly) are a little more potent than Ohio's. With that sort of margin, PA is in play if the Republican manages to win Ohio by about 2 points or more. For comparison, Bush won Ohio in 2004 by 2% but at that point PA was 4% more Democratic than Ohio as they had not yet imploded in SWPA.

[Slander and/or Libel]

If you look at Pennsylvania over the last 50 years, you find that there has not been one election in which they did not vote more Democratic than the nation at large.

What you tend to find, I believe, is that PA votes slightly more Republican when there's a Democratic incumbent in office, and slightly more Democratic when a Republican is in office, but all from a pretty solid inelastic base of voting Democratic in open races.

[Slander and/or Libel]

In fact, there are all sorts of times over the past 50 years where you could point to Pennsylvania's trend from one election to the next, extrapolate it, and come up with a completely incorrect predictions for what actually happened.

1972 - 1976: In 1972, the Democratic 2 Party national share was 38.21, and in PA it was 39.83, for a PVI of approximately D+1.62. In 1976, the Democratic 2 Party national share was 51.06, versus 51.36 for PA, for a PVI of approximately D+0.3. Clearly in 1980 we're headed for a PVI of something like R+1, right? Wrong. 1980 had a PVI of D+1.4.

Same thing for 1992-1996.
1992 PVI: D+2.1.
1996 PVI: D+0.4.
Predicted 2000 PVI: R+1.3.
Actual 2000 PVI: D+1.9.

Where we do see broad trends is from 1996 through 2004, and from 2004 through 2012. 1996 saw a Democratic incumbent running, followed by an open election, followed by a Republican incumbent. We saw respective PVIs of D+0.4, D+1.9 and D+2.5.

2004 saw a Republican incumbent, followed by an open election, followed by a Democratic incumbent. We saw respective PVIs of D+2.5, D+1.5, D+0.8.

Seems to me the trends are reasonably clear. In recent years (the last 20 or so), PA tends to vote more Democratic than the nation in general, with a bump for the challenger when an incumbent is in office.

[TDAS04]

If you look at Pennsylvania over the last 50 years, you find that there has not been one election in which they did not vote more Democratic than the nation at large.

What you tend to find, I believe, is that PA votes slightly more Republican when there's a Democratic incumbent in office, and slightly more Democratic when a Republican is in office, but all from a pretty solid inelastic base of voting Democratic in open races.

And Ohio has been more Republican than the nation at large going back to the 1920s, with a couple of exceptions.

[bobloblaw]

in PA Toomey will win easily and in OH Portman might lose. Plus the PA Dem AG is headed to prison.

[DS0816]

If you look at Pennsylvania over the last 50 years, you find that there has not been one election in which they did not vote more Democratic than the nation at large.

It was after the 1940s that Pennsylvania developed and established its Democratic tilt.

[Mr. Illini]

Long term, both are Lean R states, making up for states like VA going the other way.  Here would be my rough ranking of swing states

MOST GOP:
(North Carolina)- if you even count it as a swing state
Florida
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
Pennsylvania --BELLWETHER STATE---
Virginia
Wisconsin
Michigan
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Maine's 2nd
Nevada
MOST DEM

>implies North Carolina is not a swing state
>considers Michigan, Minnesota and ME-2 to be swing EVs

[Figueira]

Long term, both are Lean R states, making up for states like VA going the other way.  Here would be my rough ranking of swing states

MOST GOP:
(North Carolina)- if you even count it as a swing state
Florida
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
Pennsylvania --BELLWETHER STATE---
Virginia
Wisconsin
Michigan
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Maine's 2nd
Nevada
MOST DEM

>implies North Carolina is not a swing state
>considers Michigan, Minnesota and ME-2 to be swing EVs

He's probably basing it on PVI, but using PVI as the be-all end-all of understanding US politics is pretty simplistic.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton will win big in OH and Pa as the economy and big Labor get out the vote in Columbus and Pittsburgh. As both can get Hilary along with NV & NM to 270.