Disturbingly I think Trump could win

[Thunderbird is the word]

He could win by just driving up the racist vote in general, I think that some right-wing voters who weren't too thrilled about McCain and Romney would vote for him and that he could even pick off PA by running up the score in the rural part of the state. It's a scary prospect but seeing the reaction of crowds to him I could almost see it.

[Abraham Reagan]

Yeah, he may drive up the uber-conservative vote, but it would be a reverse 08 or 12 where, instead of conservatives, the moderates stay home in large numbers. So I don't think he could win.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I reported this post for making me stupider.

Honestly I hope this is a really stupid thought.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Yeah, he may drive up the uber-conservative vote, but it would be a reverse 08 or 12 where, instead of conservatives, the moderates stay home in large numbers. So I don't think he could win.

Thing is I think that he doesn't just appeal to uber conservatives. The Tea Party likes him but so do some populist type voters who might previously have been dejected from the political system entirely. Honestly Democrats have themselves to blame to a certain extent for drinking their own kool-aid about the Obama coalition and effectively dismissing the white working class as lumpenprolitariant.

[Abraham Reagan]

Yeah, he may drive up the uber-conservative vote, but it would be a reverse 08 or 12 where, instead of conservatives, the moderates stay home in large numbers. So I don't think he could win.

Thing is I think that he doesn't just appeal to uber conservatives. The Tea Party likes him but so do some populist type voters who might previously have been dejected from the political system entirely. Honestly Democrats have themselves to blame to a certain extent for drinking their own kool-aid about the Obama coalition and effectively dismissing the white working class as lumpenprolitariant.

That may be true, but I still don't think he has broad enough appeal to win moderate Republican suburbanites which make up a large portion of GOP voters. Now, of course that could change, I just don't think it's likely.

[Devils30]

Trump would get absolutely destroyed in metro Philly, like worse than McCain 2008. It's tough to see many 2 time Obama voters going over to Trump. Lets use some common sense, Trump wouldn't go more than 2 days without saying something stupid in the general election.

[OSR stands with Israel]

There is no way trump is winning

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump would get smashed in the general election, maybe even some more moderate Republican safe states will swing Democrat...scary thought.

[dudeabides]

Donald Trump would win Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Idaho, Wyoming, and Oklahoma. North Dakota, Texas, Arizona, West Virginia, Utah and South Carolina would become swing states. He'd lose everything else badly. The Democrats would win a minimum of 37 states, period. They'd be looking at a minimum of 57% of the popular vote.

[Podgy the Bear]

He's not going to win the general--and I would hope that he does not get the Republican nomination.

He is great fodder for the media that is looking to sell product in August 2015--15 months before the presidential election. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

The idea that Trump is a racist is silly. 

The idea that advocating enforcement of our Immigration Laws is racist begs the question as to what degree folks here truly advocate the rule of law.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is a Reform party candidate, vying  for GOP nomination. He isnt a Democrat, but a conservative and will appoint right wing judges to judiciary. He is fooling no one. He is just another conservative running on another title. Not like Ross Perot or Jesse Ventura.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump is a Reform party candidate, vying  for GOP nomination. He isnt a Democrat, but a conservative and will appoint right wing judges to judiciary. He is fooling no one. He is just another conservative running on another title. Not like Ross Perot or Jesse Ventura.

But dudeabides said he was a socialist . . .

But Jeb Bush said he was a Democrat . . .

But the other GOP candidates say he's not a conservative . . .

Trump HAS mobilized the Perot Voter coalition (what's left of them), but he's added to them as well.  This, to me, is a natural event; they have been around forever, but have not always had a candidate to vote for that was a vehicle for their viewpoint.

[/]

I reported this post for making me stupider.

LOL

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think he will win the primary. But he will get demolished in the general.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilary would add NC to her electors in addition to a 2012 map, should Trump win nomination.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hilary would add NC to her electors in addition to a 2012 map, should Trump win nomination.

She'd add Kentucky, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Arizona, Montana, and definitely Alaska. Probably some others, like West Virginia.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hilary would add NC to her electors in addition to a 2012 map, should Trump win nomination.

She'd add Kentucky, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Arizona, Montana, and definitely Alaska. Probably some others, like West Virginia.

No.

Alaska is more likely than the others, actually.

The Dakotas are another likely pickup.

[Mehmentum]

Trump has a very difficult road to winning the general election.

1.) Winning the GOP nomination is very likely to fracture the party.  There are many Republicans who hate him, how will Trump resolve this?

2.) Hispanics will vote overwhelmingly against him and turn out against him.

3.) He constantly says horrible things.  That's fine in a crowded primary, but if he's turning off even a small sliver of the general electorate, he could be boxing himself in.

Now, he does have some positives.  In a 3 way (Clinton/Bush/Trump) match-up, Trump does take about 5% from Clinton vs. a Clinton/Bush match-up.  That means that he does have some crossover appeal.  Its also likely that African American turnout will drop with Obama off the ballot (though this is true regardless of who the nominee is). 

I'm very skeptical that Trump will increase Republican turnout.  There'll be huge turnout from the conservative populists, but that'll be countered by a decrease in turnout from other parts of the GOP coalition.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I think he will win the primary. But he will get demolished in the general.

If Bandit thinks something is going to happen, we can rest assured it won't.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Bandit thinks something is going to happen, we can rest assured it won't.

Yeah, remember in 2006 when I said the Democrats would retake Congress, or 2008 when I said Obama would win Indiana? Wow, is my face red.

Oh, wait...

[MT Treasurer]

If Bandit thinks something is going to happen, we can rest assured it won't.

Yeah, remember in 2006 when I said the Democrats would retake Congress, or 2008 when I said Obama would win Indiana? Wow, is my face red.

Oh, wait...

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&memb_id=468

[Higgs]

If Bandit thinks something is going to happen, we can rest assured it won't.

Yeah, remember in 2006 when I said the Democrats would retake Congress, or 2008 when I said Obama would win Indiana? Wow, is my face red.

Oh, wait...

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&memb_id=468

Lmao, rekt

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Bandit thinks something is going to happen, we can rest assured it won't.

Yeah, remember in 2006 when I said the Democrats would retake Congress, or 2008 when I said Obama would win Indiana? Wow, is my face red.

Oh, wait...

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&memb_id=468

Remember when the media said Bush would win New Jersey and Hawaii?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

March 9: The Monster has escaped from his place of banishment.

March 10: The Corsican Orge has landed at Cape Juan.

March 11: The Tiger has shown himself at Gap. The Troops are advancing on all sides to arrest his progress. He will conclude his miserable adventure by becoming a wanderer among the mountains.

March 12 The Monster has actually advanced as far as Grenoble.

March 13: The Tyrant is now at Lyon. Fear and Terror seized all at his appearance.

March 18: The Usurper has ventured to approach to within 60 hours’ march of the capital.

March 19: Bonaparte is advancing by forced marches, but it is impossible he can reach Paris.

March 20: Napoleon will arrive under the walls of Paris tomorrow.

March 21: The Emperor Napoleon is at Fontainebleau.

March 22: This evening His Majesty the Emperor made his public entry and arrived at the Tuileries. Nothing can exceed the universal joy.