Post random maps here

[Skill and Chance]

2016: Warner/Hassan (D) vs. Rubio/Fallin (R)

Obama Approval: 49%
Unemployment: 6.2%
2016 GDP Growth: 2.9%

Rubio/Paul 262 (49.3%)
Warner/Hassan 276 (48.7%)

2020: Warner/Hassan (D) vs. Rubio/Toomey (R)

Warner Approval: 39%
Unemployment: 8.9%
2020 GDP Growth: -0.4%

Rubio/Toomey 361 (53.6%)
Warner/Hassan 177 (44.9%)

[Skill and Chance]

Yay! Romney wins. Republicans steal.

What exactly is being stolen?  Romney got more votes in this scenario.

Also, wouldn't Romney encourage the House Republicans in MI, WI, OH, PA and NJ to vote for Obama to avoid 2014 fallout?  He already has the magic 26 states without them.

I also can't see the AZ Dems sticking their necks out like that with no chance of being the deciding vote for Obama.

[Skill and Chance]

2016

Clinton/Warner 402 (55.8%)

Cruz/Paul 136 (42.9%)

2020

Clinton/Warner 347 (52.1%)

Capito/Hoeven 191 (46.4%)

2024

Warner/Hassan 272 (48.1%)

Cotton/Walker 266 (50.3%)

*Assume this is still an EV/PV split scenario after reapportionment*

2028

Cotton/Tim Scott 54.2%

Warner/Hassan 44.4%

[Skill and Chance]

Now that Grimes has dropped out in my current timeline, I can post this map that I love.

2020

Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes / Frmr. Senator Joe Donnelly - 270
Frmr. Vice President Scott Walker / Senator Tim Scott - 268

That looks close to the most geographically compact winning map possible.  Replacing CA with some Midwestern states is about all you could do to make it smaller.

[Skill and Chance]

Narrow R win, circa 2025:

Narrow D win, circa 2040:

[Skill and Chance]

2016

Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner 54.6% 390 EV
Ted Cruz/Pat McCrory 43.9% 148 EV

2020

Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner 50.2% 323 EV
Rand Paul/Mary Fallin 48.4% 215 EV

[Skill and Chance]

2016

Christie/Walker 303 (50.4%)
Clinton/Warner 235 (48.9%)

2020

Warren/Heinrich 396 (55.7%)
Christie/Walker 142 (42.4%)

2024

Warren/Heinrich 479 (60.1%)

Capito/Hoeven 59 (38.8%)

[Skill and Chance]

R 275-263
What would cause this?

Demographic change catches up with the Deep South.  The Republican candidate moderates on social issues and immigration.  As a result, the Evangelical base stays home while swing voters go heavily R.

[Skill and Chance]

2008 without the financial crisis:

Obama 291 (50%)/McCain 247 (48%)

Toughest calls were OH, VA and whether Obama gets 60% in CA.

[Skill and Chance]

Sometimes it skips a generation:

Gov. Jason Carter/Sen. Amy Klobuchar 290 (50.3%)
Pres. Chris Christie/VP Scott Walker 248 (48.0%)

[Skill and Chance]

Georgia Governor Jason Carter / Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin - 272 (48.91%)
President Christopher Christie / Vice President Susana Martinez - 266 (49.09%)






Christie has a VERY bad term

Georgia Governor Jason Carter / Kentucky Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes - 327 (50.87%)
President Christopher Christie / Vice President Susana Martinez - 211 (48.21%)

Nice, but Christie would never become president here because you have Carter winning the electoral college both times.

[Skill and Chance]

FTR, in 2020 we will use the current electoral map. The result would be 295-243.

Oops... yes, it would still be the current apportionment in 2020.  But I get 291/247 with current EVs.  Among the Carter states, MN, IL, MI, NY, and RI lose 1 each, while NC, FL, CA and VA gain one each to offset 4 of the 5 lost, right?

[Skill and Chance]

2016: Goldwater 2.0

Clinton/Warner 448 (60.2%)
Cruz/Haley 90 (37.9%)

2020: Getting the Message

Martinez/Toomey 309 (51.7%)
Clinton/Warner    229 (47.1%)

[Skill and Chance]

That's a really weird Baldwin map considering Iowa has gay marriage and Ohio doesn't!

