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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  A senator/governor born 1970 or later will mostly likely be President in 2024...
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Author Topic: A senator/governor born 1970 or later will mostly likely be President in 2024...  (Read 2519 times)
Blue3
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« on: August 05, 2015, 07:00:16 pm »
« edited: August 05, 2015, 07:27:29 pm by Blue3 »

With some exceptions, Presidents are usually elected in their late 40's or early 50's.

A lot of the post-Hillary talk (assuming Hillary is elected and re-elected President) seems to fail to take this into account.

Obama was relatively young when elected President, historically speaking. And he was born in 1961. For someone to be the same age in 2024 that Obama was in 2008, they would need to be born in 1977. And Obama wasn't the youngest-ever President. Bill Clinton, John Kennedy, Teddy Roosevelt, and Ulysses Grant were younger.

Meaning that, when we get to 2024 (SIXTEEN YEARS after Obama was first elected), the Presidential nominee is likely to be born in 1970 or later. (Somebody born in 1970 in 2024 would be 54 years old... so I don't think people can really say being born after 1970 for the 2024 elections would be too young...)

There's always the exception, if someone very charismatic comes along, or someone who would break barriers, or someone with a lot of experience but who could still excite voters... but that would be unlikely.

So, who are the current Democratic Senators born in 1970 or later?

Democratic Senators born 1970 or later...

1. Martin Heinrich
2. Brian Schatz
3. Chris Murphy

That's it. (Kirsten Gillibrand was born 5 years after Obama and would be 58... not terribly old, but more likely to be too old by then, and if Hillary is just leaving office after 8 years there might not be that much excitement for her)

Republican Senators?

1. Joni Ernst
2. Ted Cruz
3. Marco Rubio
4. Mike Lee
5. Ben Sasse
6. Cory Gardner
7. Tom Cotton

A few more. Two are already running for President now.


As for Governors...

Democrats:
1. Gina Raimondo

That's it.

Republicans:
1. Bobby Jindal
2. Nikki Haley

That's it, too.


Now, it's certain that many more politicians born 1970 or later will be elected in the future. But probably the latest one of those can be elected for the first time, and run for President, is 2020 (following the Obama model) and even that is pushing it. That leaves two elections... 2016 and 2018. If Hillary is elected in 2016, as expected, then 2018 will probably be another wave year for the Republicans.

So here's is probably the most-reliable list of people who could be elected President in 2024, even if it's somewhat incomplete (though it might not be as incomplete as some would think). I'd say there's a much greater than 50% chance that the person elected President in 2024 is mentioned in this post.
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Blue3
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2015, 11:43:38 pm »

Any thoughts?
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mencken
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2015, 02:10:26 pm »

Let's consider where the recent nominees have been 9 years prior to the election:
Mitt Romney2003: Newly-elected Governor of Massachusetts
Barack Obama1999: State senator
John McCain1999: Arizona Senator; running for President
John Kerry1995: Massachusetts Senator
George W. Bush1991: son of President
Al Gore1991: Tennessee Senator; failed Presidential candidate
Bob Dole1987: Senate Minority Leader; running for President
Bill Clinton1983: Governor of Arkansas
George Bush1979: Former CIA director; running for President
Mike Dukakis1979: Former Governor of Massachusetts

So yes, it does seem that it is likely that the 2024 winner would be one of the names you spot if you took a sieve of all the current Senators and Governors that would be within a plausible age range (Just a coincidence that the only three "unknowns" on that list ended up winning it all). Further, there is a good possibility that the 2024 winner is a candidate for President right now; or would be running for President if Hillary were not.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2015, 12:26:42 pm »

Let's consider where the recent nominees have been 9 years prior to the election:
Mitt Romney2003: Newly-elected Governor of Massachusetts
Barack Obama1999: State senator
John McCain1999: Arizona Senator; running for President
John Kerry1995: Massachusetts Senator
George W. Bush1991: son of President
Al Gore1991: Tennessee Senator; failed Presidential candidate
Bob Dole1987: Senate Minority Leader; running for President
Bill Clinton1983: Governor of Arkansas
George Bush1979: Former CIA director; running for President
Mike Dukakis1979: Former Governor of Massachusetts

So yes, it does seem that it is likely that the 2024 winner would be one of the names you spot if you took a sieve of all the current Senators and Governors that would be within a plausible age range (Just a coincidence that the only three "unknowns" on that list ended up winning it all). Further, there is a good possibility that the 2024 winner is a candidate for President right now; or would be running for President if Hillary were not.
It's also worth noting that many of the last elections have been won by the candidate who entered major office last.

That's been the case in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012.
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mencken
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2015, 06:03:05 pm »

Let's consider where the recent nominees have been 9 years prior to the election:
Mitt Romney2003: Newly-elected Governor of Massachusetts
Barack Obama1999: State senator
John McCain1999: Arizona Senator; running for President
John Kerry1995: Massachusetts Senator
George W. Bush1991: son of President
Al Gore1991: Tennessee Senator; failed Presidential candidate
Bob Dole1987: Senate Minority Leader; running for President
Bill Clinton1983: Governor of Arkansas
George Bush1979: Former CIA director; running for President
Mike Dukakis1979: Former Governor of Massachusetts

So yes, it does seem that it is likely that the 2024 winner would be one of the names you spot if you took a sieve of all the current Senators and Governors that would be within a plausible age range (Just a coincidence that the only three "unknowns" on that list ended up winning it all). Further, there is a good possibility that the 2024 winner is a candidate for President right now; or would be running for President if Hillary were not.
It's also worth noting that many of the last elections have been won by the candidate who entered major office last.

That's been the case in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012.

Also based on that list, the median half of ages were between 45 and 56. Thus, I think the criterion should be expanded to include names born after 1959. Expanding this criteria adds notable individuals such as Booker, Gillibrand, Baldwin, Klobuchar, and Bullock for the Democrats and Walker, Ducey, Sandoval, Christie, Martinez, Pence, Ayotte, Tim Scott, Paul, Flake, and Thune for the Republicans.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2015, 10:34:42 pm »

If Hillary is elected, the ages of presidents post-primary reform: 52, 69, 64, 46, 54, 47, 69. More over 60 than under 50. So who knows?
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mencken
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2015, 11:35:30 pm »

If Hillary is elected, the ages of presidents post-primary reform: 52, 69, 64, 46, 54, 47, 69. More over 60 than under 50. So who knows?

A bit presumptuous, considering two of the three most likely Republican candidates are under 50.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2015, 08:58:30 pm »

If Hillary is elected, the ages of presidents post-primary reform: 52, 69, 64, 46, 54, 47, 69. More over 60 than under 50. So who knows?

A bit presumptuous, considering two of the three most likely Republican candidates are under 50.
There is still probably a better than even chance the next President will be over 60.

Democrats have a decent chance of winning, and the top Hillary alternatives are old.

Jeb Bush and John Kasich are potential Republican nominees in their sixties.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2015, 10:46:49 pm »

Isn't there a decent chance that whoever is elected in 2024 will just be the incumbent president (first elected in 2020)?  It's hardly guaranteed that the person elected next year is going to last two terms.
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Blue3
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2015, 11:19:46 am »

Isn't there a decent chance that whoever is elected in 2024 will just be the incumbent president (first elected in 2020)?  It's hardly guaranteed that the person elected next year is going to last two terms.

Well I said in the second sentence that this is assuming Hillary has two full terms.
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