A tentative prediction of the 2016 swing states. Any thoughts?
No legitimate reason to believe that Michigan or Minnesota will be swing states. Also, Arizona should be a swing state. Finally, it depends on the candidates- with Hillary, Schweitzer, and Christie on the tickets, Arkansas, Montana, and New Jersey are all swing states. Without any of them, the only one that could potentially be a swing state is Montana and that's only in a race where the Dem candidate gets 350+ EVs.
I'll add Martinez and New Mexico to the category of "ticket swing states". Her approvals are very high and could flip there too. Other than that, you said everything perfectly.