Could the Republicans have won in 2008?
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  Could the Republicans have won in 2008?
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Author Topic: Could the Republicans have won in 2008?  (Read 6558 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2015, 05:11:54 PM »
« edited: September 18, 2015, 05:15:44 PM by Zyzz »

McCain losing in 2008 unfortunately feeds into the meme that only a 'true Conservative' can win elections. McCain was by far the most electable Republican candidate in 2008. He had the maverick war hero reputation, although he had to tone down his maverick status to win the primary.

Clowns like Huckabee and Romney would have gotten blown out worse than McCain did in 2008. Imagine the corporate Bain capital raider Mitt Romney being the face of the party during the economic meltdown? Bush was just absolutely loathed and he was toxic, his approval ratings where similar to Nixon in watergate. I just can't see any Republican winning in 2008 after the disastrous Bush years, it was too easy to paint the nominee a third Bush term.
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sg0508
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« Reply #26 on: September 19, 2015, 09:05:14 PM »

Again, until the Lehman collapse, the race was neck and neck.  That event started the unraveling for Mac.
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DS0816
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« Reply #27 on: September 19, 2015, 11:53:00 PM »

sg0508,

The economic meltdown in September 2008 solidified John McCain losing a Republican hold of the presidency…totally letting even non-analysts know, at that time, the result would be a Democratic pickup to elect Barack Obama the 44th president of the United States.

Wikipedia.org probably has the polls' numbers, nationwide and statewide, for the McCain-vs.-Obama matchup on a timeline.

My memory was that McCain's questionable leads were in part of August and right after the end of the 2008 Republican convention. (The Democratic convention was in the final week of August 2008. The Republican convention was one week later.) The Republican convention's end was between one and two weeks before the meltdown.

By the way: Some of the polls were b.s. This was especially the case with Rasmussen Reports, which didn't show an Obama lead in Ohio until the arrival of October. All other polls were showing the opposite. Rasmussen, clearly untrustworthy, was doing it deliberately. (It actually had the nerve to publish a poll showing McCain with a 10-point lead given George W. Bush's 2004 margin in Ohio was 2.11 to his 2.46 nationwide.)

The reasons why the 2008 incumbent White House party [the Republican Party] couldn't survive their efforts to hold the White House came in the form of George W. Bush. His low-approval numbers were the worst for an incumbent, in a non-incumbent presidential election year, since Harry Truman back in 1952. And that year, just like 2008, resulted in party-flipping of the presidency.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #28 on: September 20, 2015, 07:49:10 AM »

Polling data through the primary process showed McCain as the strongest candidate against any Democrat, and the only one with a chance to beat the Democrats.  This polling data was consistent.

Let's not forget that McCain's image in 2008 was more moderate than it is now.  McCain was the sponsor of McCain-Feingold, and a man friendly toward John Kerry in 2004.  He wasn't the Grumpy Old Man who's a negative partisan then.  He had been the most critical of W over time, and this helped him versus the Democrats.

Any other Republican may well have handed Obama a Dukakis-like defeat.  Romney would have been blamed as just another business hack.  In addition it wasn't just the "Republican Brand" that took a hit; the "Conservative Brand" took a hit as well.  Republicanism and Conservatism were linked and blamed for the wars and financial turmoil, while individual Americans were becoming more socially liberal and less religious.  If there was a candidate who MAY have done better than John McCain in the GE, it MIGHT have been Rudy Giuliani, but even he didn't poll as well against the Democrats as McCain did.
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DS0816
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« Reply #29 on: September 20, 2015, 12:55:51 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2015, 12:59:41 PM by DS0816 »

Polling data through the primary process showed McCain as the strongest candidate against any Democrat, and the only one with a chance to beat the Democrats.  This polling data was consistent.

Let's not forget that McCain's image in 2008 was more moderate than it is now.  McCain was the sponsor of McCain-Feingold, and a man friendly toward John Kerry in 2004.  He wasn't the Grumpy Old Man who's a negative partisan then.  He had been the most critical of W over time, and this helped him versus the Democrats.

