Can Blair be toppled?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For a leadership election to be forced, 20% of the PLP (71 M.P's) have to support a leadership election.

Are there 71 M.P's that might do so? I have in front of me an alphabetical list of Labour M.P's. A quick scan of the list shows that there are easily over 71 M.P's who might do it.

I suspect that if Blair tries to stay in power for too long, a stalking horse bid is likely (a name often mentioned is Alan Simpson), although I tend to think he'll resign before that happens.

Either way, the first meeting of the new PLP is crucial.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The 2007-2008  timeframe is likely to be when the changeover from Blair to Brown would occur.  Are there any predictable political events then that would suggest a good time for Blair to step down, and be likely to cause grumblings if he doesn'?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Referendum on the E.U Constitution

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Referendum on the E.U Constitution

Damn, I support the EU Constitution being passed, and I want to see Blair go. Oh, well, having the Constitution passed will be better in the long run, even though it'll help Blair.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So you think that a revised constitution will be up for a vote in 2007-2008?  Between those who want a stronger and those who want a weaker constitution, I'm very leary of a new EU constitution being adopted any time soon.  I think it would take something dramatic, such as the collapse of the Euro, for a new EU constitution of any variety to be passed before 2010 under the current conditions.

[Emsworth]

So you think that a revised constitution will be up for a vote in 2007-2008?  Between those who want a stronger and those who want a weaker constitution, I'm very leary of a new EU constitution being adopted any time soon.

If a nation like France is having difficulty approving it, then the treaty's prospects are very bleak indeed.

[Banana Republic]

I agree the EU constitution is the probably what can do it.

The more countries that don't ratify it, the less of an impact it will have on the Labour government. If the U.K. is the only country not to ratify it then I seriously doubt we'll stay the union.

[Cubby]

Yes Blair will obviously have to step down before he completes his term but I disagree with the Labour MPs who are calling for his head right now, just days after the election. The party did poorly but they still did win with a sizeable majority and Blair should stay on a while longer. My problem is that just because Howard resigned right away doesn't mean the PM should.

Gordon Brown doesn't seem to have much charisma. Yet the Brits seem to like him a lot so hopefully he can have the career that charisma-less Al Gore was denied in this country. Its good to see a politician succeed (so far) on their ideology and not whether "you could have a drink with him" which is how I remember people describing Bush in 2000.

[minionofmidas]

So you think that a revised constitution will be up for a vote in 2007-2008?  Between those who want a stronger and those who want a weaker constitution, I'm very leary of a new EU constitution being adopted any time soon.  I think it would take something dramatic, such as the collapse of the Euro

Where do you people get that notion from. Not. Gonna. Happen.

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[minionofmidas]

So you think that a revised constitution will be up for a vote in 2007-2008?  Between those who want a stronger and those who want a weaker constitution, I'm very leary of a new EU constitution being adopted any time soon.

If a nation like France is having difficulty approving it, then the treaty's prospects are very bleak indeed.

Didn't hurt the Maastricht treaty...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So you think that a revised constitution will be up for a vote in 2007-2008?  Between those who want a stronger and those who want a weaker constitution, I'm very leary of a new EU constitution being adopted any time soon.  I think it would take something dramatic, such as the collapse of the Euro

Where do you people get that notion from. Not. Gonna. Happen.

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I wasn’t trying to imply that I saw a Euro collapse as being even remotely likely in the next five years, merely that it would take an impetus of that magnitude to get all 25 EU countries to agree on a new constitution within those same five years.