Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread

[Gunnar Larsson]

So now the German government says it can accept 500,000 per year for several years. I wonder how this will be received, and whether this step toward ethnic, cultural transformation of Germany will be supported by Germans.  Would love to see an actual Swiss style referendum on the issue.

Link?

I think it is obvious large parts of the population will be against this level of non-European immigration.

As for political consequences: Would anyone prominent in CDU be likely to split off on this and form a National Conservative party? Is the first thing that comes to mind.

(but lets take that in the German politics thread)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/08/germany-500000-refugees-a-year-clashes-lesbos

Remember, not all countries are like Denmark..

[Gunnar Larsson]

An Arab translator at Vienna train station recently estimated that 25-50% of the migrants arriving there "have no Syrian Arab dialect". He also spoke about a guy from Egypt who said that "now is the chance of his lifetime to sneak into Europe, using fake Syrian passports."

I don't think anyone has claimed that it is just Arabic speaking people from Syria coming to Europe. Or that they are the only ones suffering from conflicts.

Also, seems fairly odd to suddenly single out Kurds and Christians as apparently not real refugees (though I guess it makes as much sense as the opposite position, held by some countries)

[Gunnar Larsson]

An Arab translator at Vienna train station recently estimated that 25-50% of the migrants arriving there "have no Syrian Arab dialect". He also spoke about a guy from Egypt who said that "now is the chance of his lifetime to sneak into Europe, using fake Syrian passports."

I don't think anyone has claimed that it is just Arabic speaking people from Syria coming to Europe. Or that they are the only ones suffering from conflicts.

Also, seems fairly odd to suddenly single out Kurds and Christians as apparently not real refugees (though I guess it makes as much sense as the opposite position, held by some countries)

That's not the main point: the important point is that an increasing number of people from non-war zones are using the naive goodwill of the Germans/Austrian governments to sneak into these countries with fake passports or no papers at all, by destroying them before they arrive.

Well, in that case you should deliver your main point and back it up with facts, rather than give a rather irrelevant number from one translator. Of course some will not follow the rules, as is always the case no matter if we talk migration or something else. What matters are how many and why. So, how many people are we talking about?

[Gunnar Larsson]

The Czech Republic also announced border controls with Austria, fearing that the migrants will now attempt to reach Germany through this country.

In the meantime, Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb announced that the highest bracket of Finland's capital gains tax will be raised by one per cent, while people earning more than 72,300 euros will be required to pay a so-called solidarity tax for two years, lowering the threshold from 90,000 euros. "These will help to cover higher immigration costs which we estimate to be about 114 million euros this year."

That will surely make immigration more popular.

Not a fan of the Finnish government, but their current trolling of PS is very amusing (and way better than the Danish handling of DF), especially taking into account that PS are members of said government..

[Gunnar Larsson]

Not a fan of the Finnish government, but their current trolling of PS is very amusing (and way better than the Danish handling of DF), especially taking into account that PS are members of said government..

Yeah, screwing up your country by taking in people who won't fit in your society just to discredit your democratically legitimized coalition partner is a really moral thing to do

PS should pull out of this coalition if it continues to open the borders. Sadly, Soini might be too egotistical to do so, which would ruin both the PS and Finland's chance to stop mass immigration and an expanding EU.

Well, I am fairly certain that we differ in our opinion on what "screws up your country" and who might be responsible for that ;-) I am quite ok with right wing extremists being trolled and, as they usually have a rather destructive influence, would consider that the right moral thing to do. Not really a fan of anti-Swedish parties either, though the "bättre folk"-crowd might be emphasizing that too much..

On what is happening on the ground it actually turns out that the refugees heading north are going to Finland rather than Sweden based on the reports (see google translations of http://hbl.fi/nyheter/2015-09-13/770283/minst-500-flyktingar-anlande-till-tornea-under-sondagen, http://hbl.fi/nyheter/2015-09-13/770224/merparten-vill-inte-soka-asyl-i-sverige and http://hbl.fi/nyheter/2015-09-14/770403/rekordmanga-asylsokande-ger-rusning-hos-polisen).

[Gunnar Larsson]

Some rumors about the swedish government giving free train rides up north to the Finnish border to force them to Finland.

