2016: A Total Mess

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: So, a bit of news there, but nothing big has been called yet. I guess the most significant thing we know is that Carson is leading in North Carolina. Does that surprise any of you?

Todd: No. I think what we are seeing is that the idea of North Carolina being competitive on the presidential level was just a result of what really was just a freak accident in 2008. Democrats just don't have the votes to win in North Carolina at the presidential level. I think even if Chafee was not in the race they would still lose it. It may be possible to elect a Democratic Senator or Governor there, we can't rule that out. But the presidency is just not in play there. North Carolina has certainly shifted from the landslide margins Bush carried it by, but it's not Ohio by any stretch of our imagination and we really should expect Carson to win.

Robinson: And while Biden's campaign never conceded the state by any means, there has been a sense in the final days that their focus was elsewhere. But the bottom line is that they don't need North Carolina to keep Carson under 270. They need to win a place like Ohio or Virginia, where they have been working very hard. Colorado will be crucial to watch later in the night, as well as Pennsylvania. Many swing states are mostly still voting, all of the states where Chafee has a real chance are still voting. This is going to be a long night, and we honestly shouldn't be expecting to have any clue what is going on at this point in the night.

Hall: Biden's goal, you know, isn't just to keep Carson under 270, he expects to get that number himself. And if you assume Chafee is competitive in Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and so on , having North Carolina, or Georgia for that matter, as a state you are carrying would really help. Now, if Biden pulls out Florida he's fine. But all indications are that Carson will win the state of Florida. What this means is that Biden is really relying on the states of Ohio and Virginia. Even if he loses one of those states, he's in a tough spot in terms of getting to 270 based on where we expect Chafee and Carson to do well. And if he loses both of them, Carson would then be very close to 270 and would probably be likelier than not to get there from the remaining competitive states. And he's struggling in both of those states right now.

Vohra: And he's struggling in both of those states because the people are frustrated with the establishment. Biden is the only one of the three major candidates tonight that is a total shill for the establishment. Sure, he campaigned hard against the Clinton dynasty, but other than that he is totally in the tank for the DNC. The fact that Biden is struggling to win in Vermont means that the Chafee candidacy is very strong and will keep Biden, the worst of the three candidates, from reaching 270 electoral votes.

Maddow: All right. Over to Steve Kornacki. What are we looking for in the critical state of Ohio?



Kornacki: Some critically important areas in the state of Ohio. We're looking here at what happened in the last presidential contest, where President Obama narrowly defeated Mitt Romney. You see clearly where Obama won it, he won it in the northern area of the state, especially in Cuyahoga County. Biden will win Cuyahoga County, the challenge will be to repeat Obama's success in the closer northern counties, and keep up the margin in Franklin county in the center of the state. Hamilton county in the southwest is significant, Biden does not have to win it to win the state, but Carson definitely has to. Also key to a Carson victory in the state is running it up in the coal country counties in the eastern part of the state and holding Lake county in the north, which Romney barely carried last time. Let's go over to North Carolina now.



We've pulled up the 2014 senate map here as it was a closer race than 2012 president and really demonstrates how Biden would pull off a surprise victory in the state. It really depends on key turnout in Mecklenburg and Wake Counties. He needs to keep up this performance here in the northeastern part of the state and win the southeastern counties that Hagan won last time. A win would also require pulling in the counties in the lightest shade of red, that only barely went for Tillis and keeping the margins down enough in the rural areas of the state. Rachel, back to you.

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Maddow: And we now have a call in the state of Vermont. We project that in the state of Vermont, Vice President Joe Biden is the winner. That's the first state Biden has carried tonight. He now has 3 electoral votes to 33 for Carson.

6% in: Biden 49%, Chafee 31%, Carson 18%, Others 2%
Final: Biden 47.4%, Chafee 33.9%, Carson 16.4% , Others 2.3%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: It's 8:00 on the east coast of the united states, and we have just had a giant batch of poll closings. If you are in line to vote in any of the following places, you must be let in to vote. We will give you all of the calls we can make right now.

First off, in the state of Missouri, we project that the winner is Ben Carson!

Missouri (Final Results)

Carson: 48.3%
Biden: 35%
Chafee: 16%
Other: 0.7%

In the state of Massachusetts, we project that the winner is Joe Biden. Chafee will place second in Massachusetts.

