A senator/governor born 1970 or later will mostly likely be President in 2024... (user search)
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  A senator/governor born 1970 or later will mostly likely be President in 2024... (search mode)
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Author Topic: A senator/governor born 1970 or later will mostly likely be President in 2024...  (Read 2624 times)
Blue3
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« on: August 05, 2015, 07:00:16 PM »
« edited: August 05, 2015, 07:27:29 PM by Blue3 »

With some exceptions, Presidents are usually elected in their late 40's or early 50's.

A lot of the post-Hillary talk (assuming Hillary is elected and re-elected President) seems to fail to take this into account.

Obama was relatively young when elected President, historically speaking. And he was born in 1961. For someone to be the same age in 2024 that Obama was in 2008, they would need to be born in 1977. And Obama wasn't the youngest-ever President. Bill Clinton, John Kennedy, Teddy Roosevelt, and Ulysses Grant were younger.

Meaning that, when we get to 2024 (SIXTEEN YEARS after Obama was first elected), the Presidential nominee is likely to be born in 1970 or later. (Somebody born in 1970 in 2024 would be 54 years old... so I don't think people can really say being born after 1970 for the 2024 elections would be too young...)

There's always the exception, if someone very charismatic comes along, or someone who would break barriers, or someone with a lot of experience but who could still excite voters... but that would be unlikely.

So, who are the current Democratic Senators born in 1970 or later?

Democratic Senators born 1970 or later...

1. Martin Heinrich
2. Brian Schatz
3. Chris Murphy

That's it. (Kirsten Gillibrand was born 5 years after Obama and would be 58... not terribly old, but more likely to be too old by then, and if Hillary is just leaving office after 8 years there might not be that much excitement for her)

Republican Senators?

1. Joni Ernst
2. Ted Cruz
3. Marco Rubio
4. Mike Lee
5. Ben Sasse
6. Cory Gardner
7. Tom Cotton

A few more. Two are already running for President now.


As for Governors...

Democrats:
1. Gina Raimondo

That's it.

Republicans:
1. Bobby Jindal
2. Nikki Haley

That's it, too.


Now, it's certain that many more politicians born 1970 or later will be elected in the future. But probably the latest one of those can be elected for the first time, and run for President, is 2020 (following the Obama model) and even that is pushing it. That leaves two elections... 2016 and 2018. If Hillary is elected in 2016, as expected, then 2018 will probably be another wave year for the Republicans.

So here's is probably the most-reliable list of people who could be elected President in 2024, even if it's somewhat incomplete (though it might not be as incomplete as some would think). I'd say there's a much greater than 50% chance that the person elected President in 2024 is mentioned in this post.
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Blue3
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2015, 11:43:38 PM »

Any thoughts?
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Blue3
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2015, 11:19:46 AM »

Isn't there a decent chance that whoever is elected in 2024 will just be the incumbent president (first elected in 2020)?  It's hardly guaranteed that the person elected next year is going to last two terms.

Well I said in the second sentence that this is assuming Hillary has two full terms.
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