SC-Gov: Tommy Moore Running for Governor

[Moooooo]

The State:

State Sen. Tommy Moore is the “right kind” of Democrat to beat Republican Gov. Mark Sanford next year if he gets the money, experts say.

Moore certainly has the credentials — 26 years of state legislative experience, an understanding of state government and a moderate to conservative voting record.

“He is the type who can get elected statewide,” says Danielle Vinson, a political scientist at Furman University.

There are some powerful dynamics at work that could make this quite a race. For one thing, Governor Sanford is in such sorry shape that there could be a crowded Democratic primary:

Other Democrats considering a run are Florence Mayor Frank Willis and lobbyist Michael Hollings, son of former U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings.

The dynamics make it a great target for Democrats:

“This is a state election, straight out,” notes Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen, a GOP activist.

Democrats tend to fare better in such elections.

“Republicans can’t tie the national party label around their neck. It won’t stick,” says College of Charleston professor Bill Moore.

Republicans are much more open to voting Democratic in state elections.

And Sanford is hurting with his base and may be unable to create enough excitement to win:

As governor, he has rubbed many the wrong way with his antics and behavior. He has failed as a negotiator.

“Obviously, there is a disconnect between the members of the General Assembly and the governor,” says professor Moore.

Sanford also is not a good stump campaigner. He doesn’t excite. [...]

But some Republicans may quietly spread the word among constituents that they could live with Moore as governor.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Old news.
Different thread with a link to a different article.

[WalterMitty]

yawn.

the democrats were going to beat demint too.

[Keystone Phil]

yawn.

the democrats were going to beat demint too.

Haha. Yeah, I liked that one. The best was their Erskine Bowles argument.

Sanford will be re-elected with over 55% of the vote.

[No more McShame]

26 years of state leg experience?  There's a point where being a legislator a long time begins to hurt.  Just ask John Kerry or Bob Dole.

[Moooooo]

Old news.
Different thread with a link to a different article.

Whoops.  Sorry, Ernest.  I was hoping you would post on this topic too.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A Sanford / Moore race will have a considerably different dynamic than the DeMint / Inez race.

1. 2006 will be State race with few national implications as far as most South Carolina voters are concerned.  To the extent that it is seen as a stepping stone  for a Sanford 2008 Presidential race, it will hurt Sanford, not help him.  The voters reasonably enough decided in 2004 that national politics should be the deciding factor in a US Senate race.

2.  Sanford’s pet idea, PPIC, is not being well received here.  We had national funding come into play in 2004  for a vacant State Senate seat that focused on the education issue.  The Democratic candidate (Sen. Lourie)  won in a district that had been held by a Republican.  Vouchers and tax credits are not a winning issue in South Carolina and the more Sanford tries to push PPIC, the worse he will do.

3.  Our economy is stagnant at present and is showing little sign of improvement.  Statewide, unemployemt as whole is 6.8% (third worst in the nation) as of March 2005 and slightly worse than a year earlier despite the general improvement nationwide in that time frame,  Even worse for Sanford, most of that increase has been in the Republican counties, not the Democratic ones, and those Democratic counties are still way above the State average.  Unless that economic picture changes between now and 2006, the economy will hurt not help Sanford.

4. Sanford has been ineffective as Governor.   Sanford can’t point to anything he’s actually done as Governor.  He’s spent too much time talking and not enough doing.  He has been more interested in fighting than working with the GOP controlled State Assembly.  The Assembly knows Sen. Moore, so support from the GOP members of the Assembly is likely to be tepid and pro forma at best.

In short, there are plenty of weaknesses that Moore can exploit.  Will they be enough, possibly.  Moore probably is the strongest experienced candidate the Dems can run in 2006, and if the Dems are going to win it will be because the voters favor steady experience over Sanford’s youthful exuberence.  A Democratic victory in the 2006 Governor’s race is possible, but not likely at present, but only because Moore is Democrat and Sanford is a Republican.  If they were both in the same party, Sanford would be toast.  If their party labels were reversed, Sanford would be badly burnt toast.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting fact: the last time any party won a second term in Gubernatorial election in the Deep South was 1999.

[A18]

Which is not a long time at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which is not a long time at all.

In many ways it's a very long time. And 1999 was an exception to the rule in many ways (running a black candidate against a white incumbent in Louisiana maybe isn't a brilliant idea...)

Before the 1994 MidTerms the Democrats held (IIRC) all but one Gubernatorial "seat" in the Deep South.
Afterwards, they held just one.

Before the 1998 MidTerms the GOP held all but one. Afterwards they held just two, and one of those was lost in 1999.

Before the 2002 MidTerms the Democrats held all but one.
Now they hold just one.

[AuH2O]

blah blah blah Sanford will easily win. Approval numbers good, he's a solid politician that people generally like, well, outside Columbia. Which, aside from the problems it causes in attaining things like "achievements," helps him.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

blah blah blah Sanford will easily win. Approval numbers good, he's a solid politician that people generally like, well, outside Columbia. Which, aside from the problems it causes in attaining things like "achievements," helps him.

Just wait until ads start blasting him as a do-nothing Governor.  That will bring his poll numbers down, not enough by itself to make him lose, but it wil be enough to knock Sanford out of contention for the 2008 Presidential nomination.  With front-loaded early primaries, November 2006 is too late to start the necessary preparations for a successful Presidential campaign unless like Gov. Bush in 2000, you are the annointed candidate of the party brass.  If Sanford worries about anything other than reelection before November of next year, he’ll be a one-term governor whose political career will be as dead as Beasley’s.

Of course, that isn’t the only possible way Sanford’s possible Presidential aspirations can get clobbered.  If Lt. Gov. Bauer manages to win the GOP nomination for a second term, I’d say he’s likely to lose if the Dems put up a credible candidate.  I doubt if the GOP would be happy to see a GOP governor with a Dem Lt. Gov. run for President.

In short, Sanford will actually have to run a campaign in 2006 if he wants to win, not just put his name on the ballot; we may be a Republican State, but we’re not that Republican.