Will He or Won't He? Measuring the Latest Boomlet

[Progressive]

I've been measuring Forum opinion during the Biden boomlets to see if you all think he'll enter. It seems that the "yes" votes have increased steadily since I started asking a month ago. What do you think?

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Probably yes, unfortunately

[Likely Voter]

I still think no. This is very much like Romney's last gasp. Biden didn't want to just fade away, especially with his late son's encouragement to get in. He has always wanted it. He is let it leak out that he is interested to gauge reaction. He wants people to know he is serious. But in the end (like Romney) he will see that he wont get the institutional support and money required to do it.

Of course all that would change in the (extremely unlikely) event it appears Hillary is in actual legal trouble with the email thing.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

That he has done so much to take the pulse of the field and that he has nothing to lose so he can piss off the vindictive Clintons suggests he will drop in.

[Figueira]

Yeah, this seems like a false alarm to me, like the Romney thing back in January. Although the difference is that Biden never announced he was not running, unlike Romney.

[7,052,770]

He needs to, just in case we need a last-minute replacement for Hillary.

He's a much stronger general election candidate than O'Malley.

[Horsemask]

I didn't think he would at first, but as each day passes, I think he'll make a last go of it. There was a rumor being reported in some outlets that he'd run on a promise of only serving a single term which I could see due to his age.

[Pyro]

I sure hope not.

[JMT]

I think he will jump in. People have said that Biden would only preform well if Clinton implodes. But I think we are starting to reach this point of implosion already. The Clinton campaign appears to be changing their answers when questioned about Hillary's emails, and even if she does not end up being in trouble with the law due to her emails, her favorability numbers have declined rapidly due to this whole email thing. To me, it seems like Joe Biden could be the more electable option, which has been highlighted in recent polls. I think favorability numbers are more important than head to head match ups at this stage, and more and more people are seeing Clinton as untrustworthy. People will not want to vote for a candidate they don't trust, especially in a general election. So while Clinton clearly has more establishment support, a stronger campaign, and tons of money, I still think it would be foolish for Democratic voters to dismiss Biden, a sitting vice president with many accomplishments. I hope Biden enters the race, and he has my vote if he does. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Leaning yes. I think its 60/40 that he runs.

[Blair]

Two months ago I'd say no, but I'd say likely now. It's not just rumble based on 1 or 2 sources like with Gore or Romney. Secondly as a VP it makes sense for him to run, add Hillary's email problems, the rise of Sanders and O'Malley falling flat it's clear there's a path

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think he wants to, but I don't think he will.

[Leinad]

He should. This is probably his last chance, and I think Hillary's beatable.

Honestly, it would be good for the Democrats if he does. It would make it more competetive, thus putting Hillary through more of a test than simply Bernie would. And if she does implode--email or otherwise--he'd be there as an obvious break-glass-in-case-of-clintontastrophe candidate--a role he fits better than Sanders, O'Malley, or anyone else already in.

[IronFist]

So it's clear that Biden is going to run for president. Would you support his campaign?
It seems like he has a chance to win since Hillary is losing her ground and Sanders is way too populist. I think that the final battle will be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. For some reason they are pretty similar to each other. I still support Trump but Biden is a very dangerous opponent indeed.

[Mehmentum]

So it's clear that Biden is going to run for president. Would you support his campaign?
It seems like he has a chance to win since Hillary is losing her ground and Sanders is way too populist. I think that the final battle will be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. For some reason they are pretty similar to each other. I still support Trump but Biden is a very dangerous opponent indeed.

I don't think it's clear that he will run.  Back in January everyone was convinced that Romney was going to run again. 

Biden is definitely testing the waters.  By doing all of this, he's seeing how people would react to his candidacy.  Most important is how the establishment is viewing his candidacy.  Biden to peel establishment support away from Hillary for his campaign to be viable.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm assuming Biden '16 is the new Muskie '80 until he actually announces himself.

[Craigo]

His heart says yes, his head says no. His base at this point seems to consists of staffers who are currently updating their resumes, unemployed Democratic political professionals, and national political journalists desperate for a horse race to write about.

He doesn't have the money or the institutional support to win this late in the game, his grassroots base (the people who don't need persuading) appears stuck at 15% max, and his campaign skills aren't going to put him over the top. (See 1988, 2008.) And he knows all this, whether he or his circle want to admit it or not.

[Progressive]

Now I wonder if he won't..