[Skill and Chance]

Clinton/Brown: 323 (50.9%)

Paul/Walker: 212 (47.4%)

Clinton/Brown: 281 (49.7%)

Rubio/Toomey: 257 (48.6%)

Sandoval/Ayotte: 296 (50.3%)

Newsom/Klobuchar: 242 (48.0%)

Sandoval/Ayotte: 325 (51.4%)

Klobuchar/Booker: 213 (46.7%)

I could definitely see something like this happening.  I assume you mean Sherrod Brown, not Jerry because of Ohio deciding the 2020 election?

[Skill and Chance]

Kerry: 277 (50.1%)

Bush: 261 (48.7%)

-- possible future timeline.

A Kerry win in retrospect would be the best thing that could ever happen to modern Republicans.  Sort of like Cleveland finally sneaking through at just the wrong time in 1892.  Unless Kerry could unilaterally avoid/mitigate the financial crisis, which I doubt.

[Skill and Chance]

2016

Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Mark Warner (D-VA) 49.11% 299 EV
Paul Ryan (R-WI)/Rob Portman (R-OH) 49.08% 239 EV


Warren trails throughout the campaign until a video of Ryan condemning social security and medicare as "the two gravest mistakes our country has ever made" surfaces in late September.  Ryan appears to have won the popular vote until several weeks after the election and WI flips in a recount.

Closest States

WI
48.87%/48.85%

CO
48.6%/48.5%

PA
49.7%/48.9%

IA
50.0%/49.0%

VA
50.3%/48.6%

OH
50.5%/48.2%

FL
50.7%/48.0%


2020 

Pres. Elizabeth Warren/VP Mark Warner 56.1% 402 EV
Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Rand Paul (R-KY) 42.6% 136 EV

The grassroots take control of the primary this time, but the result is an Ike-level win for Warren in a relatively strong economy.  The House also flips to the Democrats for the first time since 2008.

[Skill and Chance]

The Election of 2092- Extreme Climate Change Scenario

Isabel Martinez (TX-GOV)/Calvin Brown (IL-SEN)  56.7% 390 EV
J. A. "Jeff" Kearney (MI-GOV)/Sarah Fitzpatrick (CT-GOV)  42.5% 148 EV

Thoughts?   

[Skill and Chance]

The Election of 2092- Extreme Climate Change Scenario

Isabel Martinez (TX-GOV)/Calvin Brown (IL-SEN)  56.7% 390 EV
J. A. "Jeff" Kearney (MI-GOV)/Sarah Fitzpatrick (CT-GOV)  42.5% 148 EV

Thoughts?   

Good lord!

Basically the Southwest would become like the Solid South of the early 20th century due to the unending drought (and yearly hurricanes in FL).  Chicago becomes the largest city due to migration out of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.  Eventually someone offers a "Newer Deal" for them to keep the lights on and the water flowing (in this world President Martinez) and from that point on the remaining residents of AZ/NM/NV would vote for that party by NY-15 margins.  But the largely unaffected Northeast deeply resents having to fund it, save for MA where migrants from the South have a narrow majority.

[Skill and Chance]

Election of 2096

The Supreme Court upholds the D.E.S.E.R.T. Act, the Flood Relief Act of 2093 and the re-established Civilian Conservation Corps in successive 8 to 7 votes during the spring of 2095.  Relief funds and public works projects flow to the Southwestern and Gulf Coast states.  Chicago and Boston become centers for AI innovation and the economy briskly recovers from the late 2080's depression and agricultural crisis:
 

President Isabel Martinez/Vice President Calvin Jackson 62.7%  529 EV
Sarah Fitzpatrick (CT-GOV)/Matthew X. Chen (WA-SEN) 35.4%  9 EV

2100

Vice President Jackson retires at the end of his term.  But a new advocate for the drought and flood-stricken migrants emerges, from someone confident enough to merge her rival political families:

Alissa Cruz-Warren (MA-GOV)/Nathaniel Morrison (Sec. of the Interior*)  54.1% 334 EV 
Sean G. Feltenheimer (WI-GOV)/Kwame Wood (House Minority Leader**)  45.3% 204 EV
 
*formerly ID-SEN
**Representing PA-02 (downtown Philadelphia)

TBD

[Skill and Chance]

Election of 2104

The story of the 2100 census was the aggressive growth of the Anchorage metro area.  Alaska was now home to more than 8 million people.  Republicans decided early on that their best opportunity to break their 12 year losing streak was to target the South Atlantic states, where locals were growing less enamored with President Martinez's American Future programs 12 years in.  Ultimately, they came up just short: 

