Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread

[rob in cal]

   I have some questions about Germany and its pledge to take in 800k refugees.  Is this for this year only, and in future years will it take in even more? Is the idea that this is only for temporary refuge, or for permanent legal status in Germany?  Is the CDU excited about inviting in more future left-leaning voters (if in fact this leads to future citizens)? Has parliament voted for this yet?  I'm wondering how people in poorer parts of the EU are feeling about the infusion of all these people who might end up taking jobs in Germany that otherwise might have gone to Europeans from high unemployment countries.

[rob in cal]

    I wonder if all the arguments about quotas for each country will encourage some countries to think about leaving the Schengen border agreement, which would, correct me if I'm wrong, give such countries more latitude in opting in or out of such quota agreements.

[rob in cal]

So now the German government says it can accept 500,000 per year for several years.  I wonder how this will be received, and whether this step toward ethnic, cultural transformation of Germany will be supported by Germans.  Would love to see an actual Swiss style referendum on the issue.

[rob in cal]

     I think its fascinating how leaders like Fico and Zeman who were elected running from the left, are taking on pro low-immigration policies on this migrant issue.  Its encouraging to see the low immigration side find adherents from the left, not just the right.  In the US I think the last few prominent anti-amnesty, potential low immigration adherents in the Democratic Party, Senators like Byron Dorgan, Nelson from Nebraska and at one point in his career, Harry Reid, are now retired or have changed their ideology. 

[rob in cal]

     The support level for Orban's stance is intriguing.  Clearly he is getting support from people who otherwise don't support his regime, if in fact its 80%.  I'd love to see some countries hold referenda on this issue, with a question such as " should our country accept EU mandated quotas, or should we have our own choice on the issue".

[rob in cal]

    With Germany mentioning that countries refusing their migrant quotas might see their EU subsidies in jeopardy, that brings up the question of cost benefits of immigration.  In the US the pro high immigration side often talks about how the US benefits economically from high amounts of immigration.  So, if this is true in this case in Europe, those countries refusing to take migrants are foregoing some economic benefits and thus if anything should be economically rewarded by the EU rather than penalized, as they are abstaining from the great demographic bonanza/gold rush that Germany is going to enjoy for generations to come.

[rob in cal]

   Some opponents of the legitimacy of this whole migrant crisis have pointed out that young males dominate the demographics of the migrants.  They argue that if this was a fully legitimate group of refugees, women and children, as well as older people would be much more represented.  OTOH, younger males would be most likely to be dragged into the actual fighting in these countries.

[rob in cal]

   I'd love to see Germany make some kind of deal whereby they would pay potential migrants more money to stay wherever they are and not migrate to Europe. The mechanics and logistics of this would of course be difficult, but it would be fascinating to see what would happen.

[rob in cal]

   Yes, under my scenario money would go to people in refugee camps in Lebanon and Turkey, and maybe some subsidies and bribes and other goodies to host country governments, as they would be retaining people in their countries and thus have extra costs.

[rob in cal]

   The Hungarian Prime Minister Orban  has a productive suggestion about the migrants.  World-wide quotas, not Europe wide.  I'm sure this will go over really well, and that in the next few days we will see how generous and accepting the world will be to these migrants, leaving Europe in the dust so to speak, as country after country around the world will rush to take in as many as possible. 
   All kidding aside, I would strongly support the idea of wealthier countries helping any poor country that takes migrants with strong financial backing.  I could imagine a broad consensus of European parties and political figures getting behind this.

[rob in cal]

   Here's a cheering thought for Swedes concerned about the ethnic transformation of their country.  At some point, if in fact all this immigration leads to poor quality of life, a poorer economy, etc. etc. then immigrants will no longer want to go there.  Of course by that time, it might look like one big Malmo demographically and socially.

[rob in cal]

   Well, I would think that Swedes who don't like the ethnic transformation of their country would not like a Malmo situation, in that it has a 41 % either immigrant or children of immigrant population according to wikipedia, though a big chunk of them are from other European countries, which might be reassuring to some who would be more opposed to non-European immigration.

