Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread

[dead0man]

You're right, but don't expect to be heard.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Now the illegals are bringing the war in Syria with them to the Hungarian border

This is by far the worst hyperbole I've read on the forum, which is filled with excessive hyperboles.

[DavidB.]

You're right, but don't expect to be heard.

I certainly don't As I said, I'm not interested in ag's response, which I will probably ignore because discussing issues with him is pointless, but maybe others will get what I'm saying.

Now the illegals are bringing the war in Syria with them to the Hungarian border

This is by far the worst hyperbole I've read on the forum, which is filled with excessive hyperboles.

Why? These pictures look like the intifada. Maybe not the war in Syria, but it's close enough.

[ag]

I apologize for responding to the Dutch gentleman. There are certain things that are so far beyond the pale, they should not be responded to. The gross disrespect shown to one's own ancestors is one of those. I got provoked - still, I should have held myself from responding.

[DavidB.]

Not sure which of ag's replies was more childish; the deleted ad-hominem or the current "sorry-not-sorry" one

On-topic: I was very sympathetic to Hungary's position, but this is a dick move. Letting these people into the EU and then moving them to the Austrian border is not classy. When Hungary and Croatia actually assist these people in moving to the north, they are partly responsible for the problem and they should be held responsible.

http://news.sky.com/story/1555206/countries-to-open-migrant-corridor-to-germany

[Tender Branson]

Not sure which of ag's replies was more childish; the deleted ad-hominem or the current "sorry-not-sorry" one

On-topic: I was very sympathetic to Hungary's position, but this is a dick move. Letting these people into the EU and then moving them to the Austrian border is not classy. When Hungary and Croatia actually assist these people in moving to the north, they are partly responsible for the problem and they should be held responsible.

http://news.sky.com/story/1555206/countries-to-open-migrant-corridor-to-germany

Orban said it's "a German problem" and it largely is now that Merkel has decided to go full moralistic vacuum cleaner of the world. Before, with the Palestinian migrant kid she was the "sorcerer" still, but with her decision to "invite" everyone in - she became the "Sorcerer's Apprentice" instead:

To quote Goethe:

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[DavidB.]

Orban said it's "a German problem" and it largely is now that Merkel has decided to go full moralistic vacuum cleaner of the world. Before, with the Palestinian migrant kid she was the "sorcerer" still, but with her decision to "invite" everyone in - she became the "Sorcerer's Apprentice" instead:

To quote Goethe:

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All well and good, and Orban might even be right, but by bringing these people to the West this is not only becoming Germany's problem - it's becoming the problem of Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, and Finland as well. It's sad that we are also facing the consequences of Germany's issues with history.

[politicus]

Not sure which of ag's replies was more childish; the deleted ad-hominem or the current "sorry-not-sorry" one

On-topic: I was very sympathetic to Hungary's position, but this is a dick move. Letting these people into the EU and then moving them to the Austrian border is not classy. When Hungary and Croatia actually assist these people in moving to the north, they are partly responsible for the problem and they should be held responsible.

http://news.sky.com/story/1555206/countries-to-open-migrant-corridor-to-germany

They even some to the Slovakian border, which seems even less warranted (seems like payback for the eternal Hungarian minority conflict).

It seems weird that the Croats have not arranged a corridor with Slovenia/Austria if they wanted one. The Hungarian position has been well known all the time.

I was wondering: What is the traffickers route from Afghanistan to Turkey? Directly via Iran?

[Green Line]

In the future people are going to look back on these events and wonder why everyone was burying their heads in the sand.  There is no doubt radicalized jihadists are crossing the border with the migrants, and the terrorist attacks that will come with it will have been so preventable.

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

In the future people are going to look back on these events and wonder why everyone was burying their heads in the sand.  There is no doubt radicalized jihadists are crossing the border with the migrants, and the terrorist attacks that will come with it will have been so preventable.

Well, it's not really everyone but just the Germans. I really don't know what's happened with Merkel these past few weeks. Respect for the rule of law and concerns about safety have been thrown overboard. I mean what is the point in keeping tabs on potential terrorists if you now just allow everyone from Syria to come in with no questions asked. How the hell a head of government can act in such a reckless manner is beyond me.

[ag]

I really don't know what's happened with Merkel these past few weeks.

I conjecture she is simply a decent human being.

[Ban my account ffs!]

yeah as annoying as her actions have been.. I think Merkel is just honestly overwhelmed.  She is so scared of people not liking her.  And this is a situation where she literally cannot please everyone... she has to choose a group to oppose her.  Which will it be?

[Beezer]

I really don't know what's happened with Merkel these past few weeks.

I conjecture she is simply a decent human being.

Is Austria a warzone? She singlehandedly destroyed a European agreement in a single night. Politicians are asked to act on a rational, not an emotional basis and look beyond the immediate future. Her decisions will have changed Germany - and in my opinion not for the better.

