IA SoS State Fair Straw Poll Live Results

[Adam Griffin]

THIS IS NOT THE SAME THING AS THE AMES STRAW POLL, WHICH WAS DISCONTINUED EARLIER THIS YEAR - PLEASE READ MY CLARIFICATION/EXPLANATION A FEW POSTS DOWN

https://sos.iowa.gov/statefair.html

I think might generally be more accurate than the previous Ames straw poll, if only because candidates aren't busing people in to vote in it.

As of right now:

DEM:
                     
Clinton   58   50.43%                                          
Sanders   48   41.74%
O'Malley   9   7.83%
Chafee   0   0.00%                     
Webb   0   0.00%

REP:

Trump   87   22.31%
Carson   83   21.28%
Walker   36   9.23%
Bush   33   8.46%
Fiorina   28   7.18%
Huckabee   25   6.41%                                                               
Cruz   18   4.62%
Jindal   18   4.62%
Rubio   18   4.62%
Paul   17   4.36%
Perry   10   2.56%
Kasich   8   2.05%
Santorum   4   1.03%                                          
Graham    2   0.51%                                                                                    
Christie   2   0.51%
Pataki   1   0.26%
Everson   0   0.00%                                          
Gilmore   0   0.00%                                                                                                                     

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Damn Bernie.

#feelthebern

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Republicans really like dumb jokes about politicians during debates, don't they?

[mencken]

I maintain that Jindal will be the Santorum of this cycle.

[Mehmentum]

Interesting that Trump is doing well.  The fact that many of his supporters are going to straw polls indicates that their support of him is more than just name recognition.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Haven't these things been completely discredited after Bachmann's win four years ago?

[The Other Castro]

We won't know how accurate this is until the results for "Favorite Way to Eat Bacon" come in. If "Infused in Chocolate" comes in 1st, we'll know it's legit.

[Adam Griffin]

Haven't these things been completely discredited after Bachmann's win four years ago?

You're thinking of the Ames Straw Poll, which was a huge affair at the Iowa State Fair that occurred in every election from 1980-2012 and was held by the IA GOP. The event brought in a lot of money for the IA GOP historically and was used by candidates as a way to leverage name recognition against potential front-runners. Practically all of the GOP candidates would spend tons of money busing in hundreds, if not thousands, of people to the fair so that they could vote for them in the election. Early this year, however, the IA GOP voted to discontinue the Ames Straw Poll.

This is a poll being conducted at the IA State Fair by the IA Secretary of State, and is for both parties. It does not feature the candidates prominently (stump speaking, for instance) or the inflation/busing in of voters who support specific candidates in order to over-perform in the poll. This poll is just a regular affair by the SoS, sampling people who went to the IA fair of their own volition and without doing so with the intent of supporting a candidate. Because it's merely sampling people who are there randomly and because this state fair is such a huge event that pulls people in from all of the state (and country, to a lesser extent), it has a better chance of being more reflective of the state,

[Adam Griffin]

Interesting that Trump is doing well.  The fact that many of his supporters are going to straw polls indicates that their support of him is more than just name recognition.

Remember, this is a low-key poll being conducted by the IA SoS at the fair and is not the same thing as the Ames Straw Poll that the IA GOP did between 1980-2012. In effect, what we're seeing here is a sampling of normal fair attendees, and I'm unsure whether this poll includes non-RVs.

[Adam Griffin]

#HillaryAboutToBeBelow50
#WebbFinallyGotAVote
#OMalleySurging
#TrumpGrowing
#PatakiSurging
#WalkerFalling

DEMS:                     
Clinton   60   50.00%
Sanders   50   41.67%                     
O'Malley   9   7.50%                                          
Webb   1   0.83%
Chafee   0   0.00%

REPS:
Trump   97   23.21%                        
Carson   87   20.81%
Bush   36   8.61%
Walker   36   8.61%
Fiorina   29   6.94%
Huckabee   25   5.98%
Cruz   22   5.26%   
Jindal   19   4.55%
Rubio   19   4.55%
Paul   17   4.07%
Perry    11   2.63%
Kasich   9   2.15%
Santorum   4   0.96%                     
Christie   3   0.72%
Graham 2   0.48%                                                                                    
Pataki   2   0.48%                                          
Everson   0   0.00%                                          
Gilmore   0   0.00%                     
                                                                                 
                                       

[muon2]

At this point 50% of Dems don't prefer Clinton and over 50% of Pubs prefer someone who has never held office. Fascinating.

