Bush Vs. Clinton Vs. Sanders

[dudeabides]

Discuss with maps.

My map:

Jeb Bush / Kelly Ayotte (R) 44% 316 EV
Hillary Clinton / JoAquin Castro 35%(D) 189 EV
Bernie Sanders / Dennis Kucinich (I) 20% 33 EV

[Figueira]

No.

[BaconBacon96]

No.

[/]

Bernie Sanders wouldn't spoil like that.

[Higgs]

Why does everybody freak out when there's a thread like this?

Is it so horrible to not click on something you're not interested in?

Anyways, dudeabides map seems like the most likely, although I see Michigan and Pennsylvania going to Jeb and Hillary probably picks Julian over Joaquin

[The Other Castro]

Because these go in the "what if" section.

[bedstuy]

Bernie would never do that.

[Blue3]

Sanders has already clearly promised to not run as anything but the Democratic nominee.

[Kingpoleon]

299 - 233 - 6
Jeb Bush(R-FL)/Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 46.8%
Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Martin Heinrich(D-NM) - 42.3%
Bernie Sanders(G-VT)/Angus King(G-ME) - 7.4%
Other:
3.4%:
Gary Johnson(L-NM)/Tommy Thompson(L-WI) - 2.0%
Robert Barr(C-GA)/Virgil Goode(C-VA) - 0.4%
Rocky Anderson(J-UT)/Thom Hartmann(J-OR) - 0.8%
Other: 0.1%
Placeholder: 0.1%

Sanders runs with a more moderate choice after Warren declines. King, his Senate colleague, maintains Sander's strongholds in the North-East while Sanders focuses on nationwide popular vote turnout. Bush manages to pull out ahead with voter turnout with a great speech by his running-mate at the Convention. Ernst is remembered best for calling for, "The end of the last eight Obama years and a push for the future four Bush years!" Keynote speaker Marco Rubio focuses on the American Dream and helps energize Bush's voters.

_____________________________________________________________

No, Sanders didn't take some of Romney's voters. He merely excelled at voter turnout in likely primary wins in New Hampshire and Iowa.

[Clark Kent]

Wouldn't be surprised if it looked more like this:

[Kingpoleon]

Kucinich is not leaving to run as an independent lol. This map looks so wrong.

... I didn't say he was?

[Kingpoleon]

Kucinich is not leaving to run as an independent lol. This map looks so wrong.

... I didn't say he was?

Dennis Kucinich (I) 20% 33 EV

Sorry, I thought he meant the poster above him, me, not the OP. Thank you.

[madelka]

Inane thread. Sanders won't run as an Independent and he won't pick Kucinich as his running mate.

[DavidB.]

Why do so many people think PA will swing R. It won't.

[Mehmentum]

Hillary Clinton: 49%, 275 EVs
Jeb Bush: 48%, 263 EVs
Bernie Sanders: 3%, 0 EVs

Many people remember the 2000 election debacle with Nader, and combined with Sanders breaking his word on not running, it causes a massive backlash.  While a significant number of liberals do still vote for him (mostly those who are too young to really remember the 2000 election), he only does slightly better than Nader 2000.

Without Bernie Sanders, the election would have been a 2012-esque victory for Clinton.  With Bernie Sanders its a 2000 style squeaker.  Colorado goes into an extended recount, which ends with a very narrow Clinton win.  

Clinton wins Colorado, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine with less than 50% of the vote (Sanders is strongest in New England, and states where more Democrats are white).  Bush wins Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire with less than 50% of the vote.

[DrScholl]

That would allow the Republican nominee to win with a plurality. I don't think it's unrealistic to think that Sanders will run as an independent, he's an independent in the Senate. Even if he doesn't run as an independent, he'd never endorse Clinton.

[Clark Kent]

Why do so many people think PA will swing R. It won't.

In 2012, Pennsylvania went Democratic by a margin of 5.39%, in a year where Obama won by 3.86%. That's only slightly more Democratic than Colorado (5.37%) and less than New Hampshire (5.58%), Iowa (5.81%), Nevada (6.68%), Wisconsin (6.94%), and Minnesota (7.69%). In 2012, it was less Democratic than Georgia was Republican, and its Democratic margin compared to the nation as a whole was just over half of Florida's REPUBLICAN margin the same year. Pennsylvania has also trended more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2008 and 2012.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary Clinton: 49%, 275 EVs
Jeb Bush: 48%, 263 EVs
Bernie Sanders: 3%, 0 EVs

Many people remember the 2000 election debacle with Nader, and combined with Sanders breaking his word on not running, it causes a massive backlash.  While a significant number of liberals do still vote for him (mostly those who are too young to really remember the 2000 election), he only does slightly better than Nader 2000.

Without Bernie Sanders, the election would have been a 2012-esque victory for Clinton.  With Bernie Sanders its a 2000 style squeaker.  Colorado goes into an extended recount, which ends with a very narrow Clinton win.  