What a bunch of assholes. Follow merkel with similar open border statements and then quietly reverse it by doing this stunt against a neighbor country when the influx is more than expected.

No free train rides. However, SJ (the biggest, state owned, train company) has said that they will be rather flexible with refugees without tickets. Based on what I have read in Swedish speaking Finnish news refugees have taken buses (operated by other companies) to continue from Stockholm to the border between Sweden and Finland.

The number arriving in Sweden is not that big. I travelled from Uppsala/Stockholm to Malmö and back this Friday. In the morning there were no noticeable crowds of refugees. In the evening there were some in Malmö (maybe 10-20 people as far as I could see) and on the train police entered the train just before Stockholm and provided information in Swedish, Arabic and Persian on how to apply for asylum etc. As we departed from the train there were people from the police, red cross etc. As well as apparently some people telling refugees that they would be beaten by the police. The latter apparently caused quite a few young refugees to run away rather than register. Brilliant way to ruin lives..

In general the number of people heading to Sweden is down somewhat compared to last year.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Why would refugees want to go to Finland instead of Sweden?

Finland is a developed country. But other than that their going to go back to Sweden once they realize how hard it is to learn Finnish. Finnish is quite brutal to learn by non-native speakers and its just as hard as tonal languages.  Swedish is at least much less harder to learn.

What I have heard is that you are more likely to be allowed to stay (one way or the other) in Finland if you are an Iraqi. Also, some people might be scaring them away (see my 21:31:55 CET post)

[Gunnar Larsson]

Of course by that time, it might look like one big Malmo demographically and socially.

The Horror!!

[Gunnar Larsson]

Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, so we're not talking about increasing the population here: stabilizing it would be good enough.

I still don't understand the logic behind this. The main concern about the graying of most western societies of course is that it becomes difficult to impossible to finance the pensions system. Now could somebody enlighten me as to how bringing in millions of people with little skills is going to change all of this? They will require government help as well. So essentially you're increasing the burden on the working population even further while, as someone else has mentioned, the people that are coming in right now will want to retire some day as well.

The logic is that it is much cheaper to make a 20-years old employable than a 0-years old. Even if it takes some years to get a job it will be less than about 20 or so.

[Gunnar Larsson]

But Sweden, what about your duty to help all the people in the world? I think you simply have to place those refugees in private homes. Anyone that has more than 50 square meters to themselves can surely house a couple of migrants.

That was actually a recent proposal from the Greens here...

Source?

[Gunnar Larsson]

Sweden says "take our migrants please", Denmark tells them to shut the f up and deal with a problem of their own making. http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=6296336

Okay I need to ask our Swedish posters; why do the Swedish government do this, it should be obvious that Danish reaction is around as good as Sweden could expect (the rest of EU just ignored the Swedish government), why ask for something you will never get?

Beezeer makes it sound like the government is begging Denmark to take the refugees, which is not the case. They have merely highlighted that there are countries beside Sweden and Germany where it is possible to claim asylum.

There is no reason for the Swedish government to support the disgraceful Danish government (and Stöjberg in particular) in their mission to keep Denmark "clean".

[Gunnar Larsson]

Have they been surveyed on their skills? I assumed it was mainly the relatively wealthy ones who could afford to pay smugglers...

So what ?

The skills assessment for 1000s of asylum seekers costs what ? ... Money.

The language courses for 1000s of asylum seekers who cannot speak proper German costs what ? ... Money.

Do you expect a Syrian middle-class refugee who enters the labour force to talk English with an Austrian customer ?

As hard as it is to say, these people that are coming in are a big drain on the labour market system (which has to pay for these assessment tests, and then they often move on to Germany and the tests were useless and a waste of money) and the social safety net.

They are costing us way more money than they would ever bring into the system and could end up as an unnecessary competition for Austrian unemployed who are currently looking for jobs that are already getting scarcer and scarcer.

Bottom line: These people that are coming in by the droves now are a pain in the ass for many reasons.

So... they will be unemployed and they will take your jobs. Perhaps an assessment of the logical skills of the natives is in order?