Massachusetts (Final Results)

Biden: 48%
Chafee: 30%
Carson: 20%
Other: 2%

In the state of Alabama, we project that Ben Carson is the winner.

Alabama (Final Results)

Carson: 51.6%
Biden: 30.4%
Chafee: 17%
Other: 1%

In the state of Maryland, Joe Biden is the winner.

Maryland (Final Results)
Biden: 51.4%
Carson: 26.5%
Chafee: 20.5%
Other: 1.6%

In the state of Oklahoma, where Chafee is not on the ballot, Ben Carson is the winner.

Oklahoma (Final Results)
Carson: 67.6%
Biden: 32.4%

In the state of New Jersey, Joe Biden is the winner, with Chafee placing second.

New Jersey (Final Results)

Biden: 47.4%
Chafee: 32%
Carson: 20%
Other: 1%

In the state of Illinois, Joe Biden is the winner.

Illinois (Final Results)

Biden: 46.9%
Carson: 34.2%
Chafee: 16.9%
Other: 2%

In the District of Columbia, Joe Biden is the winner, with Chafee placing second.

District of Columbia (Final Results)

Biden: 77.4%
Chafee: 15%
Carson: 6%
Other: 1.6%

In the Maine 1st District, worth 1 electoral vote, Joe Biden is the winner, with Chafee placing second. We have no projection for the overall state of Maine or the second congressional district.

ME-01 (Final Results)

Biden: 50.2%
Chafee: 36.9%
Carson: 11%
Others: 1.9%

Now, on to the states where we cannot make any projections. In Florida, it is too close to call between Biden and Carson.

Florida (46% in):

Biden: 41%
Carson: 38%
Chafee: 20%
Other: 1%

In Pennsylvania it is too close to call between Biden and Carson.

In Mississippi, it is too early to call, but Carson is in the lead.

In Tennessee, it is too early to call, but Carson is in the lead.

In New Hampshire, it is too close to call between all three candidates.

New Hampshire (5% in)

Biden: 35%
Chafee: 33%
Carson: 30%
Other: 2%

In Delaware, it is too early to call, but Biden is in the lead.

In Connecticut, it is too early to call, but Biden is in the lead.

In Rhode Island, it is too early to call, but Chafee is in the lead.

Here's the latest results from states left uncalled in earlier hours:

North Carolina (15% in)

Biden: 43%
Carson: 40%
Chafee: 16%
Other: 1%

Virginia (20% in)

Carson: 46%
Biden: 35%
Chafee: 18%
Others: 1%

Georgia (9% in)

Carson: 50%
Biden: 32%
Chafee: 17%
Other: 1%

Ohio (7% in)

Biden: 52%
Carson: 32%
Chafee: 15%
Other: 1%

Here's the new electoral map. Biden now has 62 electoral votes to 59 for Carson.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Let's now look at the senatorial races. First off, in Florida, we project that Republican David Jolly will replace the retiring republican Marco Rubio.

Jolly(R): 58%
Grayson(D): 38%
Other: 4%

In Alabama, we project that Republican Richard Shelby has been re-elected.

Shelby (R): 63%
Griffith (D): 36%
Other: 1%

In Oklahoma, Republican James Lankford has been re-elected.

Lankford (R): 66%
Johnson (D): 34%

In Missouri, it is too early to call, but Republican Senator Roy Blunt is in the lead.

In Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire it is too close to call.

New Hampshire (5% in)

Hassan (D): 57%
Ayotte (R): 41%
Other: 2%

In Maryland, Democrat Donna Edwards will replace retiring Democrat Barbara Mikulski

Edwards (D): 56%
Rutherford (R): 43%
Other: 1%

In Connecticut, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal has been re-elected.

Blumenthal (D): 62.7%
Kudlow (R): 36%
Other: 1.3%

Here are the latest numbers from the senate races left uncalled earlier.

North Carolina (15% in):

Ross (D): 51%
Burr (R): 47%
Others: 2%

Ohio (7% in):

Strickland (D): 60%
Portman (R): 37%
Others: 3%

Indiana (30% in):

Stutzman (R): 50.2%
Hill (D): 48.2%
Other: 1.6%

Here's the new senate map:

Democrats: 39
Republicans: 36

For the gubernatorial races, we project that the Democrats have held Delaware with Democrat John Carney replacing Democrat Jack Markell.

