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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 978198 times)
brucejoel99
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« Reply #5850 on: February 26, 2017, 09:15:21 AM »

2016:



Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 36.0%, 190 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 32.1%, 190 EVs
Former Secretary Hillary Clinton (ID-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (ID-VA): 30.2%, 158 EVs

Contingent election:
27 Clinton
15 Sanders
8 Trump

Contingent election:



Former Secretary Hillary Clinton (ID-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (ID-VA): 27 states
Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 15 states
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 8 states
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
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« Reply #5851 on: February 26, 2017, 05:35:03 PM »

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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5852 on: February 28, 2017, 03:05:47 AM »

2016:



Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 36.0%, 190 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 32.1%, 190 EVs
Former Secretary Hillary Clinton (ID-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (ID-VA): 30.2%, 158 EVs

Contingent election:
27 Clinton
15 Sanders
8 Trump
Huh

How does this work? Clinton/Kaine lost eight of those states in the real general election without a major left-wing competitor; is the theory that Sanders and Trump split the WWC and suburbanites/rich people/minorities voted heavily for Clinton?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5853 on: February 28, 2017, 06:38:02 AM »

2016:



Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 36.0%, 190 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 32.1%, 190 EVs
Former Secretary Hillary Clinton (ID-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (ID-VA): 30.2%, 158 EVs

Contingent election:
27 Clinton
15 Sanders
8 Trump
Huh

How does this work? Clinton/Kaine lost eight of those states in the real general election without a major left-wing competitor; is the theory that Sanders and Trump split the WWC and suburbanites/rich people/minorities voted heavily for Clinton?
Pretty much, yeah Cheesy
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5854 on: March 02, 2017, 01:58:22 AM »
« Edited: March 02, 2017, 03:46:04 AM by L.D. Smith »

Every Democrat with 53% PV* since 2000

*Roughly speaking

2016



Clinton/Kaine - 412 EV

Trump/Pence - 126 EV

2012



Obama/Biden: 348 EV
Romney/Ryan: 190 EV

2008 (No Adjustment needed)



Obama/Biden: 365 EV
McCain/Palin: 173 EV

2004



Kerry/Edwards 355 EV
Bush/Cheney 183 EV


2000




Gore/Lieberman: 392 EV

Bush/Cheney: 146 EV
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp
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E: -6.52, S: -4.96


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« Reply #5855 on: March 02, 2017, 10:06:17 AM »

2019



General James Mattis (I-WA) - 91.5%, 538 EV's
Others - 8.5%, 0 EV's

2016



Former Governor Jeb Bush (IR-FL)/Governor Susana Martinez (IR-NM): 68.1%, 538 EVs
Former Secretary Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 18.9%, 0 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) - 13.0%, 0 EVs
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5856 on: March 02, 2017, 01:22:45 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2017, 04:20:13 PM by L.D. Smith »

GOP with 53% of the vote since 2000

2016




Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 387 EV

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 151 EV


2012



Romney/Ryan: 352 EV
Obama/Biden: 186 EV


2008



McCain/Palin: 326 EV
Obama/Biden: 212 EV

2004



Bush/Cheney: 355 EV
Kerry/Edwards: 183 EV


2000



Bush/Cheney: 423 EV
Gore/Lieberman: 115 EV
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DPKdebator
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E: -1.81, S: 3.65

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« Reply #5857 on: March 02, 2017, 07:25:43 PM »

I don't see how Bush '00 does so much better than Bush '04.
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mencken
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« Reply #5858 on: March 02, 2017, 07:30:21 PM »

I don't see how Bush '00 does so much better than Bush '04.

Third parties took up 4% in 2000.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5859 on: March 03, 2017, 09:13:25 PM »

If America had political parties like Ireland:

Soldiers and Republican Party (conservatives) - 173 EV
Family Party (liberal conservatism, Christian democracy) - 166 EV
We Ourselves (left-wing) - 86 EV
Labour Party - 25 EV
Other party - 10 EV
Independents - 49 EV


If America had political parties like the UK:

Conservative Party - 273 EV
Labour Party - 189 EV
American National Party (left-wing nationalists) - 26 EV
Liberal Democrats - 7 EV
Others/independents - 50 EV
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Intell
Junior Chimp
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E: -6.71, S: -1.24

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« Reply #5860 on: March 03, 2017, 09:33:15 PM »

If America had political parties like Ireland:

Soldiers and Republican Party (conservatives) - 173 EV
Family Party (liberal conservatism, Christian democracy) - 166 EV
We Ourselves (left-wing) - 86 EV
Labour Party - 25 EV
Other party - 10 EV
Independents - 49 EV


If America had political parties like the UK:

Conservative Party - 273 EV
Labour Party - 189 EV
American National Party (left-wing nationalists) - 26 EV
Liberal Democrats - 7 EV
Others/independents - 50 EV

No.
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Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5861 on: March 03, 2017, 10:47:51 PM »

England



Conservatives: 278  EV
Labour: 208 EV
UKIP: 41 EV
Lib Dems: 5 EV
Green Party: 4 EV






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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #5862 on: March 03, 2017, 11:55:12 PM »

I found an old 2016 prediction of mine from September 30th, and compared it to the final margin in each state.



