weixiaobao
Jr. Member
Posts: 711
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« on: August 25, 2015, 05:42:02 AM » |
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Finally reached 20 posts for link.
For decades, the warlords of the New World each carved out a corner and founded their own kingdoms. That is until the rise of the conqueror, Trump, who united most under his banner.
*I didn't include most polls that are really old like in 2013 and leaving out many major candidates. The color scheme meant if something is more recent or something is older. There are states, I color in because they did well even after Trump entered the scene like Walker in Minnesota.
*For the empire of Trump, I didn't include out of date polls. Alaska had a recent strawpoll. So I color it pink. In 2012, when Perry, Cain, and Gingrich were the front runner, they usually swept the entire map (of course, Romney always had MA and NH).
The rise of Trump
The events are explanations for the changes in the polls. Most candidates received a boost after they announced. Aug (3) is still a work in process, because there aren't that many new polls after Trump revealed his immigration plan. I have a list of events separately. It is still a work in process. Since I kind of pay attention to the race late, if anybody remember any game changing events, please listed down below.
Not to scale.
Pre vs Post Debate
Biggest movers are definitely Fiorina and Carson. Biggest losers seemed to be Walker and Bush. Trump retained his lead.
How do they do in the states. The July/Aug is for pre Debate. I didn't quite arrange the states by regions, but close to it.
Ignore the specific numbers since they from various different polls. But the general trend of the colors do tell a story. N is for national polls. The percentage to the right side is the average of the data for the states collected during that period of time. Useful to compare to the national polls though since there is a lot of states missing and aren't poll. The numbers can be much higher or lower.
Threw in Rand Paul since this forum seem to fancy Rand Paul. And he isn't doing all that well right now.
The same data, but this time the color codes change. Yellow meant first place + higher than 20%. Orange meant either tie for first or first place but under 20%. Different other colors for 2nd and 3rd place. Below 10% is automatically gray (with the exception of the national polls).
And that is it for now.
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