How would Biden fare against the GOP challengers?
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  How would Biden fare against the GOP challengers?
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Author Topic: How would Biden fare against the GOP challengers?  (Read 1143 times)
YaBoyNY
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« on: August 22, 2015, 05:46:01 PM »

So, let's assume Biden advances to the general election after having defeated Hillary in the primaries. How would he fare against each of the potential Republican nominees?

Feel free to choose whatever VP you believe would fit and provide maps.
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NHI
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2015, 05:47:07 PM »

It all depends on the economy and if Biden is able to run a gaffe free campaign.
I would not underestimate him as the Democrat's candidate, I could see him edging out Bush and Walker, while losing to Rubio and Kasich.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2015, 06:22:32 PM »

He'd do worse than Hillary Clinton in a world where the email scandal blows over.  He'd also probably do worse than someone like Gillibrand or Kaine, who are newer and relatively unblemished.

However, he'd do better than a scandal plagued Clinton and he'd do much better than Bernie Sanders, so he's an acceptable plan B.

He's authentic, and likable enough.  His main problem is his very well documented record of gaffes.  Perhaps he could pull a page out of Trump's book and roll with it?  Additionally, his fate will be very much tied to Obama performance over the next year (any nominee would be to some extent, but Biden more so than others).  This could be a blessing or a curse, its too soon to say for sure.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2015, 06:47:07 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2015, 07:01:54 PM by Kingpoleon »


278 - 260
John Kasich(R-OH)/Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 50.1%
Joe Biden(D-DE)/Bill DeBlasio(D-NY) - 49.0%

Other: 0.8%

Pennsylvania, ME-2, and Nevada have margins of 0.15%, 0.41%, and 0.96%, respectively, from going over. Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire all had margins under 2.5% too. While generally a known campaign, Pennsylvania is the biggest surprise for most. DeBlasio managed to help Biden with turnout, and the cordial but passionate debate between Kasich and Biden goes over well. It has a sharp contrast to Ernst's "I may not be from the biggest city, but I know my way around town." DeBlasio's reply of, "I may be from a city, but even I know that wasn't very ladylike." doesn't help him much. The debate between the two is very heated and shows strong contrast, but the end shows great mutual respect from each side.

______________________________________________________

I probably should have made New Mexico under 50%, if only because of Johnson. Oh well - presume James Gray, or Wayne Root, or some other candidate takes it instead, please.


276 - 262
Joe Biden(D-DE)/Martin Heinrich(D-NM) - 50.9%
Marco Rubio*(R-FL)/Cory Gardner(R-CO) - 48.0%

Other: 1.1%

*Rubio works well with Gardner. Bush would likely choose Gardner, or maybe Thune, as well. A Northerner or Rust Belt - say, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Scott Walker - would probably choose Tim Scott or Pat McCory.

Huckabee, Jindal, or Cruz, the generic GOP Southerners, would likely choose between Gardner, Ayotte, Santorum, or Jeff Flake. All of them are popular enough with the base. However, I think all of them would lose Ohio. Biden, who doesn't have much appeal in Florida, could easily win other swing states such as Indiana and Missouri against them. He probably wouldn't win North Carolina and Florida, though. Huckabee or Cruz would be very good at turnout there, making up for Romney's independent voters in the South.


324 - 214
Joe Biden(D-DE)/Claire McCaskill(D-MO) - 51.4%
Mike Huckabee(R-AR)/Jeff Flake(R-AZ) - 46.9%
Other: 1.7%

+0.3% swing to Democratic.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2015, 08:07:17 PM »

Unfortunately, he would probably be tied too much to Obama.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2015, 08:17:23 PM »

Considering that he can't control his mouth, his chances wouldn't be good. That is why Republicans want to run against him, one stupid gaffe and he's done.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2015, 09:06:31 PM »

Biden would probably be somewhere between Hillary Clinton pre-scandals and Bernie Sanders.

He wouldn't terrify voters, even if he makes major gaffes. But it's unlikely that there would be major excitement for him, partly due to demographics (he's an old white guy) and partly due to the sense that he doesn't have a particulalry appealing grand vision.

In a poor cycle for the party he could lose in the biggest electoral vote landslide since 1988. In a really good cycle, he could keep Obama's states. In a neutral year, I think he'll lose because history tends to favor the party out of power in these open elections.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2015, 10:16:06 PM »

Biden/Kaine (264 EV) vs. Rubio/Kasich (274 EV):



Close states:

Virginia: Biden +0.1
Nevada: Rubio +0.9
Pensylvania: Biden +1.0
New Hampshire: Biden +1.7

Biden/Kaine (251 EV) vs. Bush/Rubio (287 EV):



Close states:

Virginia: Bush +0.2
Colorado: Bush +0.9
Nevada: Bush +1.2
Pennsylvania: Biden +2.0
How does Bush-Rubio carry Florida's electoral votes?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2015, 01:55:19 AM »

Unfortunately, he would probably be tied too much to Obama.

You mean he would be tied to a fairly popular President who won re-election convincingly against a horde of people eager to cut him off at every single opportunity given? Sounds pretty good to me. If I were a Democrat running for President I would take every opportunity to draw myself close to Obama.
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