278 - 260
John Kasich(R-OH)/Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 50.1%
Joe Biden(D-DE)/Bill DeBlasio(D-NY) - 49.0%Other: 0.8%
Pennsylvania, ME-2, and Nevada have margins of 0.15%, 0.41%, and 0.96%, respectively, from going over. Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire all had margins under 2.5% too. While generally a known campaign, Pennsylvania is the biggest surprise for most. DeBlasio managed to help Biden with turnout, and the cordial but passionate debate between Kasich and Biden goes over well. It has a sharp contrast to Ernst's "I may not be from the biggest city, but I know my way around town." DeBlasio's reply of, "I may be from a city, but even I know that wasn't very ladylike." doesn't help him much. The debate between the two is very heated and shows strong contrast, but the end shows great mutual respect from each side.
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I probably should have made New Mexico under 50%, if only because of Johnson. Oh well - presume James Gray, or Wayne Root, or some other candidate takes it instead, please.
276 - 262
Joe Biden(D-DE)/Martin Heinrich(D-NM) - 50.9%
Marco Rubio*(R-FL)/Cory Gardner(R-CO) - 48.0%Other: 1.1%
*Rubio works well with Gardner. Bush would likely choose Gardner, or maybe Thune, as well. A Northerner or Rust Belt - say, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Scott Walker - would probably choose Tim Scott or Pat McCory.
Huckabee, Jindal, or Cruz, the generic GOP Southerners, would likely choose between Gardner, Ayotte, Santorum, or Jeff Flake. All of them are popular enough with the base. However, I think all of them would lose Ohio. Biden, who doesn't have much appeal in Florida, could easily win other swing states such as Indiana and Missouri against them. He probably wouldn't win North Carolina and Florida, though. Huckabee or Cruz would be very good at turnout there, making up for Romney's independent voters in the South.
324 - 214
Joe Biden(D-DE)/Claire McCaskill(D-MO) - 51.4%
Mike Huckabee(R-AR)/Jeff Flake(R-AZ) - 46.9%
Other: 1.7%
+0.3% swing to Democratic.