Any other Republican may well have handed Obama a Dukakis-like defeat.  Romney would have been blamed as just another business hack.  In addition it wasn't just the "Republican Brand" that took a hit; the "Conservative Brand" took a hit as well.  Republicanism and Conservatism were linked and blamed for the wars and financial turmoil, while individual Americans were becoming more socially liberal and less religious.  If there was a candidate who MAY have done better than John McCain in the GE, it MIGHT have been Rudy Giuliani, but even he didn't poll as well against the Democrats as McCain did.

George W. Hush brought down his Republican Party and helped deliver the nation’s first black president of the United States. A Democratic Party wave including eight Republican-held United States Senate seats also flipped Democratic.

There was no reason, in 2008, to believe the Republicans would hold the White House. Seven years later, with no reason for there to be any confusion, it is laughable for anyone to look back at that year and still believe the Republicans could have won.
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sg0508
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« Reply #30 on: September 20, 2015, 06:41:39 PM »

sg0508,

The economic meltdown in September 2008 solidified John McCain losing a Republican hold of the presidency…totally letting even non-analysts know, at that time, the result would be a Democratic pickup to elect Barack Obama the 44th president of the United States.

Wikipedia.org probably has the polls' numbers, nationwide and statewide, for the McCain-vs.-Obama matchup on a timeline.

My memory was that McCain's questionable leads were in part of August and right after the end of the 2008 Republican convention. (The Democratic convention was in the final week of August 2008. The Republican convention was one week later.) The Republican convention's end was between one and two weeks before the meltdown.

By the way: Some of the polls were b.s. This was especially the case with Rasmussen Reports, which didn't show an Obama lead in Ohio until the arrival of October. All other polls were showing the opposite. Rasmussen, clearly untrustworthy, was doing it deliberately. (It actually had the nerve to publish a poll showing McCain with a 10-point lead given George W. Bush's 2004 margin in Ohio was 2.11 to his 2.46 nationwide.)

The reasons why the 2008 incumbent White House party [the Republican Party] couldn't survive their efforts to hold the White House came in the form of George W. Bush. His low-approval numbers were the worst for an incumbent, in a non-incumbent presidential election year, since Harry Truman back in 1952. And that year, just like 2008, resulted in party-flipping of the presidency.
I still believe Mac had a shot after the RNC when polls were still tight.  People still respected him.  Then, the economic apocalypse just killed him.  Add to that a charismatic challenger, and the rest was foretold.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #31 on: September 22, 2015, 07:41:47 AM »

Yes. If Guiliani had won and ran in 2006, a John McCain/Rudy Guiliani ticket could deliver a heavy challenge to Obama.
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GOP732
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« Reply #32 on: September 22, 2015, 08:19:23 AM »

"The fundamentals of our economy are strong."

-John McCain c. September 2008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaiRC-BeX0Y
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #33 on: September 22, 2015, 12:38:00 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2015, 01:58:21 PM by Stranger in a strange land »

Yes. If Guiliani had won and ran in 2006, a John McCain/Rudy Guiliani ticket could deliver a heavy challenge to Obama.

Read up on Giuliani's 2008 Presidential Campaign, arguably the most embarrassing example of a failed presidential campaign of all time. Giuliani started off as a National Hero who was leading in the polls. He ended as the punchline of a bad joke who had spent $63 million on his campaign to win one (1) delegate.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
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« Reply #34 on: September 22, 2015, 03:49:11 PM »

Yes. If Guiliani had won and ran in 2006, a John McCain/Rudy Guiliani ticket could deliver a heavy challenge to Obama.

I remember in 2008 my mom saying that she would vote third party if McCain chose a pro-choice running mate.  I imagine she wouldn't have been an isolated case.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #35 on: September 22, 2015, 06:36:18 PM »

Yes. If Guiliani had won and ran in 2006, a John McCain/Rudy Guiliani ticket could deliver a heavy challenge to Obama.

Read up on Giuliani's 2008 Presidential Campaign, arguably the most embarrassing example of a failed presidential campaign of all time. Giuliani started off as a National Hero who was leading in the polls. He ended as the punchline of a bad joke who had spent $63 million on his campaign to win one (1) delegate.
You mean the campaign which based its campaign as a third term to an incumbent with approval ratings similar to Obama's current one, and lost it all after they misunderestimated Bush?
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