[rob in cal]

    Consider me old-fashioned, but if I were German I'd want to see the German electorate directly involved in deciding how they feel about this transformation of Germany, either through some type of national referendum, or a traditional election in which the parties announce clear policies about what Germany's stance should be.

[rob in cal]

   Well, according to the Spiegel article already referenced, Gabriel has now said that Germany can only take one million migrants, so maybe his noose should be removed as he seems much to the right on this issue now, compared to those who are saying, (or at least were saying earlier), that Germany could take much more than a million.

[rob in cal]

    Any thoughts on what types of people make up the right and left wing protestors in Austria, on this issue?  I'm wondering about social background, education, professions etc.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, any thoughts about who in the Austrian ruling coalition led the way in getting this policy change?

[rob in cal]

   I've noticed a few articles recently about refugees returning to the middle east from Europe.  This is an encouraging trend and hopefully the wealthy European countries will provide financial assistance to help them get back on their feet once they return.  Many of them paid so much just to get there. I'd like to see substantial "severance package" type financial inducements to encourage this.  Also encouraging is that the German government is paying for ads in Afghanistan to discourage people from coming in the first place. Hopefully the personal stories of these returnees, and the reasons they decided to come back will receive wide coverage and began to resonate in the sending regions.

[rob in cal]

   So Merkel now says that Syrians and Iraqis should plan on going home once their countries are at peace.  Not sure if she had said this before, but good that its mentioned as the end goal.  Also brings up question of whether refugees are in better conditions in their temporary home in Germany or where they were before, since they are only in Germany on a temporary basis, according to Merkel.

[rob in cal]

    I'm fascinated in the idea of the Russian immigrant community in Germany taking a role in anti-migrant protest.  This should be exciting to those in Germany who hope that immigrants in general start integrating into the general German population, for here we see a case of an immigrant group taking an active role in German civic life, and taking a mainstream political stance (if the AFD, CSU and conservative wing of CDU is mainstream that is). 

[rob in cal]

   I like the idea of a "repatriation culture" theme entering into political discourse in Europe.  I'd love to see recruitment bonuses for a migrant who recruits a certain amount of fellow migrants to leave Europe with him, plus the idea of a three (or four or ten or whatever) to one ratio in which a wealthy country like Germany offers to spend that much more money in middle eastern camps for every migrant that leaves Germany (i.e. if they would have spent 10k euros a year on one migrant in Germany, now Germany would commit to spending 3 or 4 times that much per returning migrant in humanitarian aid in front-line states with refugee camps.)  Call it the stay in your home region bonus.  As Merkel would say, Germany could schaffen das.

[rob in cal]

    Just read another story about migrants returning to the middle east from Germany.  The migrants usually mention how they were told by the human smugglers that life in Germany would be paradise, with big houses, good jobs available, and then they find that that's not the case.  I wonder how many migrants would have come had they known the truth from the beginning.  I don't like reading about migrants who are trying to get home who have to scrape up the money to do so.
  The European governments need to do a better job of making sure that anyone who wants to go home should be given free tickets home, plus, ideally a repatriation bonus.  A repatriation culture should be developing.  Hopefully over time this will emerge with positive results for everyone involved.  A win win situation.
 

[rob in cal]

   I'm intrigued by the 250,000 euro fine being proposed for countries that won't take their quota of migrants. Its 250,000 per migrant not taken.  This seems to imply that there are costs associated with taking migrants, but what about the arguments that taking in migrants is an economic plus?  This seems to be implying that its not, and those countries which are missing out on this demographic gold rush need to pay for the privilege of missing out on the fun.
   If the fine was much lower, say about 10,000 euros per migrant, I could see where it makes sense, but 250k?  If the fines were on the lower side, perhaps the poorer countries could set up go fund me accounts, and launch big national fundraising drives to raise their fine money, but at this price it will likely face huge national resistance from different countries.  I could just imagine national celebrities getting on the act, maybe benefit concerts to raise the money, a soccer star donates a month salary, perhaps Donald Trump sends in a nice little check, things like that.