TRUMP: What the $@&# is going on..

[EliteLX]

So.. really.. we've been ignoring Trump as a serious contender for the nomination for a while. All the betting odds, big-wig predictions, Jeb v Clinton talk.. none of it takes Trump into account. He is taking the GOP by storm it appears.. despite his GE electability being trash.

I know it's early out, but what worries is me is if standing in front of the Republican Party and practically admitting to ruining it in '16 if he doesn't get his way doesn't touch his polls.. what will?

[Blue3]

Welcome to the question everyone has been asking for the last couple months.

He'll need to go against the base on something they care about, that his opponents hammer home, and make Trump seem either completely incompetent (like Palin or worse) or too liberal for them. That's my guess, anyways. But if he can get away with defending single-payer healthcare, the Iran deal, and attacking campaign financing, who knows what it will take.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

My best guess is that "the base" is really, really tired of the same old, same old. The crash and the Great Recession (which still isn't really over for many people) hurt a lot of the Republicans middle-income and lower voters. People who don't want a tool of the 1% or a clone of George Bush, nor a religious zealot, even if they are socially conservative and generally aligned with Republican beliefs. There are candidates in the race who could stand out as something different : Paul, Rubio, Fiorina, and maybe even Christie. But so far they've failed to do so, and even deliberately tried to align themselves with the establishment.

I think that what a decent-sized slice of Republicans want is a candidate who will shake things up (because the Republican status quo isn't working) and maybe even really lead, all without crossing any lines that they really care about. No one but Trump is even close to doing that. No one ultimately cares if he'd be a good candidate or a good President. What they care about is that he's the only one in the correct part of the field.

[Fuzzy Bear]

My best guess is that "the base" is really, really tired of the same old, same old. The crash and the Great Recession (which still isn't really over for many people) hurt a lot of the Republicans middle-income and lower voters. People who don't want a tool of the 1% or a clone of George Bush, nor a religious zealot, even if they are socially conservative and generally aligned with Republican beliefs. There are candidates in the race who could stand out as something different : Paul, Rubio, Fiorina, and maybe even Christie. But so far they've failed to do so, and even deliberately tried to align themselves with the establishment.

I think that what a decent-sized slice of Republicans want is a candidate who will shake things up (because the Republican status quo isn't working) and maybe even really lead, all without crossing any lines that they really care about. No one but Trump is even close to doing that. No one ultimately cares if he'd be a good candidate or a good President. What they care about is that he's the only one in the correct part of the field.

What he said.

If Trump weren't Trump, he might be a truly prohibitive favorite already.  Then again, if Trump weren't Trump, he might have been in George Pataki's shoes, so it's six of one, half a dozen of the other.