Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread
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Author Topic: Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread  (Read 126434 times)
swl
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« Reply #775 on: November 02, 2015, 02:21:46 AM »

Interesting comment by the head of Germany's Office for Migration. Initially wondered if this was some sort of satirical article.

"Das ist eine gute Bereicherung unserer Arbeitswelt und unserer Gesellschaft, dass da nicht überall ältere graue Herren durch die Gegend laufen und langsam mit dem Auto auf der Autobahn rumfahren, sondern das wird eine lebendige Gesellschaft."

"This will be a good addition to our labor force and society, that there won't be just be old grey men walking around and driving slowly on the autobahn, this will instead be a vibrant society."

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148175570/So-besonnen-relativiert-Weise-die-Fluechtlingskrise.html

I wonder if he knows who pays his salary. Probably greying, older men.

Hey, at least they're not obfuscating their goals any longer.
Isn't he right though? I have the impression that the very low birth rate in Germany and the need to resort to immigration in the near future have been discussed for years. This can be a win-win situation for both Germany and the migrants.
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Beezer
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« Reply #776 on: November 02, 2015, 02:20:59 PM »

In order for it to be a win-win, you need to have a proper immigration law in place. Just welcoming millions of people in the hope that there will be a select few engineers in the bunch is incredibly stupid. Virtually every study now shows that the majority of migrants will in all likelihood be on benefits for the foreseeable future.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #777 on: November 02, 2015, 02:40:21 PM »

Letting more young people in so that they can pay for the old people, even if it worked in the short term (which it's not clear it will, again, immigrants having a high unemployment rate) is a bad long term strategy. All those young people are going to become old themselves people one day. Then you have to let even more young people in. Then you really do run into problems of overpopulation.
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swl
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« Reply #778 on: November 02, 2015, 03:09:11 PM »

Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, so we're not talking about increasing the population here: stabilizing it would be good enough.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #779 on: November 02, 2015, 03:14:53 PM »

Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, so we're not talking about increasing the population here: stabilizing it would be good enough.

Why is decreasing birthrate inherently bad? Decreasing birthrate almost always goes hand in hand with a country being a nice place to live. High birthrate almost always goes hand in hand with a country being a crap hole to live.

That women give birth just because "that's what people do in society" is not a hallmark of a good society.
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dead0man
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« Reply #780 on: November 02, 2015, 03:38:28 PM »

The fear, I think, is that there will be millions of unfilled jobs when the tail end of the Baby Boomer generation retires.  And not enough health care workers to wipe their ass and take their temperature.  It's not an unfounded fear, but it's probably not going to be as bad as the chicken little's claim.  Japan is in a much worse generationly unbalanced boat than Western Europe, but they are inventing new robots to do the work, not importing millions of poor people and hoping for the best.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #781 on: November 02, 2015, 09:54:07 PM »

The argument "immigration is good for Europe because of the low fertility rate" has been rebutted several times lately, mostly by politicus - for instance here:

This is a deeply flawed argument for a number of reasons, but a few points:

1) Low reproduction rates makes it harder to accept immigration in ethnically defined states, not easier, simply because it changes the ethnic balance more. It is therefore more likely to lead to tighter immigration policies than laxer. Becoming a minority in ones own country over a couple of generations is the primordial fear behind anti-immigration sentiments in Europe.

2) Reproduction rates vary a lot across Europe. 1,7 as in DK is manageable, while 1,1 in parts of Southern Europe isn't. The problem is a sharp drop, not a gradual decline. Making this a continental wide problem is erroneous.

3) You do not need to have a 100% reproduction rate to have a good society. Automatization and a more gradual retirement pattern makes it possible to secure a high standard of living with a gradually declining population.

4) Most Europeans do not want the kind of labour market with low minimum wage and low benefits, that would be required to successfully integrate a large influx of immigrants. Many employers and right wing think tanks love the effect immigration will have on the labour market, but the average voter don't.

5) Europe is a small and densely populated place. Many Europens were looking forward to cashing in a "green dividend" from declining population in the form of less pressure on the environment and infrastructure, more nature, and more available housing. Immigration forces us to retain a "use all available resources to the fullest" model.