[Adam Griffin]

DEMS:
Clinton   63   48.46%                                          
Sanders   57   43.85%
O'Malley   9   6.92%                     
Webb   1   0.77%   
Chafee   0   0.00%
   
REPS:   
Trump   102   23.50%                                 
Carson   88   20.28%
Walker   37   8.53%   
Bush   36   8.29%
Fiorina   33   7.60%
Huckabee   26   5.99%                                       
Cruz   24   5.53%   
Jindal   19   4.38%
Paul   19   4.38%
Rubio   19   4.38%
Perry   11   2.53%   
Kasich   9   2.07%
Santorum   4   0.92%
Christie   3   0.69%                                       
Graham2   0.46%                                                                  
Pataki   2   0.46%
Everson   0   0.00%                                          
Gilmore   0   0.00%                                             
                  
                     
                  
                     

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If Jim Gilmore gets to be in the next debate, then doggone it, Mark Everson better be getting his invite for his equal performance.

[eric82oslo]

Carson go all the way!

[dudeabides]

87 idiots attended this event.

[The Other Castro]

87 idiots attended this event.

Don't you mean 36?

[dudeabides]

87 idiots attended this event.

Don't you mean 36?

Stupid but at least it's not funny.

[Tender Branson]

Sanders overtakes Hilldog, FWIW:

48% Bernie
46% Hillary
  5% O'Malley

https://sos.iowa.gov/statefair.html

Iowa state fair visitors are a very Republican lot it seems:

708 votes cast in the GOP straw poll
257 votes cast in the DEM straw poll

[Adam Griffin]

Bernie takes the lead for the first time & Chafee finally gets a vote; Trump's lead continues to grow, while Fiorina moves to third place.

DEMS:   
Sanders   125   48.08%                  
Clinton   119   45.77%                                          
O'Malley   13   5.00%
Webb   2   0.77%
Chafee   1   0.38%                     

                     

Trump   195   26.97%                     
Carson   128   17.70%
Fiorina   55   7.61%
Bush   50   6.92%
Walker   50   6.92%
Cruz   48   6.64%
Rubio   46   6.36%
Huckabee   32   4.43%
Paul   30   4.15%   
Jindal   25   3.46%                     
Kasich   24   3.32%
Perry   13   1.80%                                          
Santorum   12   1.66%                  
Christie   6   0.83%                                                                        
Graham 5   0.69%
Everson   2   0.28%                                                               
Pataki   2   0.28%   
Gilmore   0   0.00%                                       
                     
                     

[Nhoj]

Poor Jim Gilmore. Also I presume this is open for the entirety? I wonder how long before some candidate discovers it and rigs it.

[Adam Griffin]

Poor Jim Gilmore. Also I presume this is open for the entirety? I wonder how long before some candidate discovers it and rigs it.

Um, Jim Webb had 0 to 2 votes all day yesterday, and within the past hour he has accumulated 3 more. He was also there yesterday (may be today), so he may be buying votes!

[Progressive]

Is this straw poll finished?

[hurricanehink]

If Jim Gilmore gets to be in the next debate, then doggone it, Mark Everson better be getting his invite for his equal performance.

Everson beat Gilmore by 1! Hah

[muon2]

Is this straw poll finished?

No, it will continue throughout the fair, Aug 13-23. There's a press release from the SoS.

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So anyone can stop by and vote, and campaigns can encourage fairgoers to go to the SoS booth and vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Bernie now has a majority.                                          
                     
Bernie Sanders   252   50.91%   
Hillary Clinton   208   42.02%
Martin O'Malley   21   4.24%
Lincoln Chafee   10   2.02%                  
Jim Webb   4   0.81%

Looks like more Democrats are beginning to show up...they now make up roughly 30% of the votes.