I am also a decent human being which is why I think Europe needs to do more to bring the Syrian war to an end, improve the conditions in the camps in neighboring countries (because there are plenty of people who don't have the money to go on a perilous journey to Europe) and help ensure that the country will afterwards not be robbed of its best and brightest people.

[Tender Branson]

Josef Fritzl's house will be used as an asylum seeker centre soon, because no Austrian buyer has been found so far.

(Don't worry, the basement has been filled with concrete, so no migrant has to sleep there ...)

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Fritzl-Haus_soll_Unterkunft_fuer_Fluechtlinge_werden-Koennen_einziehen-Story-472709

...

Meanwhile, Lepra has broken out at an asylum seeker camp in Salzburg:

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Fall_von_Lepra_in_Salzburger_Asyl-Zeltlager-Keine_Gefahr-Story-472763

...

Also: 15.000 more migrants are expected in Burgenland today as Croatia buses them to Hungary and Hungary buses all of them to Austria. 7.000 have already arrived so far today.

[politicus]

Balkan update

Croatia:

- Has temporarily closed the border with Serbia on Thursday night, though the biggest border passing at Batrovci is still open for traffic (but closely guarded).

- International trains from Serbia are stopped at the border with Croatia.

- More than 13,300 refugees from Syria and Iraq entered Croatia from Serbia on Wednesday and Thursday,

- The Croatian government has urged refugees to stay in their reception centres in Serbia, Macedonia and Greece, since the capacity for receiving refugees in Croatia is full.

- Many refugees are becoming desperate in their desire to get to Slovenia and on to Western Europe, being willing to pay a fortune for transport, but Slovenia isn't allowing the vast mass of refugees to enter - they allowed only 150 in on Thursday night.

- Orban has warned that Hungary will build a new fence on the border with Croatia, similar to the one finished this week on the border to Serbia.

Croatian Foreign Minister Vesna Pusic:

- Croatia will stick to the rules and register all refugees. (yet they still bused refugees to the border)

- Refugees are not a security risk, because "terrorists do not operate in punctured boats across the Mediterranean, but in planes in business class". (contrast to the Lebanese Minister of Education saying: "2% of young males heading to Europe might be ISIL connected" (rough guess, but the Lebanese government is bound to have better sources for this than the Croatian)

PM Zoran Milanovic: "Croatia has heart, but also brains" - will not close border for good nor build a fence, but also "won't become a hotspot for refugees in the EU, while its neighbours are closing their borders".

Looks like Zoran M. got more than he bargained for after his very pro-migrant (incl. economic migrants) statements.

HDZ is predictably not happy. President Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic:

"National security should be the no. 1 priority".

KGK has asked the chief of joint staff of the Armed forces to raise the level of urgency.

Defence Minister Ante Kotromanovic has complained about the Presidents unilateral action, and said the situation isn't that dramatic, but that the military are ready to protect "national interests".

If HDZ wins the 2015/16 election Croatia will be every bit as though as Hungary. Next poll will be interesting. Elections in February at the latest, where refugee crisis won't have blown over.


Serbia:

President Tomislav Nikolic: EU has put the entire burden of the refugee crisis on Serbia and that is neither fair nor sustainable.

"If anyone in Europe is thinking seriously about safety and security and about the survival of the continent, it is time to finally say what will happen, and then this should be implemented by all EU member states"

"EU members is being selfish, but Serbia isn't, and will continue to help the refugees for as long as possible".

If Croatia close the border and international roads, Serbia will be forced to protect its interests before international courts.

"Why isn't Croatia capable of handling 6,000 refugees while 140,000 have peacefully passed through Serbia this year".


Macedonia:

Macedonia has prolonged the emergency situation in the border region for another month. Military, will stay and assist the police.


Bosnia:

The government has expressed concern that the refugees' route will now switch towards Bosnia.

Security Minister Dragan Mektic: Bosnia can receive up to 5.000, after that capacities are filled, then it is ready to close its borders. Ready to offer transit, but only if there is an established corridor.

Bosnia plans to use old factories and barracks in case of a massive influx and is ready to use some budget reserves if needed. Complains about no financial help from the EU.

Says Croatia's border closure has created a blockage, which could shift the refugee route toward Bosnia. Two crossing points which refugees could use, one in NE near Zvornik, or another in SE near Trebinje. Border crossings in the north will be more challenging for refuges due torrents in Drina, which forms the border between Bosnia and Serbia up there. Crossings in the south will be more difficult to control because of geography and sparse population.


Montenegro:

Drafting a formal plan in case of a possible detour in the route taken by refugees towards Western Europe. One centre in Podgorica is the only proper place where refugees can be sheltered. Alternative space in closed factory for 300, other than that: tents.
Only children and their mothers and other "vulnerable groups" will be placed there. Alternative

[ingemann]

In the future people are going to look back on these events and wonder why everyone was burying their heads in the sand.  There is no doubt radicalized jihadists are crossing the border with the migrants, and the terrorist attacks that will come with it will have been so preventable.