Then there is a number of problems related to the type of immigrants Europe attracts:

6) Labour market participation among non-Asian immigrants is low. In fx Sweden this hasn't increased for 15 years. So immigration ends up being a burden on top of the skewed age pyramid, not a solution.

7) Children and grandchildren of immigrants generally do worse in the educational system than "natives". A large group ends up as a permanent unintegrated underclass, which drains the system (this group also has a high crime rate, which is costly).

8 ) There are fewer and fewer unskilled jobs. We already have a large pool of unemployed unskilled workers (many from the ethnic minorities already in Europe). It is generally more sensible to "upgrade" unskilled European workers than receiving immigrants. Youth unemployment is extremely high in several countries.

9) Vocational and technical training in the Middle East and Africa is sub-standard, and this is the groups Europe could use.
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« Reply #782 on: November 03, 2015, 03:29:57 AM »

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-migrant-boy-berlin-20153010-story.html

Wtf
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Beezer
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« Reply #783 on: November 03, 2015, 06:17:14 AM »

Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, so we're not talking about increasing the population here: stabilizing it would be good enough.

I still don't understand the logic behind this. The main concern about the graying of most western societies of course is that it becomes difficult to impossible to finance the pensions system. Now could somebody enlighten me as to how bringing in millions of people with little skills is going to change all of this? They will require government help as well. So essentially you're increasing the burden on the working population even further while, as someone else has mentioned, the people that are coming in right now will want to retire some day as well.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #784 on: November 03, 2015, 01:13:51 PM »

Today Finland's Minister of the Interior announced that, according to the information of the Finnish authorities, the asylum seekers who have recently arrived to Finland include some individuals who have fought in the ranks of ISIS.
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Gunnar Larsson
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« Reply #785 on: November 03, 2015, 06:15:58 PM »

Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, so we're not talking about increasing the population here: stabilizing it would be good enough.

I still don't understand the logic behind this. The main concern about the graying of most western societies of course is that it becomes difficult to impossible to finance the pensions system. Now could somebody enlighten me as to how bringing in millions of people with little skills is going to change all of this? They will require government help as well. So essentially you're increasing the burden on the working population even further while, as someone else has mentioned, the people that are coming in right now will want to retire some day as well.

The logic is that it is much cheaper to make a 20-years old employable than a 0-years old. Even if it takes some years to get a job it will be less than about 20 or so.
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Beezer
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« Reply #786 on: November 06, 2015, 06:48:30 AM »

Hmm, guess it's time for me to find a new homeland. I've always liked Iceland.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #787 on: November 06, 2015, 06:59:45 AM »

Austrians are opposed to border fences, but favour "transit zones" at the borders to Slovenia/Germany where migrants can be registered properly and move on:

Gallup/Ö24

30% in favour of border fences/walls
54% opposed

74% in favour of transit zones
15% opposed

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20151105_OTS0165/oesterreich-umfrage-74-prozent-sind-fuer-transitzonen
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #788 on: November 06, 2015, 07:05:46 AM »

On the other hand, another poll by Unique Research for "Heute" shows Austrians remain deeply sceptical and worried about the huge migrant influx:



"Is the high number of migrants recently a cause for concern and unease ?"

60-40 Yes

"Should Austria take (or let) in ... ?"

 8% more migrants
23% the same amount as now
=> 31% more or same amount
25% fewer than now
35% no more migrants at all
=> 60% less to none

...



1) Who has the best solutions/ideas/policies when it comes to the asylum crisis ?

2) Which measures would be most successful in dealing with the crisis ?

3) Which problems are awaiting us because of the asylum crisis ?

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1230544
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CrabCake
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« Reply #789 on: November 06, 2015, 09:15:25 AM »

Merkel warns that the refugee crisis could inflame the Western Balkans and fan conflict in that region, especially if refugees become mired in these regions.
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Beezer
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« Reply #790 on: November 06, 2015, 10:31:21 AM »

Merkel will use any excuse to not face reality. Shut the door to the EU and the flow will subside right away cause people won't spend €10,000 on a trip that might see them end up where they started in the first place.
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Beezer
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« Reply #791 on: November 07, 2015, 05:36:50 AM »

Sweden says "take our migrants please", Denmark tells them to shut the f up and deal with a problem of their own making. http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=6296336

Sweden Tells Refugees `Stay in Germany' as Ikea Runs Out of Beds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/sweden-tells-refugees-stay-in-germany-as-ikea-runs-out-of-beds

But Sweden, what about your duty to help all the people in the world? I think you simply have to place those refugees in private homes. Anyone that has more than 50 square meters to themselves can surely house a couple of migrants.