Carney (D): 58%
Bonini (R): 41%
Other: 1%

In New Hampshire it is too close to call between Democrat Stefany Shaheen and Republican Chris Sununu. With 5% of the vote counted:

Shaheen (D): 57%
Sununu (R): 41%
Other: 2%

In Missouri it is too close to call between Democrat Chris Koster and Republican John Brunner. Here are the latest numbers from Indiana, North Carolina, and Vermont.

Indiana (30% in):

Pence (R): 49.8%
Gregg (D): 48.2%
Other: 2%

North Carolina (15% in):

Cooper (D): 54%
McCrory (R): 45%
Other: 1%

Vermont (12% in):

Smith (D): 50%
Scott (R): 45%
Other: 5%

That gives us this map:

Republicans: 28 (+1)
Democrats: 11
Independents: 1

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: So, Mr. Vohra, that Rhode Island characterization. Too early to call, but Chafee has a lead.

Vohra: Well, it's certainly encouraging, but honestly we expected to win Rhode Island, so it's not a surprise by any stretch of the word. I am thrilled though that we are giving Biden a challenge in Connecticut. We did not expect to have the possibility of winning Connecticut tonight, and even if we don't get all the way there, the fact that it is a close race is excellent. New Hampshire looks promising, Maine looks promising. We are dragging down Biden's electoral vote count and that is crucial if we are going to deadlock the election. And you look at Tennessee and Mississippi, those states not being called yet, that is a testament to the strength of our campaign. No, we're not winning Tennessee or Mississippi, but we did put some money into Montana, into the 2nd district in Nebraska, in those final days just to see if it went anywhere, and this is a sign that maybe we do have a shot in those areas.

Todd: And the other place the southern struggle if you will could mean something is in Carson's chances in Virginia. That is an incredibly close state that could really decide whether or not the election is deadlocked, it is a must win for Carson to deadlock the election if Biden carries Florida and Ohio, both of which he is leading in right now, and if you don't mind me saying this, Mr. Vohra, if Carson does not carry Virginia, and that is the state that puts Biden across 270, there will be a lot of blame coming the libertarian party's way, rightly or wrongly, that they prevented the republican party from carrying the state of Virginia.

O'Donnell: Well, if blame is thrown that way, it's going to be thrown totally wrongly. We know what the two way polls say, if Chafee was not in the race Mr. Biden would be winning tonight by five or six percentage points. Carson should be thanking Chafee for giving him a chance in Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado.

Maddow: So, the characterization in Delaware. Too early to call, but Biden has a lead. A fact that I think has been ignored too much this election is that Delaware is Biden's home state. Is he actually beatable in his home state?

Matthews: I doubt it. I honestly doubt it. I know Chafee has put in a lot of resources there in the final weeks and held several events, and I want to give all the credit I can to you, Mr. Vohra, for setting up a strong organization, getting ballot access in 49 states and all, but Delaware is one victory that isn't going to happen tonight. Aside from Mitt Romney who was from a state that was from the totally wrong part of the political spectrum for him to win, every serious presidential candidate of the last 50 plus years with the exception of McGovern has carried their home state. Biden will carry Delaware, Carson won't carry Maryland because of its political stance but isn't placing third there, and Chafee will carry Rhode Island. Enough said.

Vohra: I just want to highlight Matthews's admission that Chafee is going to carry Rhode Island. History is being made here, Folks. The last time a third party candidate carried a state was 1968, and that was a complete racist running. Before that, 1948 and another racist. Chafee is going to be the first non-racist third party candidate since 1924 to carry a state, and he should carry multiple states.

Maddow: All right. Let's go over to Steve Kornacki now. What are we looking for in the set of critical states that just closed?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kornacki: So this is what happened in Pennsylvania four years ago, and it's not what Carson wants to happen tonight, if he is actually going to carry this state. He needs to carry the two middle counties that went for Obama, win some of these eastern suburban counties that Romney lost, and hold on to the two that Romney only barely won. Also, look for Chafee to win a few rural counties or perhaps the suburbs of Allegheny. On to connecticut.



