Kasich Strategy Idea

[Lyin' Steve]

I think Kasich's best scenario for the nomination would be if Bush competes in Iowa, Kasich publicly does not compete (as Huntsman didn't in 2012), and then Trump wins Iowa.

This way, Walker is out, and Trump has beaten Bush, which shows the establishment that Bush is incapable of stopping the Trump machine.

The establishment is desperate to defeat Trump.  Who are the viable candidates in New Hampshire capable of putting an end to this nonsense?  At this rate, it looks like it's Bush or Kasich.  The establishment throws its lot in with Kasich, and he beats Trump (and Bush) in New Hampshire.

After that, with him already having establishment support from beating Trump in New Hampshire, he will be able to put up strong competition in the gauntlet of southern states against Senator Rubio, while the far-right southern vote is fractured amongst Cruz, Huckabee, Walker, Trump, etc.

I see this as Kasich's best road to victory.  If Walker wins Iowa, then even if Kasich defeats Bush in New Hampshire, the establishment will have no reason to support him, and it will be a four-man race.  No, Kasich has to not just be a winning candidate, he has to be the victorious hero of the establishment who was able to beat Trump where Bush failed.

[Mehmentum]

The main problem with this strategy is that its completely dependent on Bush investing heavily in Iowa.  That's not a strategy, that's hoping your opponent f***s up.

Anyway, no one is expecting Bush to win Iowa.  If Bush is competitive there, the news story will be, "Wow! Bush got in 2nd in Iowa, 6 months ago he was polling in 7th.  What a comeback!"

[Lyin' Steve]

That's a really good point

[Mehmentum]

I find this graph, courtesy of 538, to be a decent representation of the GOP field.  The establishment wing intersects with every other wing in the party, it's central role makes it more influential.  Unless the GOP field goes stays crazy this year, the eventual nominee should be someone combining establishment support with one or two other wings.

So here's Kasich's best strategy:

1.) Secure the Moderate wing (Take out Bush):

Bush and Kasich are both establishment friendly moderates.  They're competing for the same voters and donors.  Christie also occupies that space, but he appears to be going nowhere.  If Bush collapses, Kasich basically has the Moderate wing locked up.  This needs to happen before New Hampshire, Kasich needs all the moderates to win that state.

2.) Win establishment support (Win New Hampshire, hope Cruz, Carson, or Trump wins Iowa):

But just because Kasich is winning moderates, doesn't mean he's won establishment support, there's still Walker and Rubio to worry about.  Currently Rubio is looking like a bigger factor than Walker (though there's time for that to change).  Fiorina could also compete for establishment support.  

If the final two candidates were Kasich and Rubio, then Kasich would obviously lose since the Tea Party and Christian Conservative wings would support Rubio over Kasich.  Kasich needs to avoid that situation.  

If an anti-establishment candidate wins Iowa, and Kasich wins New Hampshire, then Kasich would become the de-facto establishment candidate.  So basically Kasich's best strategy is hope that Trump, Cruz, or Carson wins Iowa, and invest everything on a win in New Hampshire.  He shouldn't under-estimate his opponents in New Hampshire, an establishment conservative could definitely beat him in the state.

3.) Defeat the insurgent candidate(s):
So suppose Kasich can manage to unite the moderates and establishment behind him. does that mean he wins?  Well maybe.  History would suggest yes.  However, a union of the Christian Conservative and Tea Party wing (perhaps behind Cruz?) could create a comparable coalition.  

Anti-establishment sentiment is high, and Kasich could be too far out of the mainstream, so I honestly don't know how a one on one battle with Cruz would turn out.  However, if there is more than one insurgent candidate in the race like in 2012 (lets be honest, it would be Trump), then Kasich has it.

[Torie]

"1.) Secure the Moderate wing (Take out Bush):"

Somebody just typed something that is almost what I typed about 10 minutes ago. Bush needs to go for Kasich to really grow (including in particular his campaign war chest). How perspicacious!

[Likely Voter]

Any Kasich strategy certainly starts with a takedown of Bush. Interestingly, Team Bush is worried a bit. Article today in HuffPo about Bush problems noted this...

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[Bull Moose Base]

So basically Kasich's best strategy is hope that Trump, Cruz, or Carson wins Iowa, and invest everything on a win in New Hampshire.

This is it and basically what he's already trying to do. Actually, he made the FOX debate cut despite ignoring national polling and pouring $ into NH. Bush is basically doing the same thing.

But as I posted in the thread about odds of winning IA and NH, Jonathan Chait just wrote a persuasive comparison of Trump's cultural nativist appeal to that of Pat Buchanan who won NH. Obviously, Trump isn't as fragile a candidate as people thought. He could also win NH.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

The interesting thing, for Bush, is that he must juggle stopping Kasich with boasting about his conservative bonafides so that 70% of the party doesn't hate him. Tough job. If Kasich wins nH, though, then what happens in South Carolina? That would be a bloodbath. Cruz? Trump again? If Bush loses those three, the establishment would drop him like a hot potato for Kasich.

[King]

Guys, Kasich + Bush + Christie right now doesn't even tie Trump. "The Moderate Wing" of the Republican Party isn't big enough to unite into a nominee anymore.