Margin of error (%):
1-2 - 30%
3-4 - 40%
5-6  - 50%
7-8 - 60%
9-10 - 70%
11-12 - 80%
>12 - 90%

This was before the McMullin surge so it skewed my numbers in Utah and Idaho.
Best states were obviously Georgia, Maryland, Nevada and Washington where I predicted the margin exactly.
Worst state was North Dakota, with an error of D+18 (!!!) - I had R+18 when it was actually R+36. Honorable mentions to NE-03 with D+15 and South Dakota with D+13. States with the largest error in the other direction were California and Massachusetts, each with R+5.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5863 on: March 04, 2017, 08:53:05 AM »


Why? In both maps I tried to give each party a number of EVs proportional to their parliament seats.
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NHI
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« Reply #5864 on: March 04, 2017, 04:12:37 PM »

✓ Gov. Romney/Gov. Reagan: 334 (42.2%)
Vice Pres. Humphrey/Sen. Muskie: 151 (41.4%)
Gov. Wallace/Ret. General LeMay: 53 (15.4%)

✓ Pres. Romney/Vice Pres. Reagan: 535 (62.1%)
Sen. McGovern/Sen. Eagleton: (35.7%)
Other: 0 (2.2%) 

✓ Vice Pres. Reagan/Rep. Ford: 405 (53.0%)
Sen. Gore/Sen. Mondale: (44.4%)
Other: 0 (2.6%) 

✓ Sen. Kennedy/Gov. Carter: 274 (49.0%)
Pres. Reagan/Vice Pres. Ford: 264 (49.7%)
Other: 0 (1.3%) 

✓ Sen. Bush/Sen. Dole: 440 (55.1%)
Pres. Kennedy/Vice Pres. Carter: (43.0%)
Other: 0 (2.8%) 

✓ Pres. Bush/ Vice Pres. Dole: 482 (58.6%)
Gov. Cuomo/Gov. Clinton: 56 (40.0%)
Other: 0 (1.4%) 

✓ Sen. Bentsen/Gov. Dukakis: 357 (40.9%)
Vice Pres. Dole/Sec. Kemp: 144 (34.8%)
Businessman Perot/Ret. General Stockdale: 37 (22.9%) 

✓ Pres. Bentsen/Dukakis: 324 (51.0%)
Gov. Rumsfeld/Rep. Cheney: 214 (47.5%)
Other: 0 (1.5%) 

✓ Businessman Trump/Ret. General Powell: 310 (39.7%)
Sen. Romney/Gov. Huckabee: 117 (32.2%)
Vice Pres. Dukakis/Sen. Feinstein: 111 (27.0%)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5865 on: March 04, 2017, 09:25:53 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 04:52:58 AM by L.D. Smith »

2016 with 60%*

*approximately

A) Hillaryslide



Clinton/Kaine: 475 EV, 60% PV

Trump/Pence: 63 EV, 34% PV

Closest States: Utah, South Dakota

B) Trumpslide



Trump/Pence: 453 EV, 60% EV
Clinton/Kaine:  85 EV, 34 % pv

Closest States:  New York, Vermont
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5866 on: March 05, 2017, 04:18:22 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 04:46:30 AM by L.D. Smith »

2012 w/ appx. 60%

A) Obamaslide



Obama/Biden 464 EV, 60% PV
Romney/Ryan 64 EV, 38% PV

Closest States: Louisiana, South Dakota

B) Romneyslide



Romney/Ryan: 499 EV, 60% EV
Obama/Biden: 39 EV, 38% EV

Closest States: Maryland, New York
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5867 on: March 05, 2017, 04:44:52 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 05:39:15 PM by L.D. Smith »

2008 with 60%

A) Obamaslide



Obama/Biden: 463 EV, 60% pv
McCain/Palin: 75 EV, 39% pv

Closest States: West Virginia, Kansas

B) McCain-slide



McCain/Palin: 528 EV, 60% pv
Obama/Biden: 10 EV, 39% pv

Closest: Rhode Island, Vermont
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5868 on: March 06, 2017, 07:58:44 PM »

1860 - Runoff Election
Results - First Round

Abraham Lincoln and Hannibal Hamlin (Republican) 2,161,359 votes
Stephen Douglas and Herschel V. Johnson (Democratic) 1,887,656
Spoilt   636,015
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Blackacre
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« Reply #5869 on: March 07, 2017, 08:18:25 AM »

Wouldn't Breckenridge be the runoff nominee?
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5870 on: March 07, 2017, 09:18:54 AM »

Wouldn't Breckenridge be the runoff nominee?
Not in a popular vote system; Douglas outpolled Breckinridge nationally by a quite substantial margin.
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tomhguy
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E: 0.90, S: -1.00

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« Reply #5871 on: March 07, 2017, 01:02:34 PM »

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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5872 on: March 07, 2017, 08:51:16 PM »

2016 election if the 10 largest counties in each state (or, half of them if the state had 10 or less counties) are removed:


Donald Trump - 469 EV
Hillary Clinton - 69 EV

If anyone's curious to see what was removed, here's the link.
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Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5873 on: March 08, 2017, 05:36:48 AM »


Why? In both maps I tried to give each party a number of EVs proportional to their parliament seats.

The states would in no way vote like that.
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tomhguy
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« Reply #5874 on: March 09, 2017, 03:37:47 PM »



Have a guess. It's a tricky one, but you can work it out.
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