This is what happened in the connecticut governor's race in 2014, and it sort of shows what a close race would look like tonight. Look for Carson to carry Litchfield county in the northwest corner there. The two other Foley counties would go for Chafee. If it gets really close, or Chafee wins, then Biden would lose the two counties that were very narrow for Malloy, and probably the easternmost darker blue county as well. Let's look at some real votes coming in in the state of Virginia.



22% in: Carson 46, Biden 35, Chafee 18

So, this map doesn't tell us a ton right now. No real surprises yet. I guess the one thing to point out is the votes we have coming in from Henrico County. This is a county that voted for George W. Bush when he won the state in 2004, you see it going for Biden with 5% of the vote in. So a minor concern for Carson that that county, at least so far, is not going for him with the influence of the Chafee vote. But what is going to decide this race is northern virginia - Prince William, Loudoun, Fairfax, Alexandria, and Arlington counties. Nothing from any of those places yet. The other place to watch is Virginia Beach county in the southeast and the two counties immediately west of it. Let's look at Florida.



53% in - Biden 40, Carson 39, Chafee 20

So, most of the polls closed in Florida at 7:00 Eastern, so a lot of the vote has already come in. Let's dive into the three big democratic counties in the south. Palm Beach - 65% of the vote is already in. But in Broward, only 30% of the vote is in. In Miami Dade, 47% of the vote is in. So a lot of vote left down here. On the other hand, all of the counties with nothing in yet should go for Carson, and we still have half of Duval County left. Also, Carson is leading in Hillsborough County and Flagler county with some vote still left there. Biden's lead in Volusia County is interesting to say the least, but that could flip back over the course of the night. In the middle here, still 20% of the vote left in Orange County, but Osceola is all in. A significant annoyance for Biden right now is that Chafee is carrying the traditionally democratic county of Jefferson - that's why that county is in yellow. Monroe County is also typically democratic, that is going for Chafee as of now. Franklin County, also going for Chafee, is typically republican. Chafee's % may tick up a bit between now and the end of the night, and it is looking like a very close contest for first between Biden and Carson, in a state that could be the decider in terms of whether an electoral college majority is reached tonight. Rachel?

Maddow: A significant projection coming in now. We project that Ben Carson is the winner in the state of Georgia. 16 electoral votes for Carson.

15% in: Carson 51, Biden 30, Chafee 18, Other 1
Final: Carson 44, Biden 36, Chafee 19, Other 1

Carson: 75
Biden: 62

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: And with the polls closing in Arkansas, we call that state for Ben Carson.

Carson: 51%
Biden: 32%
Chafee: 16%
Other: 1%

Carson: 81
Biden: 62

We also have a senate call to make in Arkansas. Republican John Boozman wins re-election.

Boozman(R): 57%
Eldridge(D): 40%
Other: 3%

Democrats: 39
Republicans: 37

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Let's now talk to the retiring senator from the state of Florida, Marco Rubio. Good evening, Senator.

Rubio: Good evening.

Maddow: Of course, as expected, your seat was held by the party. A very quick call on that race. Your reaction to that?

Rubio: Well, it's no surprise. Alan Grayson was not a candidate that represented the key values of the state of Florida. He ran an extremist campaign for the democratic nomination for Senate, then ran that same extremist campaign in the general election. This is a sanity moment in american politics, when one party just tries to see how far to its extreme it can possibly go, and the electorate says "Nope. Not that extreme." and the party readjusts. Florida isn't Alabama, but it's voting like Alabama at the senate level tonight because the Democrats nominated someone who is fundamentally anti-american for that race.

Maddow: Alan Grayson is anti-american?

Rubio: Well, his socialist viewpoints are fundamentally against the core of america. Let's dispel with this fiction that the free market is somehow bad. The fact is america was founded on capitalism and will always remain capitialist no matter what the democratic party thinks. Socialism is against every wish the founding fathers had for this nation. It stifles the american dream at its very core. And Alan Grayson embraced it during his campaign, right down to his support of Bernie Sanders in the democratic primaries. He is a fundamentally anti-american candidate, and that's why he lost.

Maddow: What do you think will happen at the presidential level in Florida?