[Gunnar Larsson]

Sweden wants to deport 80,000 migrants over the next few years.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35425735

Your description is somewhat misleading. Basically, based on average rates of rejection about 60,000 (possibly up to 80,000) of the 163,000 people who applied for asylum last year will have their applications rejected. It is not like there is an official position on the number of applications that should be accepted/rejected..

[Gunnar Larsson]

Someone tell me why it is imperative for refugees to go to Germany or Sweden rather than stay in war-free Turkey, Jordan, or Morocco?

Or go to equally war-free Hungary, Poland, Saudiarabia and the US?

As far as Turkey and Jordan goes it is obvious that they are receiving more people than can be handled in a good way. It is hardly surprising that people prefer to not be in a limbo. It is obviously much easier to handle a set amount of refugees if they are spread over a bigger receiving population, no matter if we are talking about the local or global scale.

[Gunnar Larsson]

yes, i'm sure those greedy refugees would be staying in syria/iraq/afghanistan/libya/etc if the naïve left-leftists would just stop giving them so many incentives

obviously....not sure why the roll eyes are there

It is not naïve left-leftists that have the sick idea that it is better that people travel in very expensive and dangerous boats, rather than use cheaper and safe means of transport.

[Gunnar Larsson]

You think non-left-leftists want economic refugees to come to Europe in sh**tty boats?

No, but it is a consequence of the naivety of, in your words, "non-left-leftists"

[Gunnar Larsson]

You think non-left-leftists want economic refugees to come to Europe in sh**tty boats?

No,

but that's what you said.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well no, it's a consequence of your idiot leaders telling economic migrants that they are very welcome.  If you put out a sign that says "all your dreams can come true if you figure a way to make it inside our countries" you're going to have people die trying to get there.  You may wish that they traveled on cruise ships instead of rafts, but wishes and 50 cents will get you a cup of coffee.  The non"left lefitsts"don't want them coming at all.  Blaming them for people dying in route is stupid, but I suppose that's par for the course.

I would be beneficial for the discussion if you made at least some modest fact checking before you write.. As long as life is hell in countries surrounding the EU people will try to get here and as long as the current legislation is in place they will do so on insanely dangerous boats, rather than on cheaper normal boats or airplanes. To blame the left for any of that is simply factually incorrect. Similarly it was not the left that terminated Mare Nostrum. The right will, when it returns to its senses, have to do a lot of soul searching..

Anyway, in another era..

[Gunnar Larsson]

Someone tell me why it is imperative for refugees to go to Germany or Sweden rather than stay in war-free Turkey, Jordan, or Morocco?

Or go to equally war-free Hungary, Poland, Saudiarabia and the US?

As far as Turkey and Jordan goes it is obvious that they are receiving more people than can be handled in a good way. It is hardly surprising that people prefer to not be in a limbo. It is obviously much easier to handle a set amount of refugees if they are spread over a bigger receiving population, no matter if we are talking about the local or global scale.

...but why send them to Sweden, and give them full benefits, when the EU, if they they are feeling charitable, can help pitch in to help frontline countries bear the costs. The idea should be that their displacement is ultimately temporary. Once the conflict ends they should return to their native countries.

Turkey is host to 2.7 million people, Jordan 0.6 million people (http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=224 and http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=107. Those numbers would correspond to between 10 and 20 million people if the USA would receive the same number of people as a proportion of their population. If you distribute the refugees more broadly you will get more reasonable numbers and the countries will have a better capacity to handle the refugees. It is not just about the money..

[Gunnar Larsson]

It's about time for another excuse from our useful idiots.  Perhaps evergreen or Gunnar can reminds us that if these guys had gotten safer passage they wouldn't have been so rapey when they got here.  Tony thinks that it's his countrymen's fault for not assimilating them better. 

Maybe if we gave them all rides on cruise ships and limos to posh suites in the swanky part of town, they'd rape a little less.  Maybe they'd assimilate a little better if the people that are pro-immigration all took a refugee or 5 into their homes and taught them your peace loving secular ways?  I'm sure your little sister will be fine.

I appreciate your well mannered writing style and general sense of decency..

