Recent elections if the U.S. had a draft

[Agonized-Statism]

The announcement of the draft divides public opinion, and by 2004, Bush's approvals are where they were in 2006 IOTL with the momentum behind anti-war candidate Howard Dean. Either Dean wins the nomination outright or Kerry has to make concessions. In any case, the Democrat wins and ends the draft. The housing bubble bursts soon enough and Republicans run someone in 2008 who very clearly doesn't support reinstating the draft- so basically not John McCain.

As much as 9/11 rallied Americans, you would need a more credible threat to get the WWII-style war effort the PNAC people hoped for. Maybe there would be more mileage out of it if Al-Qaeda went with the original plan to target nuclear power plants, but the need for a large standing army would be questioned nevertheless. If the justification is to win Iraq quickly, I don't see how more troops would eliminate sectarian conflict in time for the election. And if the justification is to have enough troops to invade a third country- likely Iran- they've probably already lost Middle America. The opposition wouldn't even have to run against the whole War on Terror if it was inconvenient, it's widely known that terrorism is better dealt with by a smaller and more professional military and the draft could easily be attacked as inefficient.