Will the winner in 2016 be a one-term president?

[Yelnoc]

Regardless of who wins, do you think the winner in 2016 is likely to be a one-term president or not? I say yes. We're likely to have a recession between 2016 and 2020 (they tend to strike 7 to 11 years after the previous one, which ended in 2009). If a Democrat wins, that will be 12 years of Democratic presidents. If one of these Republicans wins, I can't imagine their politics playing well to the 2020 electorate (consider demographic change).

What do you think?

[ElectionsGuy]

If the Democrat wins its much more likely, but its kind of useless to predict at this point.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Only if a Democrat wins in 2016

[CadetCashBoi]

It all depends on the economy. The situation in Europe could get ugly.

[Skill and Chance]

Currently thinking likely yes, due to likely recession between 2018-20.

[/]

Nawwww

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

What is this I don't even

If it is a GOPer; yes it will be a 1 termer. If Hilary is elected, she has electoral strength in CO and NV to be reelected. And redistricting will only reaffirm that.

[m4567]

It's been said the recession ended in 2009, but didn't truly end until 2011. That's when unemployment started going down and jobs picked up, albeit slowly.

We're probably due for a one-termer, but it's hard to beat a sitting president They have to be really bad (Hoover/Carter) or have just enough things go against them (Bush 1).  Truman won because Dewey ran the worst kind of campaign.

If Hillary wins, a recession and slight party fatigue will make her a one-term president.

[Mr. Morden]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

What is this I don't even

If it is a GOPer; yes it will be a 1 termer. If Hilary is elected, she has electoral strength in CO and NV to be reelected. And redistricting will only reaffirm that.

Yes, she will be saved by redistricting that doesn't happen until two years after her reelection.

[Higgs]

Maybe, if Hillary wins then I lean towards yes but if its a non controversial republican than probably no.

[Skill and Chance]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

What is this I don't even

If it is a GOPer; yes it will be a 1 termer. If Hilary is elected, she has electoral strength in CO and NV to be reelected. And redistricting will only reaffirm that.

Yes, she will be saved by redistricting that doesn't happen until two years after her reelection.

Well, she could be saved in 2020 by the lack of reapportionment.  With near certainty, these D states adding to 270 EV would collectively lose at least one seat to the R states in 2021:

[Leinad]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

May I ask, how does redistricting effect Presidential elections? They don't change state borders every 10 years, just congressional district borders.

[Figueira]

It's impossible to say for sure, but I think there's a somewhat higher chance of No (regardless of who wins), so that's how I voted.

[Yelnoc]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

May I ask, how does redistricting effect Presidential elections? They don't change state borders every 10 years, just congressional district borders.

Pretty sure he means reapportionment of electoral votes.

[Mr. Morden]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

May I ask, how does redistricting effect Presidential elections? They don't change state borders every 10 years, just congressional district borders.

Pretty sure he means reapportionment of electoral votes.

Either way, it doesn't matter.  There will be no reapportionment nor redistricting between now and 2020, since the census itself doesn't happen until that year.

[Yelnoc]

If it is Jeb; yes, but Hilary, no. The 2020 redistricting will give her enough strength with Latinos & minority voters; to allow to hold two of 3 states to win; OH, CO & NV.

May I ask, how does redistricting effect Presidential elections? They don't change state borders every 10 years, just congressional district borders.

Pretty sure he means reapportionment of electoral votes.

Either way, it doesn't matter.  There will be no reapportionment nor redistricting between now and 2020, since the census itself doesn't happen until that year.

Well sure, I think Leinad was just confused on the wording more generally.

And anyway, the reapportionment will likely shift more EV's from Democratic to Republic strongholds (e.g. the south) then not.

[The Mikado]

Larry Sabato's take on reapportionment. (I know that's not what this thread was originally for, but let's face it, that's what this thread is now)

Oregon gaining a seat might be interesting.

As West Virginia loses seats and relevancy, maybe Democrats here will stop mourning that the party isn't competitive there anymore?

[Yelnoc]

Aw, I was hoping Georgia would gain an elector. I guess growth in the Atlanta metro has slowed too much for that. Not that slowing growth is a bad thing, by any means. Now we just have to figure how to condense our suburbs....

[Bigby]

Looks like Yankeedon continues to shrink while the Southeast and Southwest continue to grow.

[Mister Mets]

Well, since Biden is apparently considering a promise to only run for one term...





Seriously, there may be a nearly 50/50 possibility of a one-termer. If Hillary wins, Democrats will hold the White House for three terms and the tendency of parties to lose votes the longer they stay will go against her. A Republican will enter the presidency during a partisan time when demographics are against the party and any Democratic opponent is guaranteed about 45%.

[TarHeelDem]

Nah, Hillary will mount a successful reelection campaign.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

It pretty much all depends on when the next recession is, so it's anybody's guess, really.

[The Other Castro]

I'd say it's about a 51% chance right now.

[madelka]

Yes. The Democrats will get slaughtered in 2018 and in 2020 by Whites and Hispanics.