Rubio: I think Carson's going to come out on top. We have every reason to believe that once the panhandle vote comes in more, it will swamp whatever vote there is in the three major democratic counties and hand that state to the republican party. And ultimately, Carson will likely find a path to an electoral majority tonight. I think he carries Pennsylvania. And if that happens, then Biden has to sweep Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado if he is to keep Carson from reaching 270, and that's not going to happen in a scenario where we're carrying the state of Pennsylvania.

Robinson: Senator, this is Eugene Robinson. Do you have a future in elected office when you leave the senate in January.

Rubio: It's impossible to know what is going to happen 4 or 8 or 10 years from now. But I never intended politics to be my career, and I'm going to enjoy being a private citizen. Look, I would have loved to be president of the united states and I gave it everything I had. But ultimately after losing the Nevada caucus there was not a path forward for me. The american people made their choice, and their choice is for Ben Carson, who is a great nominee for our party. And it is really disparaging how democrats have tried to distort his medical practice, his love for this country, his understanding of what this country needs for its future. Let's dispel with this fiction that the democrats have created in that Ben Carson is somehow going to be a bad president. He's not. He's going to be the modern reincarnation of Ronald Reagan the moment he walks in the door.

Robinson: So no run for governor in 2018?

Rubio: I wish people would stop asking that question. I've been very clear that I'm looking forward to returning to the private sector and am not a career politician. That doesn't necessarily mean I will never run for office again. But I don't get out of one office and then start looking around for a new political job. That culture needs to change in this country. Politics is not a lifelong career.

Hall: Senator, this is Tamron Hall. Why do you think Chafee is polling nearly 20% in your state, some of it from voters who normally vote republican?

Rubio: Well, that's one of the great questions of this election. But I think the answer lies in the fact that Washington has failed this country, and people want real change. But Chafee has no coherent political ideology, and Biden is a picture of Washington. Carson does not fall under either of those categories and he's going to bring real change to this country.

Maddow: All right, thanks for your time Senator.

Rubio: Thanks for having me.

Maddow: Lester Holt has the latest from our exit polling. Lester?

Holt: Yeah, we're looking at the motivation that drove voters to the polls today, and look at these numbers. Among those who voted for Joe Biden, 62% said it was a vote for Biden's policies, and 38% said it was a vote against another candidate's policies. Among Carson supporters, 68% said it was a vote for Carson's policies, 32% a vote against the other candidates. But look at the Chafee supporters. Only 43% of them voted for Chafee because of his policies, 57% voted for him as a vote against the other candidates. This night, which is looking like a good night for Chafee so far, is based on the american desire for change. It's not based on widespread support for libertarian-leaning policies.

Also, I want to look at this question from the Connecticut exit poll. The final RCP average for that state showed Biden up about 9 percentage points. But it could be very competitive tonight. We asked Chafee voters who indicated they voted for Obama in 2012 their chief reason for why they split from the party this time. The dominant answer? Take a look:

Want change from Washington - 35%
Support Chafee's policies - 32%
Support Chafee's opposition to political correctness - 22%
Liberal Policies of Governor Dan Malloy - 11%

That's right, fifty seven percent cited either opposition to Washington or opposition to political correctness as their reason for being an Obama/Chafee voter. Much more than those who actually supported Chafee's policies or wanted to disassociate themselves from their state's very liberal governor.

Maddow: All right. We've got two important calls to make. We project that Carson will win in the state of Tennessee, and we project that Chafee will win in the state of Rhode Island. Yep, that's right, at this time, 8:41 on the east coast, we project that Chafee will win in the state of Rhode Island. Chafee has now officially become the first third party candidate to win a state since George Wallace in 1968, and the first to win a northeastern state since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912.

Tennessee (9% in)

Carson: 45%
Biden: 33%
Chafee: 21%
Other: 1%

Final:

Carson: 44%
Biden: 33%
Chafee: 22%
Other: 1%

Rhode Island (16% in)

Chafee: 47%
Biden: 36%
Carson: 14%
Other: 3%

Final:

Chafee: 45%
Biden: 37%
Carson: 16%
Other: 2%

Carson: 92
Biden: 62
Chafee: 4

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: We return, and we can now project the state of North Carolina for Ben Carson. 15 electoral votes for Carson.

