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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Post random maps here (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 986226 times)
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« on: January 03, 2016, 05:10:23 PM »
« edited: January 03, 2016, 09:48:39 PM by tedbessell »

Playing around with the EVC. Not sure the totals are right, may edit later. This could be part of a timeline at some point in the future.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election:


Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton/Ohio Governor Jon Husted: 50.3%, 277 Electoral Votes
Vice President Julian Castro/New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 48.4%, 263 Electoral Votes
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2016, 12:31:14 AM »

Playing around with the EVC. Not sure the totals are right, may edit later. This could be part of a timeline at some point in the future.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
(map)
Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton/Ohio Governor Jon Husted: 50.3%, 282 (+5) Electoral Votes
Vice President Julian Castro/New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 48.4%, 257 (-6) Electoral Votes
I did all the dirty work for you. Accurate EV in bold, #s in parentheses are differences.

Thank you, Peebs. I had adjusted the EVs in the original post, but I was unsure my math was correct.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2016, 09:48:24 PM »



If the EVC had purple, my masterpiece would have been truly complete. Alas, this won't happen anytime soon. It's interesting, though, that although orange isn't available in the calculator you can get it by messing with the url.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2016, 10:10:29 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2016, 10:14:08 PM by tedbessell »



If the EVC had purple, my masterpiece would have been truly complete. Alas, this won't happen anytime soon. It's interesting, though, that although orange isn't available in the calculator you can get it by messing with the url.

Do not fear! Simply access the map URL and replace all of the beginning text up to "AL" with the following:

Code:
https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?type=mock&year=2016&off=0&ev_c=0&ev_p=0&pty=2&

You will (a) be able to access Puerto Rico and (b) be able to use colors such as purple and tan. The color codes are as follows:

0 - Gray
1 - Red
2 - Blue
3 - Green
4 - Yellow
5 - Orange
6 - Purple
7 - Tan
8 - Purplish gray
9 - Purple again (same as 6)
10 - Different shade of tan
11 and everything above - Purple again (same as 6 and 9)
Something that is not a number - White

In order to access Puerto Rico, add this code at the end of your url (fill in blanks with numbers):

Code:
&PR=_;_;_

Here is a map with Maine in purple and Puerto Rico in tan:



The mysteries of Dave Leip's US Election Atlas are infinite.
This is awesome. Thanks.
Seconded. It's a shame that people use MS Paint for multiple colors when they can just screw with the EVC.

EDIT: I will re-post this in the advanced mapmaking thread, as it is conspicuously absent.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2016, 10:43:06 PM »

Okay, folks, get ready. UntilI get bored with this, I'm going to make your eyes bleed Wink



I imagine that this is what an Atlas map would look like if you left it out in the sun for a few days.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2016, 03:04:02 PM »

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/how-congressional-representation-has-changed-over-the-past-50-years/

If current [sic] trends continue,

Incredibly unrealistic, although 70 EV California would be kind of fun.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2016, 08:37:11 PM »


Worst part of that map is Arizona having more EVs than New York, and NY being dwarfed by FL. What happened to NYC and how the heck would Arizonans get their water?!

I think Cali's going to start losing EVs before 2050.

The EV changes in the Sabato thing were 1960-2010, so this is 2010-1960. Let's pretend that NYC sunk into the ocean, because global warming, and Arizonans are using giant solar stills of some kind to suck moisture out of the air.

I agree about Cali. If the drought keeps up, we could start losing much sooner.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2016, 11:03:27 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2016, 11:06:42 AM by Teddy Lee, Bass God of the West »

From the book A Disturbance of Fate: The Presidency of Robert F. Kennedy, by Mitchell J. Freedman.
1968 U.S. Presidential Election:

NY Sen. Robert F. Kennedy/TX Sen. Ralph Yarborough: 50.6%, 341 EVs
Fmr. VP Richard Nixon/MD Gov. Spiro T. Agnew: 43%, 187 EVs
Fmr. AL Gov. George Wallace/Fmr. Gen. Curtis Lemay: 6.3%, 10 EVs

1972 U.S. Presidential Election:

Pres. Robert F. Kennedy/VP Ralph Yarborough: 53%, 387 EVs
CA Gov. Ronald Reagan/Fmr. Gen. Creighton Abrams: 40%, 151 EVs
Fmr. GA Gov. Lester Maddox/Fmr. CA Rep. John G. Schmitz: 4%, 0 EVs

1976 U.S. Presidential Election:

VP Ralph Yarborough/HEW Sec. Julian Bond: 57%, 454 EVs
CT Sen. Lowell Weicker/KS Sen. Bob Dole: 40%%, 84 EVs

