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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Post random maps here (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 978178 times)
PolitiJunkie
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Posts: 1,124


« on: May 19, 2013, 10:26:56 PM »

Clinton/Warner: 417 EV
Fallin/DeMint: 121 EV

Cuomo/Klobuchar: 332 EV
Jindal/Thune: 206 EV

Cuomo/Klobuchar: 310 EV
McDonnell/Huntsman: 228 EV

Rubio/Portman: 281 EV
Biden/Klobuchar: 257 EV

Martinez/Huntsman: 296 EV
O'Malley/Klobuchar: 242 EV
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,124


« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2013, 10:58:34 PM »

... And this is the most exciting map I can come up with.


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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,124


« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2013, 11:59:26 AM »

A tentative prediction of the 2016 swing states.   Any thoughts? 



No legitimate reason to believe that Michigan or Minnesota will be swing states. Also, Arizona should be a swing state. Finally, it depends on the candidates- with Hillary, Schweitzer, and Christie on the tickets, Arkansas, Montana, and New Jersey are all swing states. Without any of them, the only one that could potentially be a swing state is Montana and that's only in a race where the Dem candidate gets 350+ EVs.
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,124


« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2013, 08:30:33 PM »

A tentative prediction of the 2016 swing states.   Any thoughts? 



No legitimate reason to believe that Michigan or Minnesota will be swing states. Also, Arizona should be a swing state. Finally, it depends on the candidates- with Hillary, Schweitzer, and Christie on the tickets, Arkansas, Montana, and New Jersey are all swing states. Without any of them, the only one that could potentially be a swing state is Montana and that's only in a race where the Dem candidate gets 350+ EVs.

I'll add Martinez and New Mexico to the category of "ticket swing states". Her approvals are very high and could flip there too. Other than that, you said everything perfectly.



Definitely- those were just examples. I'd say there is a 60% chance of NM going R if Martinez is the presidential nominee, and a 15% chance of NM going R if Martinez is the VP nominee. I'm sure there are a couple of other ticket swing states I am forgetting, but those are all with less likely Presidential/VP nominees (Evan Bayh, Susan Collins, a popular, moderate/conservative southern Democrat, etc.)
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PolitiJunkie
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Posts: 1,124


« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2013, 09:22:44 PM »



Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)/ former Governor Paul Cellucci (MA) - 341
Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)/ Senator Evan Bayh (IN) - 197

I don't know about that...
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,124


« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2013, 03:01:51 PM »

Romney/Ryan: 295 (50.3%)
Obama/Biden: 243 (48.4%)

LOL
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,124


« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2013, 07:57:38 PM »

1992-2048: The Era of Democratic Dominance

1992


Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Senator Al Gore (D-TN): 370 EV
President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN): 168 EV

1996


President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 379 EV
Senator Bob Dole (R-KS)/Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Jack Kemp (R-NY): 159 EV

2000


Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (R-WY): 271 EV
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT): 267 EV

2004



President George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY): 286 EV
Senator John Kerry (D-MA)/Senator John Edwards (D-NC): 252 EV

2008


Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Joe Biden (D-DE): 365 EV
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK): 173 EV

2012


President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 332 EV
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI): 206 EV

2016


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner (D-VA): 313 EV
Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)/Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM): 225 EV

2020

Former Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)/Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 279 EV
Vice President Mark Warner (D-VA)/Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC): 259 EV

2024


Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 396 EV
President Scott Walker (R-WI)/Vice President Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 142 EV

2028


Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)/Governor Julian Castro1 (D-TX): 366 EV
Senator Pam Bondi2 (R-FL)/Senator Mike Lee (R-UT): 172 EV

2032


President Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)/Vice President Julian Castro (D-TX): 481 EV
Senator Mike Lee (R-UT)/Governor Patrick McHenry (R-NC)3: 57 EV
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,124


« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2013, 07:58:09 PM »

2036


Vice President Julian Castro (D-TX)/Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY)4: 504 EV
Governor Sara Howard (R-NE)5/Senator Dave Hildenbrand (R-MI)6: 34 EV

2040


President Julian Castro (D-TX)/Vice President Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY): 522 EV
Governor Art Linares (R-CT)7/Senator Mia Love (R-UT)8: 16 EV

2044


Governor Takashi Ohno (D-HI)9/Senator Justin Chenette (D-ME)10: 407 EV
Congressman Trey Joy (R-KS)11/Senate Minority Leader Will Weatherford12(R-FL): 131 EV

2048



Senator Joshua Putnam (R-SC)13/Governor Derek Merrin (R-OH)14
President Takashi Ohno (D-HI)/Vice President Justin Chenette (D-ME): 221 EV

2052


President Joshua Putnam (R-SC)/Vice President Derek Merrin (R-OH): 410 EV
Former Governor Justin Seese (D-PA)15/Congreswoman Sasha Obama (D-IL)16: 128 EV

1Elected Governor of Texas in 2018
2Elected U.S. Senator from Florida in 2018
3Elected Governor of North Carolina in 2028
4Elected U.S. Senator from Kentucky in 2014
5Elected Governor of Nebraska in 2030
6Elected U.S. Senator from Michigan in 2018
7Elected Governor of Connecticut in 2034
8Elected U.S. Senator from Utah in 2018
9Elected Governor of Hawaii in 2038
10Elected U.S. Senator from Maine in 2024
11Elected Congressman from Kansas's 1st District in 2030
12Elected U.S. Senator from Florida in 2030; Elected Senate Minority Leader in 2040
13Elected U.S. Senator from South Carolina in 2040
14Elected Governor of Ohio in 2042
15Served as Governor of Pennsylvania from 2038-2046
16Elected Congresswoman from Illinois' 2nd Congressional District in 2044
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,124


« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2013, 08:48:23 PM »

Awesome map series! I"m impressed that you changed all the electoral votes too; I'm planning on doing that for the election at the end of my TL. But FYI I have read that OH and NC are both going to be 17 electoral votes in the 2020s.. if you care Tongue


I'd love to see the 2056 map; I wanna know if Sasha wins!!!

Thanks for the feedback! Just so you know, for the 2020s electoral votes, I used the projections in this article:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/28/what_2010_census_tells_us_about_2020_reapportionment.html

And for the rest, I just kind of guessed/made random decisions.

I'm not sure I'll continue, because it was a ton of work finding super young Mayors/state legislators to fill all the candidacies. Every candidate in every election I did is a real person currently in politics, mostly young Mayors and young State Senators/State Representatives.
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PolitiJunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,124


« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2013, 07:48:16 PM »


Ah, yes, with all his foreign policy experience, Romney would be great for this job! It's too bad he doesn't have any business experience that he likes to talk about, so he couldn't be nominated as Secretary of Treasury or Commerce in a Republican administration.
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