President Alissa Cruz-Warren/Vice President Nathaniel Morrison 50.3%  298 EV
Marianne Williamson (TN-SEN)/Arthur J. Cohen (NY-SEN)  48.0%  240 EV

2108- The Sweet Taste of Victory

"And I would like to remind my colleagues Sens. Martin and Velazquez (D-AZ) that I represent more people than they do!"  When Kwame Wood was sworn in as Speaker of the House in January of 2107, he made good on his promise to investigate fraud and corruption in the distribution of American Future funds in the Southwest.  Known as the reformer who broke the back of the Philadelphia machine, he would bring down Sen. Martin, along with the governor of Arizona and Nevada's attorney general.  He was nominated by acclamation at the Republican convention:

Kwame Wood (Speaker of the House [PA-02])/Ken Smith (AK-SEN)  55.8% 402 EV
Vice President Nathaniel Morrison/Erin O'Leary (IL-GOV)  43.2%  138 EV 

[Skill and Chance]

1940: Madam President

Frances Perkins (Sec. of Labor)/Scott Lucas (IL-SEN)  290 EV 43.3%
Wendell Willkie (Businessman)/Charles L. McNary (OR-SEN) 137 EV 41.4%
Vice President John Nance Garner/Walter F. George (GA-SEN) 104 EV 14.3%

FDR declines to seek a 3rd term and endorses Frances Perkins at the convention.  Angered by the snub, Vice President Garner runs as an independent.  He carries most of the South but splits the anti-New Deal vote with Willkie in many important Northern states, allowing Perkins to win with a plurality.

1944:

President Frances Perkins/Vice President Scott Lucas 523 EV 66.9%
Clyde M. Reed (KS-SEN)/Raymond Willis (IN-SEN) 8 EV 29.5%
Walter F. George (GA-SEN)/Allen J. Ellender (LA-SEN) 2.9%

President Perkins pursues the Manhattan Project more aggressively than Roosevelt.  Initially this meant a less effective ground war, with Republicans criticizing Perkins as a weak war leader in what many expected would be a close race.  But her strategy paid off when nuclear weapons were successfully tested in the summer of 1944.  Following a series of attacks, Germany and Japan declare unconditional surrender on September 29th, 1944, officially ending WWII and giving Perkins the largest popular vote victory in US history.

[Skill and Chance]

1948 (After President Perkins)

General Dwight D. Eisenhower/Harry Truman (MO-SEN)  326 EV 52.5%
John W. Bricker (OH-GOV)/J. Strom Thurmond (SC-SEN) 205 EV 46.3%

[Skill and Chance]

2024: The last election under the old alignment

President Brian Sandoval/Vice President Kelly Ayotte 326 EV 52.5%
Cory Booker/Amy Klobuchar 212 EV 46.4%

 

[Skill and Chance]

2028: The First Great Drought strikes

Jason Carter (GA-GOV)/Heidi Heitkamp (ND-SEN) 269 EV 49.3%
Vice President Kelly Ayotte/Tom Cotton (AR-SEN) 269 EV 49.1%

1st House Vote:

Carter 24
Ayotte 23
Tied 3

Carter was fortunate enough to sweep in Democratic congressmen in 3 districts in inner the Atlanta suburbs and in many of the upper Midwestern states his ticket flipped and his winning coalition in 26 states gave him a fighting chance in the House vote.  These 3 new Democrats managed to tied Georgia's delgation 7 to 7.  In the first vote, every congressman held to his party affiliation, leading to 3 ties in GA, VA, and NH, where Anne Kuster still holds NH-02.

2nd House Vote:

Carter 25
Ayotte 23
Tied 2

Acknowledging Carter's 55/42 statewide win (58/39 in his VA Beach district), longtime GOP Rep. Scott Rigell flips his vote.  All others hold the party line.

3rd House Vote:

Carter 26
Ayotte 24

6 Democrats in the 50-50 split Senate offer to support Cotton if the House elects Carter.  After much bickering, the state delegations in the House agree to support their state's winning candidate, electing Carter by 1 vote.  Reps. Rigell, Austin Scott and Anne Kuster brokered the deal.

Senate Vote:

Cotton 56
Heitkamp 44

The Carter/Cotton Administration TBC...