44% in: Carson 42, Biden 41, Chafee 16, Other 1
Final: Carson 45, Biden 37,  Chafee 17, Other 1

Carson: 107
Biden: 62
Chafee: 4

Also, in Connecticut we had previously characterized the race as too early to call but with a Biden lead. We are now re-characterizing the race as too close to call between Biden and Chafee.

Connecticut (23% in)

Chafee: 38%
Biden: 34%
Carson: 26%
Other: 2%

Let's now go to Chris Jansing, who is with the Biden campaign. Jansing, what's the mood like there?

Jansing: They are remaining as confident as possible. They understand that this northern support that Chafee is getting is dragging them down in terms of a path to 270, but they believe at the end of the night they will emerge victorious in the states of Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and in both congressional districts in Maine. Ultimately they feel that there is a decent chance that Rhode Island is Chafee's only victory tonight. They know that New Mexico and Minnesota will be tight, but they remain hopeful that they can pull off victories in both of those states. As far as the traditional swing states go, they are confident they will carry both Ohio and Virginia. They expect to lose Florida, and there are doubts about Iowa and Colorado, but ultimately they don't think they'll need any of those states to get over 270.

Maddow: So they are not concerned that the Chafee vote could result in a Carson victory in either Ohio or Virginia?

Jansing: They understand that the possibility is there, but ultimately they don't see it happening. Same thing with Pennsylvania. This is a campaign that remains confident it has a path to victory, and is very optimistic about what they can hold Chafee to.

Maddow: Any reaction to Connecticut being at least closer than expected?

Jansing: Their internal numbers always showed connecticut to be closer than the public polling showed it to be, and they say they ran ads in the final days to keep up their position in that state. They aren't expecting a call there any time soon, but they are confident they are going to win.

Maddow: All right, thanks for that. Well, we'll have to see, but I have to say every sign has been that Minnesota at least is a likely Chafee victory.

Matthews: What you saw there was a campaign that's trying to have the best possible outlook. They wanted to force a close race in North Carolina and Georgia, but it didn't happen. We'll see what happens in Mississippi, but I doubt it. Ultimately if they are struggling in Connecticut and Pennsylvania I wouldn't  put too much confidence in New Hampshire or in the 2nd congressional district in Maine.

Vohra: And as for Minnesota, the libertarian party is going to get the last laugh there. There is just no way it is even plausible that Chafee would do so well in the northeast that this network was not able to call vermont immediately and he doesn't win Minnesota. Minnesota was always the best state for him in polls after of course, Chafee's home state of Rhode Island, in terms of how close Chafee was to a victory. The ticket is going to win in Minnesota, and if Biden is going to reach a majority tonight, and I still don't think he will, he's going to have to do it without Minnesota and I think without New Hampshire as well.

Maddow: Well, Matthews, you mentioned the 2nd congressional district of Maine, good thing you specified that, because we are now ready to project the 2 electoral votes for the statewide vote of Maine and also the state of Delaware for Joe Biden. Earlier we projected the first congressional district of Maine for Biden. Still no projection on the second congressional district of Maine.

Delaware (36% in)

Biden: 41%
Chafee: 35%
Carson: 22%
Other: 2%

Final:

Biden: 40%
Chafee: 36%
Carson: 22%
Other: 2%

Maine At-Large (22% in)

Biden: 42%
Chafee: 36%
Carson: 20%
Other: 2%

Final:

Biden: 41%
Chafee: 36%
Carson: 20%
Other: 3%

Carson: 107
Biden: 66
Chafee: 4

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9:00 PM EST



Maddow: It is 9:00 on the east coast of the united states, and we have just had a huge batch of poll closings. Let's go through all of the calls we can make right now.

In Louisiana, Ben Carson is the projected winner.

Carson: 50%
Biden: 32%
Chafee: 17%
Other: 1%

In Texas, Ben Carson is the projected winner.

Carson: 47.6%
Biden: 31.4%
Chafee: 20%
Other: 1%

In New Mexico, it is too close to call between Biden and Chafee.

In Arizona, it is too early to call with a Carson advantage. Remember, under AZ state law, no results will be reported until an hour from now.

In Colorado, too close to call between Biden and Carson.

In Kansas, Ben Carson is the projected winner.