Well, it's not really everyone but just the Germans. I really don't know what's happened with Merkel these past few weeks. Respect for the rule of law and concerns about safety have been thrown overboard. I mean what is the point in keeping tabs on potential terrorists if you now just allow everyone from Syria to come in with no questions asked. How the hell a head of government can act in such a reckless manner is beyond me.

I think that it was cynical decision for Merkel to force the discussion about quota through, it had more or less been in a deadlock the last two years, and doing this forced everyone to find a decision. But I also think she miscalculated the scale of the wave. 

[politicus]

In the future people are going to look back on these events and wonder why everyone was burying their heads in the sand.  There is no doubt radicalized jihadists are crossing the border with the migrants, and the terrorist attacks that will come with it will have been so preventable.

Well, it's not really everyone but just the Germans. I really don't know what's happened with Merkel these past few weeks. Respect for the rule of law and concerns about safety have been thrown overboard. I mean what is the point in keeping tabs on potential terrorists if you now just allow everyone from Syria to come in with no questions asked. How the hell a head of government can act in such a reckless manner is beyond me.

I think that it was cynical decision for Merkel to force the discussion about quota through, it had more or less been in a deadlock the last two years, and doing this forced everyone to find a decision. But I also think she miscalculated the scale of the wave. 

That is actually a plausible hypothesis. Haven't thought about it that way. Interesting to see whether the Germans agree with you.

[rob in cal]

   I'd love to see Germany make some kind of deal whereby they would pay potential migrants more money to stay wherever they are and not migrate to Europe. The mechanics and logistics of this would of course be difficult, but it would be fascinating to see what would happen.

[Foucaulf]

Inform us how colourful paper Euros can purchase shelter in a warzone.

More seriously, Europe could have contributed more to UNHCR 2-3 years ago to ensure refugee camps farther from Europe had tenable living conditions. But expectations have changed too much since then.

[rob in cal]

   Yes, under my scenario money would go to people in refugee camps in Lebanon and Turkey, and maybe some subsidies and bribes and other goodies to host country governments, as they would be retaining people in their countries and thus have extra costs.

[politicus]

Inform us how colourful paper Euros can purchase shelter in a warzone.

More seriously, Europe could have contributed more to UNHCR 2-3 years ago to ensure refugee camps farther from Europe had tenable living conditions. But expectations have changed too much since then.

Especially regarding Egypt, where UNHCR has recently (six months ago or so) had to cut their allowances in half and there is enormous unemployment, the professionals working with refugees say EU (or other sponsors) paying half the allowance would have a significant effect.

[politicus]

One aspect that will sustain this crisis is that while Northern Europe is one of the few areas, that will not be affected by climate change in the next 20-30 years, apart from rising sea levels ( which are manageable in a first world context), temperatures are starting to rise fast again after the 1998-2013 so-called "global hot break" and this will make more and more areas in the Middle East and Africa unlivable. This will sustain the refugee streams, either directly or indirectly through wars over water and other resources. The permanency of this refugee crisis is the factor that makes it unrealistic just to open borders. European countries needs to agree on a long term strategy and this instead of just responding to this as a one-off emergency.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=219492.0

[politicus]

I was wondering about something:

Hungary is now about to be closed off - they have already started on the border fence against Croatia and will no doubt move on to Romania if need be. HDZ in Croatia has made it clear they will close the borders if they win the next election (which will be in February at the latest) and are already warming up to this (President Grabar-Kitarovic has put the Army on high alert despite protests from the Minister of Defense). While the Croatian border is very long I have no doubt they can seal it off + there are also minefields left from the Balkan wars, which makes several routes impossible. The centre-left government in Croatia has temporarily closed the border (apart from one exit), but I doubt they have the stomach for an extended closure (they were previously among the most refugee positive in Europe and have emphasized the current measures are temporary) and with poll being fairly close, I see a HDZ-alliance victory as almost inevitable in the current scenario. And HDZ will by all accounts be prepared to use even tougher measures than Orban.

If Croatian and Hungary are sealed off, there is only the backdoor through Romania/Ukraine and then either through Slovakia or Poland. Poland is guaranteed to get a PiS government which will be tough as nails on immigration/refugees. That leaves only Slovakia as a gateway to Western Europe, and the Slovaks won't accept that.

In short: It looks like the Balkan route will soon be closed. What happens then? Will traffickers go for Italy again? (I never quite understood why the Balkan route became so popular. It is shorter, but unlike Italy, where you land in Western Europe, it is a long and perilous detour through "unattractive" countries). Or will the traffickers just keep using the Balkan route with hundreds of thousands of refugees and migrants concentrated on the Balkans, waiting for things to change or somehow finding a way through?

So, how do you that follow these things see the scenario after the Balkan route gets closed off?

[Helsinkian]

"How Do Syrian Women Feel about the Men Leaving for Europe as Refugees?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8n-eo5fDYU