Obviously people that commit crimes should be sent to prison. Just as obviously people that do not commit crimes should not have to suffer for what some countrymen have done. It would be no problem to find enough horrendous crimes to start a similarly filthy campaign as this thread hos become against any people on this planet. Would it be sensible of me to assume that you will behave like Charles Manson, no.. Is it sensible of you to assume that Syrians etc. are coming to Europe commit rape, no.. Is it sensible to help people that flee from wars, yes.. Would it be sensible if countries such as Saudi-Arabia, Poland and the US took their fair share, yes..

I have lived in immigrant-rich areas for the last 15 years and I am fine thank you. Two of those years I spent sharing a flat with a brother of Hamas health minister (as well as some other people). He is now an atheist. My little sister is indeed fine, and I find it a bit creepy of you to comment on her well-being... 

So dead0man, what are you doing to improve that state of this planet?

[Gunnar Larsson]

It's about time for another excuse from our useful idiots.  Perhaps evergreen or Gunnar can reminds us that if these guys had gotten safer passage they wouldn't have been so rapey when they got here.  Tony thinks that it's his countrymen's fault for not assimilating them better.  

Maybe if we gave them all rides on cruise ships and limos to posh suites in the swanky part of town, they'd rape a little less.  Maybe they'd assimilate a little better if the people that are pro-immigration all took a refugee or 5 into their homes and taught them your peace loving secular ways?  I'm sure your little sister will be fine.

I appreciate your well mannered writing style and general sense of decency..

Obviously people that commit crimes should be sent to prison. Just as obviously people that do not commit crimes should not have to suffer for what some countrymen have done. It would be no problem to find enough horrendous crimes to start a similarly filthy campaign as this thread hos become against any people on this planet. Would it be sensible of me to assume that you will behave like Charles Manson, no.. Is it sensible of you to assume that Syrians etc. are coming to Europe commit rape, no.. Is it sensible to help people that flee from wars, yes.. Would it be sensible if countries such as Saudi-Arabia, Poland and the US took their fair share, yes..

I have lived in immigrant-rich areas for the last 15 years and I am fine thank you. Two of those years I spent sharing a flat with a brother of Hamas health minister (as well as some other people). He is now an atheist. My little sister is indeed fine, and I find it a bit creepy of you to comment on her well-being...  

So dead0man, what are you doing to improve that state of this planet?

Are you aware Sweeden is the rape capital of Europe and that there are 50 newly formed Arab ghetto no go zones in which police/services cant enter?

If your not im happy to provide you with my sources..

And you do have a point, not every Syrian will rape, in fact most will behave well.. but why bring in criminals and ruin your country when you dont have to, women, children and families are an exception.

You cant bring in 100 k 20 year old single men bursting with testosterone and not expect a ton of rape.

Yes, I read the original report (pdf link, with pdf link providing an update) before it got distorted by the far right. I live fairly close to one of those areas mentioned in the original report. They have in general been problem areas since more or less when they were built in the late 60s/early 70s. Not so much to do with the ethnicity of the people living there as the fact the it is where you find cheap housing.

As for being rape capital, have you heard of Julian Assange?

Obviously no country intentionally bring in people that commit crimes into the country. It is not like you can predict who will commit crimes in advance. When people commit crimes you have to handle that as best you can.

Is the fact that some people will commit crimes enough to stop all people fleeing war. No. Successful countries are not built on avoiding challenges. After a (short or longer) time the people will provide a substantial benefit for their destination country. Obviously successful integration requires that the destination country has capacity to handle the people that arrive, which was not the case during the autumn when almost 100 000 people arrived over just two months! If spread over all of EU (as well as other countries) that would not be a problem.

[Gunnar Larsson]

What an odd end to an otherwise pointless post.  You almost seem to be implying that living in an immigrant-rich area is improving the state of the planet.

It makes gentrifying white liberals feeeeel good and signal their virtue.

And isn't that what's reeeaalllly important?

What matters is that you get more value for the money. But not having to have Hyacinth Bucket as your neighbour and being able to be obnoxious towards conservatives and liberals is obviously added bonuses.

[Gunnar Larsson]

What an odd end to an otherwise pointless post.  You almost seem to be implying that living in an immigrant-rich area is improving the state of the planet.

Well that is pretty much what you wrote, in the non-creepy part of your post.