Carson: 55.2%
Biden: 29.8%
Chafee: 14.2%
Other: 0.8%

In Nebraska, we can project the entire state for Ben Carson along with the first and third congressional districts, for four electoral votes. No call yet on the second congressional district and its one electoral vote.

NE At-Large:

Carson: 53.5%
Biden: 31%
Chafee: 14.4%
Other: 1.1%

NE-1:

Carson: 46.4%
Biden: 34%
Chafee: 18.5%
Other: 1.1%

NE-3:

Carson: 62.1%
Biden: 28%
Chafee: 9.2%
Other: 0.7%

In Wyoming, Ben Carson is the projected winner.

Carson: 65%
Biden: 20%
Chafee: 14.5%
Other: 0.5%

In North Dakota, Ben Carson is the projected winner. Chafee gets 2nd place.

Carson: 52%
Chafee: 26%
Biden: 20%
Other: 2%

In South Dakota, Ben Carson is the projected winner. Chafee again gets 2nd place.

Carson: 51%
Chafee: 27%
Biden: 20%
Other: 2%

In Minnesota, it is too early to call, but Chafee is in the lead.

In Wisconsin, it is too early to call, but Biden is in the lead.

In Michigan, Biden is the projected winner.

Biden: 43%
Carson: 34%
Chafee: 21%
Other: 2%

In New York, Biden is the projected winner. Chafee places 2nd.

Biden: 53.4%
Chafee: 26%
Carson: 17%
Other: 3.6%

Let's look at the latest returns from states left uncalled in earlier hours:

Mississippi (2% in)

Carson: 46%
Biden: 36%
Chafee: 17%
Other: 1%

Florida (81% in):

Carson: 39.7%
Biden: 39.3%
Chafee: 20%
Other: 1%

Virginia (47% in):

Carson: 45%
Biden: 36%
Chafee: 19%
Other: 1%

Ohio (25% in):

Biden: 46%
Carson: 38%
Chafee: 15%
Other: 1%

Pennsylvania (3% in):

Biden: 43%
Carson: 34%
Chafee: 21%
Other: 2%

Connecticut (28% in):

Chafee: 38%
Biden: 34%
Carson: 26%
Other: 2%

New Hampshire (26% in):

Chafee: 35%
Biden: 33%
Carson: 31%
Other: 1%

ME-2 (30% in):

Biden: 40%
Chafee: 38%
Carson: 20%
Other: 2%

Here's the electoral map. Carson is at 172 electoral votes, Biden is at 112, Chafee has 4.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: On to the Senate now. In Louisiana, it is too early to call. Republican Senator Charles Boustany, Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Landry, Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy, and Democratic State Rep. Karen Petersen all competing in the state's so called "jungle primary". If no one reaches 50%, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates.

In Arizona, also too early to call. Senator McCain has the early advantage over his democratic challenger Ann Kirkpatrick.

In Colorado, Democratic Senator Michael Bennet has been re-elected.

Bennet (D): 57%
Blaha (R): 40%
Other: 3%

In Kansas, Republican Senator Jerry Moran has been re-elected.

Moran (R): 60%
Wakefield(D): 39%
Other: 1%

In South Dakota, Republican Senator John Thune has been re-elected.

Thune (R): 60%
Sutton (D): 38%
Other: 2%

In North Dakota, Republican Senator John Hoeven has been re-elected unopposed.

Hoeven(R): 100%

In Wisconsin, it is too early to call, but Democrat Russ Feingold is in the lead.

In New York, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer has been re-elected.

Schumer(D): 60%
Astorino (R): 37%
Other: 3%

In North Carolina, we now project that Republican Senator Richard Burr has been re-elected.

50% in: Burr(R) 50, Ross(D) 49, Other 1
Final: Burr 51.4, Ross 46.7, Other 1.9%

And in New Hampshire, we now project that Democrat Maggie Hassan will defeat Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte. This is the first democratic gain of the night. We are getting reports from New Hampshire that many female voters looked very angry as they left the voting booth, espousing in loud tones that they had just voted for Hassan.

26% in: Hassan 52, Ayotte 45, Other 3
Final: Hassan 50.7%, Ayotte 47, Other 2.3%

Here are the latest returns from the uncalled races.