1980 U.S. Presidential Election:

Pres. Ralph Yarborough/VP Julian Bond: 44%, 288 EVs
IL Rep. Jesse Jackson/CO Sen. Patricia Schroeder: 45%, 250 EVs
Mr. David McReynolds/Mrs. Maureen Smith: 9%, 0 EVs
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2016, 12:31:32 AM »

If the 2014 House Elections were Presidential:

317-221 Republican win. I guess it's, like, John Kasich/Susan Collins vs. Joe Manchin/Brad Ashford where Kasich somehow doesn't get on the ballot in Massachusetts. I don't have a clue here, tbh.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2016, 12:03:28 PM »

If the 2014 House Elections were Presidential:

317-221 Republican win. I guess it's, like, John Kasich/Susan Collins vs. Joe Manchin/Brad Ashford where Kasich somehow doesn't get on the ballot in Massachusetts. I don't have a clue here, tbh.

That would be more like Kasich vs Clinton

Clinton would destroy a loser like Kasich.

No, she wouldn't
He's a troll. Ignore him.


Anyways, I was curious as to how a Bush Sr. vs. Carter matchup would look like in 2016, so I made a map:



Republican: George H.W. Bush (Connecticut)/Dan Quayle (Indiana) - 50.88%, 417 EVs
Democratic: Jimmy Carter (Georgia)/Walter Mondale (Minnesota) - 47.74%, 121 EVs


Nice map, Kent! Anyway, I was trying to account for the Democrats carrying NE-2 as well as overperforming in West Virginia, but Republicans winning over 60% in Ohio.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2016, 08:32:56 PM »

Not to be outdone by Peebs, I did 2006.

317-221

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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2016, 06:21:31 PM »

Never too many maps, Peebs! This is a forum called "Atlas," after all!
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2016, 07:59:55 PM »

Era of the New Majority:
Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Rob Portman
Scott Walker

Mike Pence
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio

Brian Sandoval
Tom Cotton
Ben Sasse
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2016, 07:04:00 PM »


Basically proportional to population except with NY/NJ punching above their weight.  Less interesting from a political perspective that I would have expected.

Lol at VT though
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2016, 09:23:05 PM »


329-206-3
2012-15 Governor maps on a presidential level. Feel free to think of an electoral scenario.

Once again,



These maps are so weird Tongue
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2016, 08:31:41 PM »


fixed
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2016, 07:07:44 PM »

^^^, but favoring Reagan:

Former California Governor Ronald W. Reagan/Former CIA Director George H.W. Bush: 57.4%, 517 EVs
President Jimmy Carter/Vice President Walter Mondale: 41.0%, 21 EVs
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2016, 08:25:13 PM »



Perot win w/ 283 EVs, cuz why not
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2016, 07:47:30 PM »


cuz why not
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #19 on: February 17, 2016, 05:56:27 PM »

2008 if only those 18-29 voted (assuming uniform state gradients)

Obama 66% / 522 EV
McCain 31-32% / 16 EV

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Nice work, though!
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2016, 07:09:59 PM »

Guess what would cause this map:

Overall PV: Trump/Christie: 57.9%, Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 37.2%



Indictment? Conviction? Tongue
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2016, 07:26:19 PM »

Guess what would cause this map:

Overall PV: Trump/Christie: 57.9%, Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 37.2%



Indictment? Conviction? Tongue

Explain New Mexico then

How did I miss that? Well, the indictment comes just days before the election. In addition, Trump makes YUGE gains among whites, but struggles with Latino voters. A natural disaster, perhaps a wildfire, depresses turnout in rural areas very, very heavily, and lets Clinton pull off an oh-so-narrow semi-upset after weeks of recounts.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2016, 07:45:48 PM »

Guess what would cause this map:

Overall PV: Trump/Christie: 57.9%, Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 37.2%



Indictment? Conviction? Tongue

Explain New Mexico then

How did I miss that? Well, the indictment comes just days before the election. In addition, Trump makes YUGE gains among whites, but struggles with Latino voters. A natural disaster, perhaps a wildfire, depresses turnout in rural areas very, very heavily, and lets Clinton pull off an oh-so-narrow semi-upset after weeks of recounts.

It's the result I got from playing this game as Hillary and making the absolute worst moves I could to sabotage her.  Clinton won 43.91%-43.73%.  Johnson got 10.05%.

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/

Wow. That is very, very weird.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2016, 11:53:51 AM »

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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2016, 05:05:34 PM »

What Could Have Been



Paul vs Christie vs Rubio

If only, if only...
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