WI-Marquette: Feingold +5

[RogueBeaver]

47/42.

[Gass3268]

Okay, Johnson is no longer the most vulnerable incumbent Senator. This probably has something to do with the fact that Feingold fell short on his campaign-finance pledge.

No...

This is because it's Wisconsin and unless its a freak year, like 2008, no one wins by more than a couple points.

[MT Treasurer]

Okay, Johnson is no longer the most vulnerable incumbent Senator. This probably has something to do with the fact that Feingold fell short on his campaign-finance pledge.

No...

This is because it's Wisconsin and unless its a freak year, like 2008, no one wins by more than a couple points.

Feingold was ahead by 16 points in April. The race is clearly tightening.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211149.0

[Skye]

Johnson is in a better position.

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[mds32]

Probably because Republicans are coming around and are aligning themselves with Johnson.

Johnson at the very least is going to get the same as Thompson had in '12. Likely closer since he is an incumbent Senator.

[Gass3268]

Okay, Johnson is no longer the most vulnerable incumbent Senator. This probably has something to do with the fact that Feingold fell short on his campaign-finance pledge.

No...

This is because it's Wisconsin and unless its a freak year, like 2008, no one wins by more than a couple points.

Feingold was ahead by 16 points in April. The race is clearly tightening.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211149.0

I'm not saying it's not tightening, I'm saying that almost all races in Wisconsin since 2000 (unless you are Herb Kohl or Obama in 08) are within a couple points. I never expected Feingold to blow out Johnson, Wisconsin is too divided for that.

[RFayette]

The 16-point poll was an outlier.  This is consistent with underlying expectations.

[windjammer]

I still consider Feingold as having an advantage.

[ElectionsGuy]

The 16-point poll was an outlier.  This is consistent with underlying expectations.

Yes. I never believed that poll (and nobody else should have either). Its going to be single digits throughout the whole campaign.

But if Feingold doesn't win this in the end, he doesn't deserve to be in politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feingold, should win it, because both Walker and Johnson have very unfavorable approvals. It will be close, just like IL.

[ElectionsGuy]

Iingold, should win it, because both Walker and Johnson have very unfavorable approvals. It will be close, just like IL.

Who the f*** is that?

[/]

'Tis a shame. He should be winning 100-0, obviously.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Assuming a neutral climate, Feingold should win 53-46 or so.

[Bigby]

The GOP should focus on Nevada and Colorado to make up for Wisconsin and Illinois, methinks.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The GOP should focus on Nevada and Colorado to make up for Wisconsin and Illinois, methinks.

This. Somebody needs to get Tipton or Gessler in the Colorado race, now. Even if they don't win, they'd force the dems to spend lots of time and money to win the race.

[Xing]

I never believed that Feingold was up by 16 to begin with. This will almost certainly be a single digit race, but Feingold is clearly favored, for now. Republicans should definitely at least keep an eye on the senate races in Nevada and Colorado, but I have my doubts that they'll be able to win those races, unless they have a very good year, or a lot of luck.

[Xing]

I never believed that Feingold was up by 16 to begin with. This will almost certainly be a single digit race, but Feingold is clearly favored, for now. Republicans should definitely at least keep an eye on the senate races in Nevada and Colorado, but I have my doubts that they'll be able to win those races, unless they have a very good year, or a lot of luck.

I think you're being a bit too optimistic with regard to Nevada. Two of the last three polls have shown Heck ahead by a wide margin (granted, those were suspicious polls) and PPP had him tied with Masto. They can definitely win Nevada, in fact I think it would flip before Ohio.

It's a little early to put a lot of stock in Nevada polls, since both candidates aren't that well-known on the statewide level. Republicans could pick up Nevada, but my hunch is that they won't. The demographics in Nevada are making the state tougher for Republicans to win, which is why Obama won so easily in 2012, despite the economy there being terrible. I'd be extremely surprised if both Nevada and Ohio flipped.