Missouri (2% in):

Blunt (R): 56%
Kander (D): 40%
Other: 4%

Illinois (17% in):

Kirk (R): 58%
Duckworth (D): 40%
Other: 2%


Indiana (57% in):

Stutzman (R): 49.5%
Hill (D): 48.9%
Other: 1.6%

Ohio (25% in):

Strickland (D): 53%
Portman (R): 45%
Other: 2%

Pennsylvania (3% in):

Fetterman (D): 53%
Toomey (R): 46%
Other: 1%

That gives us this map:

Democrats: 42 (+1)
Republicans: 40

On to Governor. Republicans hold North Dakota.

Wrigley(R): 57%
Purdon (D): 42%
Other: 1%

Here are the latest returns from the uncalled races:

Missouri (2% in):

Brunner(R): 53%
Koster (D): 42%
Other: 5%

Indiana (57% in):

Pence (R): 49.6%
Gregg (D): 48.8%
Other: 1.6%

North Carolina (50% in):

Cooper (D): 52%
McCrory (R): 46%
Other: 2%

Vermont (52% in):

Scott (R): 48%
Smith (D): 47%
Other: 5%

New Hampshire (26% in):

Shaheen (D): 51%
Sununu (R): 47%
Other: 2%

That gives us this map:

Republicans: 29 (+1)
Democrats: 11
Independents: 1

We have one other call for you right now, and that is an overall call on the house of representatives. We are ready to project that the republicans have maintained their majority in the house of representatives.

[libertpaulian]

Bump.  Continue please!

[Heisenberg]

Bump.  Continue please!

I love this timeline. Wulfric never fails to impress. I plan to write more timelines in the future (such as one where Trump defeats Clinton as I hope happens).

[libertpaulian]

***BUMP***

[libertpaulian]

bump again

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, at some point I will get back to this.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Because I have no great interest in doing the rest of this properly, and want the "freedom" to start up my long-planned "What if ObamaCare had failed to pass?" TL once I get Democratic Revival through the 2020 cycle, I am going to post the final results of the election.

Carson 268; 38.4%
Biden 244; 39.2%
Chafee 26; 20.2%
Others 0; 2.2%

With no one receiving a majority in the EC; the vote goes to congress. The House ended up retaining republican control; 232-202*. On the first ballot, Carson received only a plurality due to some R majority states selecting Chafee. However, on the second ballot, realizing that Chafee did not have the support to win the presidency, these states went over to Carson, and he won the presidency as a result.

Senate Results:

This resulted in a 52-48 democratic senate majority. However, with Baron Hill (D-IN), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) being supporters of Chafee's campaign, the democrats did not have the votes to vote in Manchin as VP. The republicans, not having a majority, also did not have the votes to vote in Martinez as VP. The consitution prevented the senate from selecting Ventura, and so the senate was initially deadlocked, and Carson was sworn in as president alone on Jan. 20. However, in Mid-February, with Carson's blessing, the senate and house sent a constutional amendment to the states that would allow the senate to select Ventura as VP. The amendment was approved in less than a month. Ventura was then selected as VP with the support of 72 senators, and was sworn in on March 18th. The Carson/Ventura administration would prove to be fairly popular, and would go on to be re-elected in 2020.

---------------------
Other Tidbits:


Governor Results:

Republicans: 32 (+1)
Democrats: 17
Independents: 1

---------

* Despite her repeated pledges to resign if re-elected to the house, DWS refused to actually drop out of her house race, and so got re-elected 52%-48% in her extreme partisan hack district. In a final "screw you" to the democratic party, she actually showed up for the opening session of the new congress on January 3, and cast a vote in support of Cathy McMorris Rodgers's re-election as house speaker. The next day, she resigned. A few weeks later, she moved to Scotland on a permanent basis. Alone.

- The libertarian party earned major party status in every state except for Oklahoma (where Chafee was not on the ballot), leading to actual prominence. In 2018, a libertarian was elected to the U.S. House to replace Retiring Rep. Steve Pierce. In 2020, 5 libertarians were elected to the U.S. House. Things only got better for the party from there.

- Interim DNC chair Howard Dean declined to remain chair long-term. After an intense intraparty battle, Former Virginia Rep. Tom Perriello was chosen to be the next chair of the DNC.