BTW, interesting to see how Merkel is now completely isolated across Europe.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #792 on: November 07, 2015, 06:10:03 AM »

But Sweden, what about your duty to help all the people in the world? I think you simply have to place those refugees in private homes. Anyone that has more than 50 square meters to themselves can surely house a couple of migrants.

That was actually a recent proposal from the Greens here...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #793 on: November 07, 2015, 11:11:36 AM »

But Sweden, what about your duty to help all the people in the world? I think you simply have to place those refugees in private homes. Anyone that has more than 50 square meters to themselves can surely house a couple of migrants.

That was actually a recent proposal from the Greens here...

You can clearly see how out-of-touch the Greens have become on this issue ...

Those moral-apostles who want to save the whole world should start taking in 5-10 migrants into their own homes and feed them through by paying for them with their own money (not ours), instead of shoving them down our throats ...
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ingemann
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« Reply #794 on: November 07, 2015, 11:23:19 AM »

Sweden says "take our migrants please", Denmark tells them to shut the f up and deal with a problem of their own making. http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=6296336

Okay I need to ask our Swedish posters; why do the Swedish government do this, it should be obvious that Danish reaction is around as good as Sweden could expect (the rest of EU just ignored the Swedish government), why ask for something you will never get?
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Gunnar Larsson
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« Reply #795 on: November 07, 2015, 12:42:02 PM »

But Sweden, what about your duty to help all the people in the world? I think you simply have to place those refugees in private homes. Anyone that has more than 50 square meters to themselves can surely house a couple of migrants.

That was actually a recent proposal from the Greens here...

Source?
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Gunnar Larsson
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« Reply #796 on: November 07, 2015, 12:51:38 PM »

Sweden says "take our migrants please", Denmark tells them to shut the f up and deal with a problem of their own making. http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=6296336

Okay I need to ask our Swedish posters; why do the Swedish government do this, it should be obvious that Danish reaction is around as good as Sweden could expect (the rest of EU just ignored the Swedish government), why ask for something you will never get?

Beezeer makes it sound like the government is begging Denmark to take the refugees, which is not the case. They have merely highlighted that there are countries beside Sweden and Germany where it is possible to claim asylum.

There is no reason for the Swedish government to support the disgraceful Danish government (and Stöjberg in particular) in their mission to keep Denmark "clean".
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ingemann
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« Reply #797 on: November 07, 2015, 01:19:27 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2015, 02:33:59 PM by ingemann »

Sweden says "take our migrants please", Denmark tells them to shut the f up and deal with a problem of their own making. http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=6296336

Okay I need to ask our Swedish posters; why do the Swedish government do this, it should be obvious that Danish reaction is around as good as Sweden could expect (the rest of EU just ignored the Swedish government), why ask for something you will never get?

Beezeer makes it sound like the government is begging Denmark to take the refugees, which is not the case. They have merely highlighted that there are countries beside Sweden and Germany where it is possible to claim asylum.

I'm sorry to tell you this, the Swedish government may not mean to sound like they're begging, but they do, in a real pathetic way

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First of all, Sweden and its governments are and have been a great help to anybody in Denmark who want to take fewer refugees.

Second we lack the Swedish racialistic political tradition, so our refugee policies are based a mix of humanitarianism (seeing as we're the EU country who take the 4th most refugees per capita) and pragmatism (as we seek to avoid being as big idiots as our easten neighbours).

BTW I asked because I don't get what the Swedish government get out of something which will be a international defeat, do they say this for domestic use or are there another purpose with bringing thi9s up in EU and at Nordic Council?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #798 on: November 07, 2015, 01:41:33 PM »

Do you have a chart of countries by refugees per capita?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #799 on: November 07, 2015, 01:54:20 PM »

Do you have a chart of countries by refugees per capita?

Data is available for the 1st & 2nd quarter of 2015 so far (which was before the massive influx, which happened between August => now):



http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-press-releases/-/3-18092015-BP
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