Clinton wins Colorado, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine with less than 50% of the vote (Sanders is strongest in New England, and states where more Democrats are white).  Bush wins Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire with less than 50% of the vote.

Jeb wont carry NH or Iowa in a natl campaign

[Famous Mortimer]

Why do so many people think PA will swing R. It won't.

In 2012, Pennsylvania went Democratic by a margin of 5.39%, in a year where Obama won by 3.86%. That's only slightly more Democratic than Colorado (5.37%) and less than New Hampshire (5.58%), Iowa (5.81%), Nevada (6.68%), Wisconsin (6.94%), and Minnesota (7.69%). In 2012, it was less Democratic than Georgia was Republican, and its Democratic margin compared to the nation as a whole was just over half of Florida's REPUBLICAN margin the same year. Pennsylvania has also trended more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2008 and 2012.

Just because votes are evenly matched doesn't necessarily indicate votes are swinging.

PA reliably votes Democratic by a small margin.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Hillary Clinton: 49%, 275 EVs
Jeb Bush: 48%, 263 EVs
Bernie Sanders: 3%, 0 EVs

Many people remember the 2000 election debacle with Nader, and combined with Sanders breaking his word on not running, it causes a massive backlash.  While a significant number of liberals do still vote for him (mostly those who are too young to really remember the 2000 election), he only does slightly better than Nader 2000.

Without Bernie Sanders, the election would have been a 2012-esque victory for Clinton.  With Bernie Sanders its a 2000 style squeaker.  Colorado goes into an extended recount, which ends with a very narrow Clinton win.  

Clinton wins Colorado, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine with less than 50% of the vote (Sanders is strongest in New England, and states where more Democrats are white).  Bush wins Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire with less than 50% of the vote.

Jeb wont carry NH or Iowa in a natl campaign

He might if Bernie is running. I'd imagine that a hypothetical third party Bernie run would do better than its national average in NH (I think that Vermont would be closer as well, if not Sanders's lone win).

[Kingpoleon]

Why do so many people think PA will swing R. It won't.

It might if Sanders rallies ~5-7% of the vote there, and besides which, it can swing GOP.

http://thefederalist.com/2015/06/17/how-the-gop-could-win-pennsylvania/

[All Along The Watchtower]

"Bush vs Clinton vs Trump" would be more likely tbh.

[Mehmentum]

Hillary Clinton: 49%, 275 EVs
Jeb Bush: 48%, 263 EVs
Bernie Sanders: 3%, 0 EVs

Many people remember the 2000 election debacle with Nader, and combined with Sanders breaking his word on not running, it causes a massive backlash.  While a significant number of liberals do still vote for him (mostly those who are too young to really remember the 2000 election), he only does slightly better than Nader 2000.

Without Bernie Sanders, the election would have been a 2012-esque victory for Clinton.  With Bernie Sanders its a 2000 style squeaker.  Colorado goes into an extended recount, which ends with a very narrow Clinton win.  

Clinton wins Colorado, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine with less than 50% of the vote (Sanders is strongest in New England, and states where more Democrats are white).  Bush wins Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire with less than 50% of the vote.

Jeb wont carry NH or Iowa in a natl campaign

He might if Bernie is running. I'd imagine that a hypothetical third party Bernie run would do better than its national average in NH (I think that Vermont would be closer as well, if not Sanders's lone win).

Basically, Iowa and New Hampshire flipped because Bernie Sanders is stronger with white Democrats, which those two states have a lot of.  Meanwhile, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada stayed in Clinton's column because more Democrats there are minorities.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I can't imagine Sanders running as an independent.  He knows he'd be helping Bush, and he doesn't want to be remembered as Nader 2.0.

[Robert California]

299 - 233 - 6
Jeb Bush(R-FL)/Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 46.8%
Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Martin Heinrich(D-NM) - 42.3%
Bernie Sanders(G-VT)/Angus King(G-ME) - 7.4%
Other:
3.4%:
Gary Johnson(L-NM)/Tommy Thompson(L-WI) - 2.0%
Robert Barr(C-GA)/Virgil Goode(C-VA) - 0.4%
Rocky Anderson(J-UT)/Thom Hartmann(J-OR) - 0.8%
Other: 0.1%
Placeholder: 0.1%

Sanders runs with a more moderate choice after Warren declines. King, his Senate colleague, maintains Sander's strongholds in the North-East while Sanders focuses on nationwide popular vote turnout. Bush manages to pull out ahead with voter turnout with a great speech by his running-mate at the Convention. Ernst is remembered best for calling for, "The end of the last eight Obama years and a push for the future four Bush years!" Keynote speaker Marco Rubio focuses on the American Dream and helps energize Bush's voters.

_____________________________________________________________

No, Sanders didn't take some of Romney's voters. He merely excelled at voter turnout in likely primary wins in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Dude! What is with you having abnormally high percentages for third and fourth-nth party tickets? Gah!