With Kinder the likely nominee, I don't see Koster winning. However, I'm surprised Kinder is doing so much better. Is it just better name recognition? (is there a link?)
Everyone is in the 30s, so yes, I think this is name recognition. I can imagine Kinder totally blowing it.
Why do you believe this???
Because Kinder was elected to a position that doesn't really matter (Lieutenant Governor), has a history of corruption and making very damaging statements, and even at that position has never won re-election very convincingly. Kinder has low information name recognition - I doubt he will stay where he is in the face of more impressive candidates like Greitens, Brunner, or even Hanaway.